Feijóo’s PP adds four tenths to its advantage over the PSOE

Alberto Núñez Feijóo can boast that the new political course is beginning and he is facing the imminent electoral cycle as he closed the previous ones: at the head of the polls. September barometer 40dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER places the popular ones as winners of a possible general election with 27.9% of the votes and with 1.5 points of advantage over the PSOE, a drawing similar to that of the July poll, when the PP took the lead for the first time since the 2019 elections. The so-called Feijóo effect seems to take hold (it grows half a point compared to July, when it obtained 27.4%) while the Socialists keep their vote expectation practically intact (they go from 26, 3% to 26.4%), as did United We Can (from 11.7% to 11.9%). Vox chains its fifth drop (from 15.9% to 15%) and would already have fewer votes than those it achieved in 2019, which moves the right-wing bloc away from the absolute majority. The survey paints a picture in which, if elections were held today, it would be more difficult to form parliamentary majorities than before the summer. The Socialists still have a problem: a substantial part of their electorate is demobilized. All the internal data of the survey can be consulted on the EL PAÍS and Cadena SER websites. In the midst of the energy crisis and with runaway inflation due to the war in Ukraine, the PP continues the escalation in voting intentions that began in March, after the replacement of Pablo Casado by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, but the pace has fallen. After an end of spring marked by the victory of the PP in the Andalusian elections, with a comfortable absolute majority for Juan Manuel Moreno, the new course arrives conditioned by the memory of an extreme summer of heat and drought and the prospects of an autumn and a harsh winters, with high inflation, possible shortage of energy supplies and the persistence of war. These will be, in fact, the key issues of the confrontation that the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, and the leader of the opposition will have in the Senate this Tuesday, the first element to galvanize the political course. These issues also seem to have influenced the pace of ascent that, until now, the leader of the PP had managed to maintain. If in the first months the rise was up to one or two points per month, between July and September the PP only grew by 0.5%. With this, the popular ones would obtain 3 more seats, up to 121, insufficient to govern without pacts. The Feijóo effect has caused collateral damage to the parties of the right. Each ascent of the PP sinks its potential partners. The worst news is for Ciudadanos, who will have to fight to keep a deputy, but also for Vox, which is chaining its fifth drop and now would get fewer votes than those obtained in 2019, which distances the right-wing bloc from the absolute majority. Thus, Vox goes down in parallel to Feijóo’s rise: it has fallen to 15% of the vote and would lose five seats compared to the previous elections (the July barometer subtracted one and this September, another four), to place itself in 47.What affects the most is what happens closest. So as not to miss anything, subscribe. Subscribe The PP and Vox, therefore, would add 168 (one less than in July), which would rise to 171 in the event that those of Inés Arrimadas kept an armchair and adding Navarra Suma. In the best of cases, the formations of Feijóo (the survey offers a range of 117 to 123 seats) and Abascal (from 44 to 51) could reach 174 parliamentarians, which is far from “their ideal scenario” for the month of July , with a sum of 181 potential deputies, which did grant them the possibility of surpassing by some margin the 176 seats of the absolute majority. The left-wing bloc remains stable, with the expectation of voting for the PSOE practically intact and with the support United We Can and More Country almost frozen. The Socialists recover very slightly, but they are still far from the 120 deputies they achieved in 2019. Those of Pedro Sánchez are the winners compared to those of Núñez Feijóo in terms of declared intention to vote directly (20.5% compared to 18, 2%), as well as in sympathy (23.1% against 17.1%), but its support curve has been flat since June, without the measures adopted this summer having served to grow more than 0.1%. this part of the political spectrum, United We Can stay with 31 seats, but in the best case scenario, it would repeat the results of the July barometer, while the party of Íñigo Errejón, whose parliamentary representation is unbalanced with respect to the vote, maintains three seats. What the PSOE has achieved is to improve its ability to retain the vote, but it faces underlying problems: it suffers from major leaks to the PP (5.8%), it has serious difficulties in capitalizing on the centrist vote and it does not has managed to reverse the demobilization of his electorate, which was obvious in the Andalusian elections on June 19, according to the survey. The PSOE, on the other hand, maintains its traditional territorial transversality. 13.6% of former socialist voters do not know or do not say what they will do with their ballot in the next general elections, which contrasts with the loyalty and mobilization that now show those who support Núñez Feijóo. The PP retains 76.5% of its voters, a capacity in which it is only surpassed by Vox (85.4%), but, above all, it takes one out of every three old Citizens ballots. The situation of the party of Inés Arrimadas takes on dramatic overtones, with an almost zero loyalty rate among her electorate: the most repeated voting option among those who voted for the Arrimadas party in 2019 is not Ciudadanos itself (27.0%), but the PP (32.0%). 6%. On the contrary, the voters of United We Can (73.4%), Más País (73.1%) and Vox (72.0%) continue to be especially mobilized, which loses the first position it held in July. More demobilized are the old voters of the PSOE (65.8%) and Ciudadanos (57.3%). In addition, the popular ones manage to get hold of 32.6% of the old voters of Ciudadanos and 8% of those of Vox , as well as the aforementioned 5.8% of the socialist electorate. This is due, among other reasons, to the fact that the PP is currently the hegemonic party on the right and is more popular with center and right-wing voters. The far right is easily dominated by Santiago Abascal, but his margin is shrinking to the left. Technical sheet Area: Spain. Universe: general population resident in Spain (except Ceuta and Melilla) over 18 years of age and with the right to vote. Sample size: 2,000 interviews. Procedure: Online interview (CAWI). Sampling error: ±2.2% (95% confidence). Date of realization: from August 23 to 28, 2022