Instability in the ex-Soviet republics taking advantage of the Russian operation in Ukraine

The Ukrainian push against the Russian invaders revives latent regional conflicts around the country of Vladimir Putin. After the hostilities registered between Armenia and Azerbaijan these days ago, the border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is experiencing violent days. For observers of hostile international behavior It has not gone unnoticed by Russia that Vladimir Putin’s country has allegedly resorted to convict conscription to fight in Ukraine. In the absence of a general mobilization in Russia, the Russian Army seems to have run out of steam, not only in the illegal invasion of Ukraine, but also in nearby countries where it has a traditional military presence and where Moscow has played a supporting role. peacemaker country. The recent fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where dozens of deaths have been reported on both sides, and the most recent clashes on the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are a symptom of all this. At least Stefan Meister, responsible in Berlin for the International Order program of the German Council for Foreign Relations (DGAP for its German acronym), thinks so. A building and a tank can be seen on fire; suddenly, an explosion occurs in the spot where the vehicle is burning (ammo detonation?). pic.twitter.com/ggsgE4hNo0— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) September 16, 2022 “What has happened in those countries and the war against Ukraine is related. Russia is not only greatly weakened in Ukraine, but also as a stabilizer and as an international security actor in the post-Soviet space,” Meister tells NIUS. Due to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia “has had to withdraw troops from countries such as Armenia, but also from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in Georgia,” this expert on post-Soviet conflicts abounds. Between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia has played a role of peacemaker. In 1994 and 2020, it is through Moscow that both countries of the Caucasus achieved the end of the hostilities of the two wars that have pitted Armenians and Azeris. This region is especially important for Russia since it serves as a “geopolitical buffer”, in the words of the analyst at Antonia Colibasanu, from the US consultancy firm Geopolitical Futures. Those terms refer to the many interests that converge there, those of Russia, Turkey and Iran, nations with borders in the Caucasus, and those of the United States and Europe. We must not forget that European countries, such as Germany, support the candidacy of Georgia – another of the Caucasian countries – to join the European Union. Disinformation wants Georgia to attack RussiaGeorgia has yet to undertake reforms in order to be granted EU candidate status. Not in vain, this week, during his visit to Berlin, the Georgian Prime Minister, Irakli Garibaschwili, listened as Chancellor Olaf Scholz told him: “On the way to the European Union we help with great pleasure.” has been telling these days that the country was preparing militarily for a possible attempt to gain control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two territories occupied by Russia since the war that Putin waged against this other Caucasian nation in 2008. Stefan Meister, without However, he does not lend credence to any suggestion that Georgia will seek to take advantage of Russia’s visible military weakening from its invasion of Ukraine. “There is a lot of misinformation right now. I don’t think there is any real interest in Georgia in doing something against South Ossetia or Abkhazia,” says Meister. He was in the Caucasus country a week ago to meet with country representatives, civil society organizations and other experts. “It is misinformation to say that Georgia now wants to wage war on Russia, nonsense,” he comments. Georgia, with part of its territory under Russian control, in his opinion, if that “misinformation” has circulated, it is because of the existence of interests in polarizing Georgian political debate. “The president of Georgia, Salomé Zurabishvili, has already said on many occasions that her country has no interest in entering into conflict with Russia and that it makes no sense to do something against Abkhazia or South Ossetia,” Meister adds. 14 years of the war that Russia waged – which came to the support of the self-proclaimed pro-Russian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia – against Georgia. The result of that war is that today “part of the Georgian territory is under the control of Russia”, as Scholz recalled with Garibaschwili this week at the Federal Chancellery. That is why Scholz described Georgia, among other things, as a country with an “experience” similar to the one that Ukraine has been going through since 2014 and, above all, since the beginning of the invasion at the end of February this year. In other parts of the post-Soviet space, Russian control has been exercised in a different way, as evidenced by the recent peacemaking efforts, on the one hand, between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and, on the other, between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. “Towards a new disintegration of the post-Soviet space” These two Central Asian countries, also post-Soviet republics, have experienced new fighting on their border this week. This is nothing new, since it is estimated that 300 kilometers of border are still being disputed. There have already been clashes on that border. Nor is it really surprising when one knows that, according to Meister from the DGAP, “Russia is so busy with Ukraine that it is not in a position to intervene in some of these countries, that is why there are those who have the impression that they have room for manoeuvre”. In his opinion, “the Ukraine crisis means the end of the Russian empire, a new disintegration of the post-Soviet space and an acceleration in that disintegration process because Russia will end up very weakened”. Putin himself tried to fight against that same image of a weakened country leader this Friday, in the framework of the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization held in Uzbekistan. Putin was seen there with his Kyrgyz counterparts, Sadyr Japarov, and Tajik, Emomali Rahmon, just a few hours after seeing images of a war on the border between these two Central Asian countries. After the start of the Russian war against Ukraine, it was thought that other countries could take the example of Moscow, attacking Western interests. Less was it thought that, in reality, Putin was also exposing the interests of Russia in his neighborhood.