Tour de France: Vingegaard, Pogacar, Thomas, Bardet, Yates, Quintana, Gaudu… The fight will be terrible in the Pyrenees

Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) Ranking: 1st Ahead of 4th: 3’01” Which should send him to the Tour de France podiumAntoine Blondin, chronicle of a Tour giant3 HOURS AGOHis level, quite simply. The Dane forms, with Tadej Pogacar, a duo that evolves a notch above the competition on this Grande Boucle. If that does not translate into time for the Slovenian, Vingegaard has never been beaten by another favorite than the double title holder. Proof of a versatility that we did not necessarily suspect. But it was his climbing skills (and his team) that sent the Hillerslev man so high. His Granon stage is a model of its kind and we would not be far from agreeing with Pogacar when he wondered if he was not the best climber in the world. In the Pyrenees, he should still dig on Thomas, Bardet and the others. And on the clock, the punishment should be the same. It was a great show: The summary of an 11th stage of madness What can deprive him of it A fall, the Covid or a huge failure. To tell the truth, if misfortune should happen to Jonas Vingegaard, we would rather bet on the first two solutions. At the pedals, he is far too above the competition for the podium. Imagining him being overthrown by Pogacar is one thing, imagining him being knocked down by the Slovenian and two other riders is another. (UAE-Emirates) Ranking: 2nd Ahead of 4th: 39” Which should send him to the podium On this Tour, there are Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar and the others. Even if, for the time being, the Slovenian is lagging behind his Danish rival and is only leading the pack of pursuers, he seems quite clearly superior to a Thomas, a Bardet and so on. The boxwood shot of the Granon should not make us forget that he remains an exceptional climber and even if he does not fly like last year, his offensives make everyone crack apart from Vingegaard.Another acceleration, still no gap: Vingegaard clung to Pogacar In addition, he will not only find favorable ground during the three Pyrenean stages, but also during the (relatively) long time trial of Rocamadour, bumpy as desired. It will be very difficult for him to achieve the hat-trick, the fault of his failure at the Col du Granon. But his margin on those who follow him in the standings seems too large for him to slip off the podium in this last week. the Alps. After all, if it happened once, why not a second? The young Slovenian gave a lot from the first week and it could cost him a hint of energy in the final stretch of this Tour. But a warned Pogacar is worth two. “I know what happened at the Granon and it won’t happen again,” he said. Probability of a podium in Paris: 90% Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers) Ranking: 3rd Ahead of 4th: 18 ”What should send him to the podium Geraint Thomas is undeniably the third man in this Tour de France. His climb to Alpe d’Huez where he finished with Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard was the most perfect illustration of this. So far, the 2018 winner is the most consistent of the others, which therefore logically allows him to be ahead of Bardet, his teammate Yates, Quintana or Gaudu. All of them are supposed to be able to take time back from him, but not enough to overtake him. And with Rocamadour’s time, his strategy has a good chance of working. What can deprive him of it Whether the race goes completely crazy and he loses control a bit or the INEOS are wrong in a wobbly team strategy . There are many scenarios where Thomas finds himself trapped and lonely in a wild mountain stage. Also watch out for the third week since it has now been three years since “G” last battled overall at this level at the end of the grand tour. Probability of a podium in Paris: 60% Vingegaard lonely against the “poison” Pogacar ? “INEOS has the key to the Tour”Romain Bardet (Team DSM) Ranking: 4th Delay on the podium: 18” What should send him to the podium His state of mind. We will come back to this in the second section, but Romain Bardet has no choice but to take risks if he wants to finish on the podium. That’s good, he really wants to, repeating to anyone who will listen that his only objective is to win the stage. Will it be compatible with the hunt for third place? Everything will depend on the circumstances of the race, his form and those of his opponents. A hell of a puzzle with many unknowns. The fact remains that the Bardet 2021 vintage is very well born and that if the fight is launched from afar in the Pyrenees, he will find what he likes the most. What can deprive him of it The time trial obviously. The equation is simple for Bardet (but to solve it very complicated), it will take him at least a minute and thirty seconds ahead of Geraint Thomas, if the latter is his ultimate opponent. He must therefore take two minutes from a Briton whom he has only beaten once, for 28 seconds at the Granon. Distanced in Alpe d’Huez, Bardet loses his runner-up status