Wagner recruiting in a prison: a “show of strength and an admission of weakness” from the Kremlin – FRANCE 24

Published on: 09/17/2022 – 14:51Modified on: 09/17/2022 – 14:52 The video showing Evguéni Prigojine, the leader of the Wagner group, in full recruitment operation within a Russian prison 800 kilometers away of Moscow, is a sign of weakness on the part of Russia – and of its difficulties in finding men to fight in Ukraine. Explanations. A man, identified as Evguéni Prigojine, the leader of the Wagner group, reputed to be close to Putin, harangues prisoners. In a video published Wednesday, September 14, the supposed financier of the Wagner militia offers dozens of men gathered in the courtyard of a Russian penal colony a martial “deal”. “If you do six months in Ukraine, you are free. But if you get there and decide it’s not for you, we’ll execute you,” he said coldly. And the man detailed his conditions: “The first sin is desertion. No one can be taken prisoner. No one backs down, no one surrenders. When you are trained, you will be told how to behave. You will be told about two grenades which you will need to have with you if you are caught.” The prisoners have five minutes to make their choice. Wagner’s recruitment methods in prisons were already known, as was the presence of his mercenaries in Ukraine, where they are notably accused of having participated in the Boutcha massacre. But this is the first time that Evguéni Prigojine publicly acknowledges his links with the militia. de la Russie (ed. La Découverte), this video is both a “show of strength and an admission of weakness” on the part of the Kremlin.” It is not certain that Prigojine has mastered the dissemination of this video. It could have leaked without his consent, explains the researcher, but if the broadcast has been authorized, we can think that Vladimir Putin wants to show that he has other tricks up his sleeve, that he still has resources despite his difficulties. in Ukraine. Mercenarism is now officially one.” .It is indeed unthinkable that Evgeni Pri gozhin took the initiative to recruit in a prison without the approval of the Kremlin. The famous paramilitary formation, known in particular for its participation in battles such as insurgencies in the Central African Republic and Mali, had until then played on the ambiguity of its relations with the Russian state. This now seems to be over.” If he chooses to publicly show Prigojine recruiting prisoners, Putin is trying to reassure the Russian population, continues Lukas Aubin. This is a propaganda operation, he shows that he still has solutions at hand, it can also impress Westerners and Ukrainians, but it remains a mark of weakness.” The need to resort to paramilitary organizations indeed testifies to the bad situation of the Russian army, unable to recruit enough men to fight in Ukraine. The Kremlin still describes the conflict in Ukraine as a “special operation” and not a war, which prevents it from triggering a general mobilization. Difficulties recruiting the army “Sending Wagner to recruit in prisons shows that there are not enough volunteers, bounces Jeff Hawns, specialist in Russian military questions and external consultant for the New Lines Institute, an American center of geopolitical research The Russian military has a terrible reputation, most people say they would rather go to jail than the army…while Wagner still enjoys the prestige gained from his overseas operations. does not bode well.” The recruitment session could also be a sign of tensions within the regime: “There must be internal conflicts within Russian institutions, suggests Jeff Harms. Yevgeny Prigojine considers that the Russian army failed in Ukraine, so he told Putin “let me manage with my guys, I’ll be better off”. Wagner will be “negligible” on the battlefield.” W Winning is not an elite formation, it’s a collection of social cases. They were certainly very effective on the battlefields, but they faced [avant la guerre en Ukraine, NDLR] poorly trained and poorly equipped opponents. Nothing to do with a regular army. “Nevertheless, there are other cards in Vladimir Putin’s hands, remarks Lukas Aubin: general mobilization and nuclear weapons. But for the moment, he says, this operation of recruitment says something about the Kremlin’s strategy: “Recourse to Wagner allows the Russian power not to call for general mobilization, says the researcher. This recruitment operation also took place in a prison located in the Republic of the Maris, a region where ethnic minorities live. It’s a way of keeping the Russian population at a distance and keeping it in a passive posture.”