Extreme vigilance before the formation of a tropical cyclone that could reach Spain – La Vanguardia

The meteorological services are extremely vigilant in the face of the formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic that could approach Spain in the second half of next week. The degree of uncertainty about the configuration and trajectory of this depression is very high, although the services believe it is necessary to maintain close surveillance. The probability that it will give rise to very strong gusts of wind in Spain “is currently very low, less than 10%” and would in any case be located in the extreme northwest of the Peninsula, says Rubén del Campo, spokesman for Aemet. The US National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring three areas of low pressure in the Atlantic with the potential to become cyclones. One of them has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next five days, and has been named Danielle, as reported by this organization in a bulletin. This disturbance is located 1,500 kilometers west and southwest of the Azores, in the North Atlantic, and is moving eastward, without posing a threat to the US coast. A second low pressure east of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression. And, on the other hand, a third low pressure area located off the west coast of Africa “could become a tropical or subtropical depression in the next 24 hours.” Aemet informs that “the gestation of the tropical cyclone to the west of the Azores islands is taking place further north than usual”. Most of the depressions that later become hurricanes originate in low latitudes: off Cape Verde or near the Gulf of Mexico. If it were to occur, it would be noticed “only in the extreme northwest of the peninsular,” the state agency specifies. Both the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the European Long-Range Prediction Center predict that this tropical depression (west of the Azores) will move towards east or northeast of the Atlantic, so that the areas most affected by the winds and rainfall will be the Azores Islands, especially from Tuesday or Wednesday (September 6 and 7). It could also cause bad sea conditions in the Atlantic, especially in the areas closest to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula during the second half of next week, if the forecasts come true. Also read Antonio Cerrillo However, the chances of very strong gusts of wind occurring in Spain are currently very low, less than 10%, emphasizes Aemet. “And in the event that they occur, they would only be noticed in the extreme northwest of the peninsula,” says Rubén del Campo, spokesman for Aemet. However, meteorologists still point out that the forecast of the evolution of this tropical cyclone system is subject to many uncertainties. The physicist and meteorologist of the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) Juan Jesús González Alemán, one of the best experts in this type of phenomenon, indicated on Twitter that “the high probability of formation remains” of this anomalous tropical cyclone so far north [en el Atlántico]. In his opinion, the prediction maintains the scenario of “a robust structure” that tends to move towards this moving towards Galicia”. The current hurricane season in the Atlantic, which began on June 1, is approaching the peak of activity (usually starting in September). Only three storms (and no hurricanes) have formed so far: Alex, Bonnie, and Colin, the last dissipating on July 3. The disturbance is located 1,500 km to the west and would approach the Peninsula next weekOn the other hand, Aemet’s seasonal prediction models forecast temperatures above normal throughout Spain for this meteorological autumn (September, October and November), with a 50% to 60% probability that autumn will be warmer than normal in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. The chance of it being colder than normal is only 10% or 20%. As for rainfall, Aemet predicts that the most likely scenario is an autumn with less rainfall than usual in the west and center of the peninsula (a 50% chance, compared to only a 20% chance that there will be more rain than expected). is own at the station). The heat will continue to prevail over the next few days in the Mediterranean regions, although with a cooler atmosphere in the west and center of the Peninsula.