Ukrainian counter-offensive: kyiv could “capture Kherson before winter”

Published on: 07/09/2022 – 14:06 According to General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, the Ukrainians, who are currently leading a counter-offensive in the south of the country, could seize the entire right bank of the Dnieper by October, including the city of Kherson. It had been in preparation since the beginning of the summer. The Ukrainian counter-offensive, launched a week ago in the Kherson region, in the south of the country, seems to be bearing fruit. Despite the lack of information on the forces involved and the strategy adopted by kyiv, several clues suggest that the Russians are suffering from the Ukrainian initiative. President Volodymyr Zelensky has thus demanded the resumption of several localities, while Moscow has canceled the preparations for the referendum on the annexation by Russia of the regions of Kherson and Zaporijjia. Should this be seen as a turning point in the conflict which has lasted for nearly seven months ? Do the Ukrainians have the means to continue this offensive and put the Russian army in difficulty? Answers with General Dominique Trinquand, specialist in defense issues and former head of the French military mission to the UN.France 24: What do we know about the mysterious counter-offensive led by kyiv in recent days?General Dominique Trinquand: The Ukrainians have created a total blackout on all information. Journalists are banned. It is therefore very difficult to know where the progress of the troops is. However, we know that the offensives take place on almost the entire southern front line. It is believed that the Ukrainians are testing the Russian defenses in order to create breaches and then send reinforcements. Currently, the Russian axis of effort is in the Donbass. The Ukrainian axis of effort is in the Kherson region. What can also be said is that the Ukrainians methodically prepared this offensive and concentrated the means to succeed. They began by disrupting the Russian logistics system using long-range artillery hitting depots, communication nodes, command posts, as well as bridges over the Dnieper. This is called “shaping the battlefield”. Now, the Russian troops have great difficulty in being supplied. Should we see in the acts of sabotage perpetrated behind enemy lines in recent weeks a part of this strategy intended to “shape the battlefield”? Of course. In-depth actions contribute to this objective. Whether with infiltrated guerrillas, special forces, heavy artillery, even the air force which intervened in force last week.>> To read: The explosions in Crimea recall the role of the Ukrainian resistance in the territory occupiedThis also means that the heavy armaments demanded by kyiv have arrived at the front and are effective. Are there enough? That’s another question. Can we say that this offensive is working and that it manages to put the Russians in difficulty? The first indication of success we have is the speech of President Zelensky, which indicates that the offensive is progressing well. . We can assume that if he starts talking about it despite the news blackout, it’s because it’s true. The second clue concerns the reactions of the Russians with the cancellation of the referendum on annexation, but also the reinforcements sent to the south from Donbass and Crimea. The Russians seem surprised by the method used. The destruction of ammunition depots and logistical nodes, in particular the railway lines, destabilized them considerably. Today, if the forces stationed west of the Dnieper no longer receive shells, they will no longer be able to defend themselves. If they no longer receive food, it will be dramatic for some units. Some Ukrainian officers assure that many Russian soldiers prefer to flee without fighting in front of the advance of their troops. Does this seem credible to you? It seems credible and matches up with a certain amount of information. This also explains why President Putin recently appealed to the Donbass separatists. There seems to be a loss of confidence in these Russian units, most of which have been in combat for four or five months, have not been replaced and are probably in poor condition. The Russians have big human resources problems right now. They try to recruit with all their might but President Putin, not wanting to declare war, cannot mobilize. He wants to continue to give the impression that everything is going normally. I think that before winter, the Ukrainians could seize the entire right bank of the Dnieper including the city of Kherson. It should be remembered that this city fell very quickly by surprise at the beginning of March, but that the population is not at all favorable to the Russian occupation. If Ukraine managed to achieve this objective, it would succeed in major blow because for the first time since the beginning of the conflict, Russia would have retreated. There could also be a number of Russians taken prisoner, which would be very damaging for President Putin.