ANALYSIS | A surprising week of Ukrainian successes and Russian failures on the Eastern Front

Zelensky celebrates the recovery of 30 villages 0:41 (CNN) — The past week has seen a stunning transformation of the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, as a swift armored offensive by Ukrainian forces broke through defense lines. Russian forces and recovered more than 3,000 square kilometers of territory. That is more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations in Ukraine since April. Although the offensive was brilliantly conceived and executed, it was also successful due to Russian shortcomings. Throughout the Kharkiv region, Russian units were poorly organized and equipped, with many offering little resistance. Their failures, and their disorderly retreat to the east, have made the goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special military operation of taking all of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions considerably more elusive. Over the weekend, the Russian outflow continued from border areas that had been occupied since March. Villages located within five kilometers of the border raised the Ukrainian flag. The collapse of Russian defenses sparked recriminations among influential Russian military bloggers and Russian state media personalities. As the Ukrainian flag has been raised in community after community over the past few days, one question has been raised: how does the Kremlin respond? A blitzkrieg Ukrainian officials had telegraphed that an offensive was imminent… but not where it actually took place. There was much talk of a counterattack in the south, with even US officials speaking of Ukrainian operations to “shape the battlefield” in Kherson. Russian reinforcements – perhaps as many as 10,000 – poured into the region for several weeks. There was indeed a Ukrainian assault on Kherson, but one whose intention appears to have been to pin down Russian forces, while the real effort occurred hundreds of miles to the north. It was a disinformation operation the Russians could have been proud of. Kateryna Stepanenko of the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based analytical group, says the deception worked. “Ukrainian military officials reported that elements from the (Russian) Eastern Military District that had previously supported offensive operations towards Sloviansk had redeployed to the Southern Axis,” she told CNN. Her replacements were clearly not up to the task: a mix, according to Stepanenko, of “Cossack volunteers, volunteer units, DNR/LNR militia units, and the Russian Rosgvardia (National Guard).” These forces were not sufficient to defend a complex and extensive front line.” The Ukrainians chose the weakest point of the Russian defenses for their initial attack: an area controlled by the Luhansk militia, with Russian National Guard units further back. They were no match for a highly mobile armored assault that quickly made artillery irrelevant Igor Strelkov, former head of the Donetsk People’s Republic militia and now a scathing critic of Russian military shortcomings, pointed to the poor training of these units and “the exceptional caution of the actions of the Russian aviation”. In short, the Russian front-line units were left hanging without sufficient air support. Multiple videos geolocated and analyzed by CNN, as well as local accounts, describe a chaotic withdrawal of the units with large amounts of ammunition and materiel abandoned The poor quality of Russian defenses along a critical north-south axis sustaining the Donetsk offensive is difficult to understand. Once underway, the intention of the Ukrainian offensive was very clear: destroy that resupply artery. In three days they had succeeded, among other things because the Russian reinforcements were slow to mobilize. Ukrainian flags affixed to statues in a square in Balakliya on Saturday. The recriminations begin The Russian Defense Ministry tried on Saturday to present the abandonment of Kharkiv as a planned redirection of efforts towards the Donetsk region, but in reality it complicates those efforts. Until this week, the Russians could attack the Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk from three directions: north, east and south. Now the northern axis is gone: the threat to and around Sloviansk’s industrial belt is greatly diminished, as is the prospect of the Ukrainian defenses being encircled. In short, the battlefield in eastern Ukraine has been redrawed in days. The most influential — and perhaps surprising — public critic of the situation was Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who has supplied thousands of fighters to the offensive. In a Telegram post on Sunday, he said that he would be contacting senior Defense Ministry officials to explain his message. “Clearly mistakes were made. I think they will draw some conclusions,” he said. Insinuating the disorganization of the commands, Kadyrov said that “if the Russian General Staff did not want to leave, the (troops) would not withdraw”, but the Russian soldiers “did not have adequate military training” and that led them