Probability of a podium in Paris: 30%Adam Yates (INEOS Grenadiers) Ranking: 5th Delay on the podium: 1’23 ” What should send him to the podium A team strategy? INEOS have three runners in the Top 9 with Thomas, Yates and Pidcock. If the latter cannot really believe in the podium, Simon’s brother is not so far from it. If Yates goes in a hit, Vingegaard and Pogacar probably won’t be suspicious and Thomas obviously won’t roll over him. As for imagining Bardet’s DSMs putting themselves at the head of the pack, there is a step that we will not take. Rather subject to the events so far, Adam Yates would have the good idea to provoke them in the Pyrenees. What can deprive him of it His overall level on the Tour de France. If the Briton is in the race for the podium, he has never beaten one of his direct opponents to the pedal on a finish at the top. No more at La Planche, than at Granon (only Pogacar was behind him) and at Alpe d’Huez. The former Mitchelton house has an interest in finding sacred legs if he wants to reverse the fight. And certainly Yates is not a penguin in the clock but Thomas is superior to him. Probability of a podium in Paris: 15%Nairo Quintana (Arkéa-Samsic) Ranking: 6thDelay on the podium: 1’32” send on the podiumAt 32, the Colombian is no longer the same rider as in his time at Movistar. The podium may be a personal goal but not that of his team. However, Quintana is never as strong as in the absence of pressure. No one was betting on him for the podium at the start of the race and that’s still the case. Whatever he does, he should return to the Top 10 on the Tour (barring a huge failure) and has nothing to lose. The three mountain stages leave him with three opportunities to move up the standings, a program tough enough and provides to give him a chance to recover his 92 seconds over Thomas, 3rd overallNairo Quintana and Enric Mas in the 2022 Tour de FranceCredit: Getty ImagesWhat can deprive himThe strength of his opponents and the profile of the last week. With the exception of Granon day, the Colombian has always seemed weaker than the others. Not reassuring before approaching the Pyrenees which have historically smiled less on Quintana than the Alps when he was playing for the Tour podium. , and he will have to take risks, as at the Granon, to hope to overthrow the general. But he will not be able to count on his team, with the abandonment of Barguil and will absolutely have to get on the podium before the 40 km time trial the day before the finish to hope to be there in Paris, given his (weak ) qualities in the exercise. Probability of podium in Paris: 10% Louis Meintjes (Intermarché – Wanty – Gobert Matériaux) Ranking: 7th Delay on the podium: 1’41” Which should send him to the podium A miracle à la Pereiro . If the South African is in the Top 10 overall, it is only thanks to his breakaways. Pointed more than 18 minutes from Vingegaard on the evening of Granon, he recovered 14 thanks to his escapes to Alpe d’Huez and Mende. Given his form since the start, he will need a third to hope to grab the podium, even if he finds his legs from Dauphiné (6th). Which can deprive him of it His inability to fight on the pedal. On paper, it now seems impossible to let it slip away. To hang on the podium, he will have to move up places on a regular basis, which he has not done for five years (8th in the 2017 Tour), if indeed he has already done so. Almost unable to change pace to attack, he never appeared able to outrun his direct opponents. And unfortunately for him, his timed abilities are probably the “worst” candidates for the podium, which is saying something, even if he had surprised in Copenhagen (24th). Probability of a podium in Paris: 1% David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) Ranking: 8th Delay on the podium: 1’41” Which should send him to the podium That famous click he mentioned after the Mende stage! David Gaudu had let loose in an astonishing exercise in sincerity after Alpe d’Huez, regretting his lack of self-confidence. A lock that would have “jumped” in the climb to the Mende aerodrome and which allowed him to hurt Quintana, Yates, Bardet and even Thomas even if some came back in the final flat. Gaudu hopes “to be all fired up flames” in the Pyrenees and he is aiming for the podium, as announced by Marc Madiot in January. This one still seems a bit far off, but Gaudu was not really expected at this level after two weeks.”I hope the lock has been released”: David Gaudu optimistic for the futureWhat can deprive him of itThis lack of maturity that his statements suggest. Sometimes angry with himself, sometimes very satisfied, Gaudu seems to be asking a lot of questions. Nothing says that he will have all the answers in the Pyrenees. If this Tour de France 2022 can serve him enormously for the future, it can also be a huge frustration. And there will also be this time of 40 kilometers to finish. Gaudu has plenty of time to recover, at least three minutes and thirty seconds, if he wants to believe it. 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