Six months of war in Ukraine: how has it affected us? – Wave Zero

This Wednesday marks six months since the outbreak of the War in Ukraine. On February 24, the Russian Army began the invasion with attacks in kyiv, Kharkov and Dnipro and the landing in Odessa. Since then, more than 5,500 civilians have died, including a total of 362 children, according to data from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. The Donetsk and Lugansk regions have been the most affected, although the United Nations believes that the real figures could be much higher, since there is a lack of information from other regions such as Mariúpol, Izium or Popasna, where there are also reports of numerous victims. According to UNHCR data, almost seven million refugees have been forced to leave Ukraine, with Russia and Poland itself being the countries where they flee the most. Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy, Turkey and Spain follow. This is a war that has not only had consequences for the countries involved. Since the outbreak of this, Europe has been immersed in a major energy crisis that could be even greater in a few months with the arrival of winter, food supplies and prices have been significantly affected and inflation rates are reaching historical values across the continent. The price of gas, the main concern in Europe Europe continues to prepare for a winter that is expected to be marked by energy instability in the countries most dependent on Russian gas. Natural gas, a raw material used to generate electricity, has been setting record levels throughout the summer. The Dutch market, a reference in Europe, is marking prices higher than those of the beginning of March in recent days, which heralds a more than complicated winter. The Russian giant Gazprom, responsible for the pipeline that pumps gas to Germany, has announced a new “maintenance” shutdown in the coming days, so Europe intends to fill its reserves to a minimum of 80% before the start of winter. Electricity and fuels The price of electricity was reaching historic highs in Spain for months before the outbreak of the War in Ukraine, although this fact only increased it. On March 8, just two weeks after the start of the Russian invasion, the historical maximum was reached with a price of 544.98 euros/MWh. After weeks of negotiations, the governments of Spain and Portugal obtained the so-called “Iberian exception” to put a cap on gas that has stabilized prices for months, although in recent days we have been seeing how the price of electricity has risen again to prices similar to those at the beginning of the war. This Tuesday the MWh reached 365 euros, its most expensive price since the gas cap came into force. Despite this, the values ​​in other European countries continue to be absolutely skyrocketing, generally standing above 600 euros/MWh in countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Italy or Germany. Fuel, for its part, set record prices throughout Europe at the beginning of the invasion, forcing governments to take different measures to stop this escalation. After six months of war, the average price of gasoline in Europe is slightly higher than it was at the beginning of the invasion. Gasoline is paid at 1.77 euros per liter and diesel at 1.80, the latter 11% more expensive. In Spain, prices have stabilized in recent weeks despite the fact that they continue to register historical highs. The Oil Bulletin of the European Union marked a few days ago that gasoline was sold in Spain at an average of 1.59 euros per liter, while diesel was at 1.60. Despite being record highs in August, they are 18% and 15% lower, respectively, than those marked at the beginning of the summer. During the six months of war, prices in Spain have remained below the European average as well as those of countries such as Italy, Portugal, Germany or France. Historical inflation Last July the interannual inflation rate in the euro zone reached 8.9%, which represents the highest increase in prices in the entire historical series. Inflation was higher than 10% in 16 of the 27 countries that make up the EU, reaching the highest levels in Estonia (23.2%), Latvia (21.3%) and Lithuania (20.9%). In the last year, energy prices have increased by 39.6% and fresh food has become more expensive by 11.1%, according to Eurostat data. In Spain, inflation shot up to 10.8% in July, according to INE data, the highest figure since 1984. The increase has been driven mainly by higher energy prices, but also by services linked to tourism such as hotels, international flights or tour packages. The inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages stood at 13.5%, six tenths higher than that of June, reaching the historical maximum of the series that began in 1994. Food imports The consequences of this war are not they were slow to be noticed in countries in the Middle East and North Africa. A quarter of world wheat exports come precisely from Russia and Ukraine, so in countries where they were already dealing with problems of hunger and food shortages before the outbreak of the conflict, it began to be much more noticeable. For months the wheat has been accumulated in the Ukrainian ports without being able to reach the most vulnerable areas of the planet, which suffer serious food crises due to the War. A few weeks ago an agreement was signed between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN for the creation of a maritime corridor that would release the wheat blocked in the ports. Since then, a total of 600,000 tons of agricultural products, mainly grain, have been exported through the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdenny. In Spain, the outbreak of the war caused fear of the possible shortage of raw materials. So much so that just a few weeks after the start of the conflict, some supermarkets rationed sunflower oil, of which Spain imports some 500,000 tons a year, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture. The price of this product rose more than 13% during the first months of the year. The shortage in the markets was reminiscent of the absence of products during the 2020 confinement, at the beginning of the pandemic. Back then, the supply of basic products was always guaranteed, although on this occasion there was concern that supermarket shelves would be emptied due to Spain’s dependence on some Ukrainian raw materials.