to withdraw. Influential Russian military bloggers have been even more forceful. Zakhar Prilepin, whose Telegram channel has more than 250,000 subscribers, reposted a comment in which he described the events in Kharkiv as a “catastrophe” and a major intelligence failure. Video captures a car that is saved for seconds from an explosion in Ukraine 0:44 “Now we can see the result of the criminal irresponsibility of those responsible for this direction,” says the message, before concluding: “The special military operation has ended long ago. There is a war going on.” Another pro-Putin blogger who goes by the name of Kholmogorov republished an equally scathing account of Telegram’s Partizan channel from the front, essentially accusing Russian authorities of abandoning troops. “The soldiers were on foot with a machine gun and a sack. Abandoned by the command, not knowing the way, they walked at random,” the message said. The author of the message, who describes himself as a Russian Orthodox nationalist, says that as the hatred of the enemy grows, “the hatred of the government and the leadership grows even more.” Adding his own thoughts, Kholmogorov said: “Sir, he saves Russian soldiers from blows from the front and even more so from blows from behind.” A similar analysis came from Pyotr Lundstrem’s Telegram channel. “There are NO thermal cameras, NO bulletproof vests, NO reconnaissance equipment, NO secure communications, NO enough helicopters, NO first aid kits in the military.” Referring to this weekend’s commemorations in Russia for Moscow Day, the city’s anniversary, he added: “They’re celebrating a party of a billion. What’s wrong with them?” On Saturday, as the defeat continued, Putin inaugurated a Ferris wheel in Moscow. The Institute for the Study of War notes that the “announcement of the withdrawal further alienated the milblogger communities and Russian nationalists who support the Kremlin’s grandiose vision of capturing the entirety of Ukraine.” Ukrainian forces have liberated the city of Balakliya. Putin’s Next Move Prominent media figures in Russia are trying to pass off this week’s calamity as a planned operation. TV presenter Vladimir Soloviev reposted a comment on Telegram insisting that “the enemy, believing in an easy breakthrough on a given sector of the front, falls into a trap.” “Russian units are currently regrouping on purpose,” the commentary added, though there is little indication of this. This raises the question of how the Kremlin is continuing the war after suffering its worst week of the entire campaign. It appears to be lacking high-quality units. Some existing battalion tactical groups were reconstituted; volunteer battalions were raised throughout Russia to form a Third Army Corps. US officials say the Russians are running out of ammunition, and have even turned to North Korea for supplies. Stepanenko of the Institute for the Study of War told CNN that the remarkable success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive will force a reevaluation of the use of the new army corps. Stepanenko, who studies the recruitment and organization of Russia’s armed forces, says the Russians “could still try to use these units to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv, although rushing inexperienced and poorly trained units into such operations would be a mistake.” very dangerous endeavor.” He believes that, given Russia’s need for new manpower, “Russian forces are likely to be deploying these elements directly to the front lines in any case, based on reports that some volunteer battalions are already fighting on the front lines.” from the Kherson front. The Russian military can still bring considerable power with its rocket, artillery, and missile forces. But despite a high command reshuffling, its ground operations appear to be poorly organized, with little autonomy for commanders. The last week exposed motivation and leadership issues. Russian bloggers who have supported the offensive say a radical rethink is needed. One of them commented: “A change of approach in the war in Ukraine is necessary. Mobilization of the economy and industry. Creation of a center of political control of the war.” Strelkov came to the same conclusion, saying that it is time to “start fighting for real (with martial law, the mobilization of the army and the economy)”. Throughout the conflict, Putin has avoided a general mobilization, which could be unpopular at home. It is impossible to know if the Kremlin will now redouble its efforts to complete the special military operation or start looking for a negotiated solution. The first option seems like a difficult task, given the events of the last week; the second would be humiliating. The third possibility, perhaps the most likely, is that Russia persists in its attack inch by inch, seizing little additional territory. But now he faces an adversary with the winds in his favor and new infusions of Western military aid gearing up for the winter months. Ukraine’s advances on the battlefield rejuvenated allied support, and new pledges of long-term support were made at a meeting in Germany this weekend.