The Ibex 35 starts September immersed in what is already the worst streak in its history. The reference index of the Spanish stock market has chained 12 sessions of declines, drowned in a cocktail that combines three ingredients: inflation, aggressive rate hikes and fear of a recession. In between, he has missed the key level of 8,000. The loss in the Ibex 35 of 8,000 at the weekly close opens falls of 8%. For the year as a whole, and after closing yesterday at 7,806 points, the indicator is already down 10.4%. But the picture improves if we look at shareholder remuneration. The Ibex 35 with dividends – the version of the index that includes remuneration in its calculation – limits the annual fall to 7.7%. And, thanks to the latest declines, the dividend yield of the Ibex 35 for the next 12 months has climbed to 4.7%, according to Bloomberg. This is the highest percentage since the war broke out in Ukraine (that return shot up sharply as the index plummeted to its annual low). As of today, 16 benchmark stocks are offering returns of 5% or more on their 2022 and 2023 payouts. And those are dividends that are not in question. Neither those of the banks, nor those of the electricity companies, nor the payments of Repsol and Telefónica, which constitute the cornerstone of remuneration in Spain, are currently in doubt. Added to the attractiveness of the remuneration of the Spanish indicator are the favorable recommendations that, in general terms, are issued by analysts on the Ibex securities. In fact, half of the index – 18 of its 35 members – currently receive buy advice from the market consensus collected by FactSet, and only four are sell. How far the Ibex can fall separates it from its annual minimum -the 7,644.6 points that it marked on Monday, March 7, days after the war began- a timid 2%. Somewhat further away is its intraday annual minimum – the 7,287.7 to which it fell that same Monday -, to which it has a decrease of 6.6%. In the words of Joan Cabrero, advisor to the premium investment portal of elEconomista.es, “the Ibex 35 continues to show itself incapable of rebounding and continues in the short term the adjustment phase that is serving to correct much of the last upward movement that took it from 7,765 points (gap that served as support) to 8,530 integers”. Everything points, adds the expert, “to the fact that the index could test the support of 7,765 points, whose transfer, together with the 3,500 of the EuroStoxx 50, would threaten to see the Ibex 35 again in the low zone of the year” , that is, in the area of those 7,287 points. Goodbye to 8,000 The loss of 8,000 last Monday, August 29, was already a turning point. The Spanish index had not given up that level for a month. It did so mainly because of the prospect that central banks will not hesitate to weigh down economic growth in order to curb inflation. The market is still digesting the aggressive message that Jerome Powell launched last Friday at the Jackson Hole bankers’ meeting, and the fear that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise rates at a faster rate than expected the week that comes is fueling the declines. The market already discounts a rise of 75 basis points. The highest returns If half of the index already allows you to pocket returns of 5% or more, there are seven values that equal or exceed 7%. Beyond Merlin Properties –whose percentage skyrockets due to the extraordinary one it distributed last month–, Enagás and Mapfre lead the table, with returns of 9.5% and 9.2%, respectively. Enagás will remain at 9.6% next year and the next, according to FactSet. Even above 9%, ACS is placed, which, despite paying in scrip (that is, offering the possibility of receiving payment in group shares), amortizes all the new securities it issues, thus eliminating the dilutive effect of this formula for those who choose cash. 8.8% rents BBVA’s dividend charged to 2022, driven by the decline experienced in the current year by the bank’s titles on the floor: around 15% are left. Consensus puts their payout yield at just over 10% two years from now. Telefónica is also among the most appetizing, with returns above 7%, despite the fact that it is one of the few Ibex 35 securities that trades positively in 2022. The teleco, which recovered payment in scrip during the pandemic, He is fully paid in cash again. And one of the dividend classics of this country, Endesa, also appears among the highlights of the table. The electricity company chaired by José Bogas has yielded on the floor this year: it loses about 16%. And his dividend will also remain above 7%, according to estimates, even though the power company has already reduced its payout (part of the net profit that it uses to pay) from the previous 100% to 70%. comments0WhatsAppFacebookTwitterLinkedin