The energy crisis is reshuffling the cards for the 2023 budget – Le Monde

Gabriel Attal, minister in charge of public accounts, and Bruno Le Maire, minister of the economy, leave the council of ministers, at the Elysée, on July 7, 2022. JEAN-CLAUDE COUTAUSSE FOR “THE WORLD” A “responsible budget “, which allows both to “protect the French” against the effects of inflation and the energy crisis, to maintain public finances, and to respect the economic policy ambitions of the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron: it is the thorny roadmap that Bruno Le Maire and Gabriel Attal began to unfold on Tuesday, September 13, with a view to preparing the finance bill (PLF) for 2023. The Minister of the Economy and his counterpart delegate to public accounts, who will present the draft text to the Council of Ministers on September 26, were to send Wednesday to the High Council of Public Finances the main economic assumptions on which it is built. While the main lines of this first budget of the new mandate seemed to be taking shape this summer, the last few weeks have turned everything upside down. New surge in energy prices against a backdrop of war in Ukraine, spread of inflation to food prices, threat of recession in Germany and China, fear of the indirect effects of the tightening of monetary policy on the economy: “the economic situation is characterized by strong European and international tensions”, had to admit Bruno Le Maire, while repeating, as he has done since the start of the school year, that “France is resisting” and that there is no question of “giving in to catastrophism. Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers Finance bill: the government’s first avenues for the budget Result: France’s growth will expect at least 2.5% this year, as expected, but Bercy has on the other hand been forced to lower its target for 2023, until then to + 1.4%. The increase in gross domestic product (GDP) is only expected to be 1% next year, while inflation should remain high at least until February, indicated the Minister of the Economy. It is still forecast at + 4.2% in 2023, and + 5.3% this year (in July, the government was only counting on 5%). “This prediction [de 1 % de croissance du PIB] suppose we manage to spend the winter in acceptable conditions. This is why we have anticipated the implementation of measures of sobriety, load shedding or the revival of nuclear production, ”we justify at Bercy. Public debt is expected to reach 111.5% of GDP in 2022 and 111.2% next year, according to ministry projections. “Slow down the tax cut” How, under these conditions, can we meet the public finance objectives set by the executive, and in particular the 5% public deficit in 2023, a prelude to a return to 3% at the end of the five-year term? promised by the Head of State? You have 59.33% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.