Italy, in suspense over Mario Draghi’s decision, decides today whether to go to early elections

Italy must resolve this Wednesday the violent government crisis opened last Thursday. The Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, appears in the Senate in the morning to give an account of the reasons that pushed him to present his resignation almost a week ago. The pressure on the former president of the European Central Bank not to resign has been enormous in recent weeks and the majority of parliamentarians consulted by this newspaper believe that it will have had an effect. It is not known, however, what Draghi’s conditions will be to continue in office. This Wednesday afternoon, the Senate votes on the motion of confidence that should definitively seal the peace. The same ritual will be repeated on Thursday in the Chamber of Deputies. If early elections are not called, the legislature would end in the spring of next year. The turmoil has intensified somewhat in the last few hours. Draghi, the sources consulted indicate, seems more willing to listen to the parliamentarians’ replies and to reconsider the impulsive decision taken last Thursday. But it won’t be free. On Tuesday he met with the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, who has been working these days for the Prime Minister to reconsider his position. “The end result, in principle, is clear: Draghi will stay. But we don’t know how we will get to him,” says an influential Democratic Party deputy. “Resign? We are in a period of war and no matter how turbulent Italy is, a government crisis is not being provoked right now, ”he insists. The Senate ritual will last throughout the day and the decisive vote will not arrive until 6:30 p.m. We will have to wait until Thursday to repeat the staging in the Chamber of Deputies. The second part, however, will be a formality if the Wednesday ritual is successfully completed. Hardly anyone doubts that a solution can be reached. But there are many questions about how the pieces will fit together. Starting with the 5 Star Movement (M5S), a party that opened this crisis by absenting itself from the last vote of confidence. Risk of a split in the M5S The crickets are on the verge of a new split that would be the final nail for the anti-system formation. In the last few hours a war has broken out between those in favor of continuing in government and those who advocate slamming the door. His leader, Giuseppe Conte, terrified by the situation that he himself has created and that pushes him into the abyss (no situation favors him), has begun to convince himself that he should vote in favor of Draghi’s continuity. “If he leaves the Government, he will die of starvation. And if elections are called, it’s not even clear that he could be the candidate,” says a former Grillino deputy who today is a member of the party of Luigi Di Maio, Foreign Minister and former leader of the M5S. The last leg of the mess is the right. La Liga, by Matteo Salvini, and Forza Italia, by Silvio Berlusconi, are uncomfortable with the situation. A part of their parties, the one that is closer to the industry and the business fabric of the north, asks for responsibility. The most aggressive leadership cadre —from both parties— thinks that elections at the end of September would be a great opportunity. To win. And to place their peers on the lists. The problem is that the right, especially Forza Italia, which belongs to the European People’s Party, cannot now afford to be photographed as the author of the downing of an Executive in times of war. Even less with a recession just around the corner.Join EL PAÍS to follow all the news and read without limits.SubscribeFollow all the international information on Facebook and Twitter, or in our weekly newsletter.