Afghanistan, Bertolotti (Ispi): “Forget about rights, but perhaps more modern Islamic Emirate”

To renounce “some of their most violent manifestations” to obtain international recognition “as broad as possible”. This could be done by the Taliban to whom Kabul surrendered. Even if we will have to “basically forget most of the acquired rights” from 2001 to today. This is the analysis of Claudio Bertolotti, Ispi associate researcher and director of Start InSight. Compared to the Taliban leadership that dominated between 1996 and 2001, he says in an interview with Aki – Adnkronos International, “it will change a lot from a political point of view” because, he explains, the Taliban “will interface and will do everything possible to create relations. consolidated diplomats that lead to the widest possible international recognition “. And for this their “main objective” they could “renounce some of their requests”, even if the heirs of the movement founded by Mullah Omar “do not care about sanctions”. We must “basically forget most of the rights acquired up to now”, says Bertolotti, and “we could also imagine an Afghanistan that will no longer be the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan as we have known it in these 20 years, but will be an emirate. Islamic perhaps in a more modern version than the old “. And, from an organizational point of view, it could “get closer and closer to the Iranian model”. ‘Sanctions? They would only work if they all joined. That is, a “political leader”, identified at this time as Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who “would be subordinated to the presence of the emir”, a “spiritual guide”, who “will remain the one designated by the Supreme Supreme Council. of Quetta “, which gives” indications of an ideological and theological nature “. Hibatullah Akhundzada was named in May 2016 after the death of Mullah Akhtar Mansour in a US drone attack in neighboring Pakistan, a ‘model’ that would see Baradar as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Akhundzada as the Guide Iranian Supreme Ali Khamenei? “It is a hypothesis – replies Bertolotti – It could be a likely scenario. A formula that could be a much less bitter pill for the international community”. Will pressure from the international community work on the Taliban who took Kabul after 20 years of operations by international forces? “I’m afraid not – says the expert – The Taliban does not care about sanctions. They were a group at war for 20 years and the sanctions from a historical point of view have never led to obtain the desired result, but have always had repercussions on the population and this would not weaken the Taliban, but would simply worsen the socio-economic situation of the country “. And the sanctions option, he highlights, “would be valid only if everyone joined”, but “I doubt countries such as China, Pakistan and other neighboring countries are willing to do so.” other countries’ The Taliban of ‘today’, he explains, either “already formed the old leadership” that dominated between 1996 and 2001 or “are affiliated with them or related by blood, children of those who were the Taliban mujahideen who founded and guided the movement from the very beginning “. Among the ‘heirs’, he recalls, stand out Sirajuddin Haqqani – number two of the Taliban, son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, head of the “network of the same name linked to al-Qaeda, which has always operated within the Taliban ranks since birth” – and the other “right arm” of Akhundzada, the son of Mullah Omar, the thirty-year-old mullah Yaqoob who is “in fact responsible for the southeastern area of ​​the country as regards the military component”. And therefore, he observes, “from an organizational and people point of view they have essentially remained the same, but have changed their approach”, a fact that emerges “particularly in their public communication”. With the aim of “international recognition” , he remarks, the Taliban “have been extremely good and effective over the years, in weaving direct relationships with the chancelleries and embassies of other countries”, especially neighboring ones, but “not only”. And, he concludes, “their first great success “dates back to the time of the Obama administration, when” they managed to set up a political office in Doha, Qatar “, the one that until now has been used by the Taliban for the negotiations that” led to the state current of things “.