Danielle’s remains approach Spain: will the peninsula become a ‘hurricane graveyard’?

The remains of Hurricane Danielle are going to arrive in the form of a storm, and the same could happen with Earl: will there be more? For this to happen, certain atmospheric circumstances must occur in the Atlantic: for now, they are occurring The NHC is also closely monitoring two tropical waves, which “are usually the germs of tropical storms and hurricanes” “Danielle’s remains are going to die with us, and thanks to that gentle death, rains are going to come to us. It’s great news.” Francisco Martín, meteorologist at Meteored, talks about the former Hurricane Danielle, now a storm. And he explains that he is not the only one to watch out for. The remains of another hurricane, named Earl, may also end up reaching the peninsula, although in this case the uncertainty is very high because it is still very far away. “It looks like the remnants of former Hurricane Earl could end up west of the peninsula as well, with all the uncertainties in sight. We could become a cemetery for former hurricanes, this September”, warns the meteorologist. For this to happen, certain circumstances have to occur, which are happening right now. He explains them like this: a blocking anticyclone in Greenland, “which is a wall”: it prevents the passage of storms and cyclones coming from the south. If it were to withdraw, the tropical storms or hurricanes would go to the British Isles or to Iceland, the Azores anticyclone, which is always there, a corridor in mid-latitudes that leads tropical cyclones to the peninsula “These are the circumstances that occur these days, those that bring us debris from hurricanes,” explains Martín. And if these circumstances remained in time, “the Iberian Peninsula would be a cemetery, an area where the remains of hurricanes die.” The problem is that it is not possible to know if all these factors are going to continue there, the predictions do not go very far. Two former hurricanes arriving as storms “According to current predictions, which last up to 10 days, the atmospheric circumstances dominated by these factors will be there for now,” he warns. “But this can change in 10 days.” What it does seem is that Earl is going to follow a path quite similar to that of Danielle, although his training has been very different. “The meteorological circumstances are taking place so that the two hurricanes that have formed so far appear at the gates of the Iberian Peninsula. Danielle, on Sunday. And then Earl, the one who comes after, who is the second of the season and the most intense so far. The numerical models also take it to the west of the peninsula, although with some uncertainty still”, warns Martín. The AEMET spokesman, Rubén del Campo, warns of the same. “Earl has been following a route quite similar to Danielle’s, although its formation conditions have not been similar at all. In principle, it is possible that it will follow that trajectory and, once it has become a storm, it is not ruled out that it could reach the west from the peninsula at the end of next week.” Martin explains that one of the factors that is taking place for this to happen – and the most important, because it is where the hurricanes gain strength – “the Atlantic water temperature anomaly , it will last between 8 and 10 more days”. It is what the current predictions say. “If this is true, we would have the remains of Hurricane Earl also arriving as a storm.” Whether the forecasts come true or not, it can be said that “September is beginning in an anomalous, atypical way” in the North Atlantic, acknowledges the meteorologist. Can more hurricanes come after Danielle and Earl? And then what?: the NHC monitors two tropical waves “That is already more difficult to say, the NHC does not make predictions for more than 5 days, we do not know”, Martin warns. The NHC, the US National Hurricane Center, which is the reference agency, closely monitors everything in the tropical zone that is likely to become a tropical storm or hurricane. That is, “they monitor the germs of tropical storms, and also those that are already formed (like Earl)”. Not Danielle anymore, because it’s a storm. And in that surveillance, for a few days they have also had their eye on “two tropical waves that, in principle, could move around the Azores anticyclone.” We see it on his Twitter profile. But what is a tropical wave? Martín explains that “a tropical wave is an area of ​​low pressure that forms in the tropics, far to the south of the Canary Islands, in the area of ​​Cape Verde”. And that they watch them because “they are usually germs of tropical storms and hurricanes.” They may or may not be, but you have to watch them, because they can evolve to that. “In fact, Earl was formed from a tropical wave,” recalls the meteorologist. The NHC works with probabilities, and right now they give 40% to the formation of a tropical storm in one of the waves, and 20% to the other, according to Martín. They update their predictions every six hours, so you will have to be very vigilant these days. In this image shared by the Twitter profile “Cazatormentas” the panorama of this Friday in a very active Atlantic was very clear. For now, and “5 days ahead, the NHC estimates that Earl can become a category 2 hurricane 3, because it is going to intensify”, explains Martín. As for what comes next, and how these tropical waves will evolve, we have to wait. But if they follow in Danielle and Earl’s footsteps and end up becoming hurricanes, they could feed that ‘graveyard’ again. Rains at last, thanks Danielle What is clear now is that Danielle will bring rain to the peninsula. And the good ones, the ones that will help alleviate the drought somewhat, not torrential ones. “The good thing is that former Hurricane Danielle is loaded with subtropical-type humidity, it brings rains that soak the ground. Now it is a very efficient Atlantic storm”, says Martín. The also Meteored meteorologist Víctor González insists on the same. He explains that, once it enters and positions itself over the west of the peninsula, “it will favor the arrival of a river of humidity of subtropical origin, with a high humidity content and very high values ​​of precipitable water, which will allow the fronts to and rainfall associated with the storm are very efficient”. What is a river of moisture? She explains it: “a large air mass with a long journey over subtropical seas and therefore warm, with a high moisture content and with a lot of potential to leave intense precipitation.” For now, this weekend, Danielle brings us heat, at drive warm winds from the south. But on Sunday night, the storm will enter Galicia and on Monday it will already unload abundant rains, first in the entire west of the peninsula and from Tuesday they will spread to the east. On Wednesday they will cease. According to the meteorologists at ‘eltiempo.es’, “it has been a long time since the expected amounts have been recorded, which in many cases may exceed 40-50 liters per square meter and occasionally 100 mm”. In addition, these rains will extend to almost the entire peninsula and “could help alleviate the meteorological drought suffered by the southwestern area: both Extremadura and Andalusia may have generous rains.” And watch the wind, too. “The wind on Monday and Tuesday will also be highlighted.” Del Campo sums up what is coming this way: “Danielle is going to arrive like a deep storm that is going to leave quite abundant rains, wind and a marked drop in temperatures. A fully autumnal atmosphere.”