Tension is rising between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, accused of supporting the rebel armed group M23 in North Kivu, despite denials from Kigali. But without independent information, “the situation is in constant blur in the Democratic Republic of Congo-Uganda-Rwanda triangle”, estimates Professor Filip Reyntjens, who deciphers for France 24 the historical and economic reasons for this instability in the region of the Grands Lakes. Between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, attempts at dialogue have remained in vain since the M23, an armed group from a former Congolese Tutsi rebellion and accusing the government of marginalizing their ethnic minority, took up arms again at the end of 2021, making Fidelity to the peace agreements signed in 2013. In mid-June, the M23 rebels seized the town of Bunagana, in North Kivu, an important commercial crossroads between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda. Rwanda was instantly singled out, accused by Kinshasa of supporting the M23 and “invading” its territory. the umpteenth aggression on the part of Rwanda” and affirmed its determination to oppose a “double diplomatic and military front” to the violence in the East. However, relations between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire) are conflictual since the post-genocide period of 1994 and, despite periods of calm, the destabilization of the Great Lakes region has remained total for nearly thirty years. After the end of the second Congo war, in 2003, despite the withdrawal of its troops, Rwanda continued its clandestine presence by supporting armed groups (including the M23) in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. And this until the defeat of the M23 in 2013 against Monusco, the UN peacekeeping mission – also yielding to strong international pressure. A presence that has always been accompanied, in particular, by the illegal exploitation of Congolese natural resources. Since the coming to power of Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi in 2019, relations with Rwanda seemed to be improving. This is evidenced by the signing, in 2021, of bilateral agreements on investments, taxation and even the exploitation of gold. there”, considers Filip Reyntjens, professor of law and politics at the University of Antwerp, specialist in the Great Lakes region, who returns for France 24 to the reasons for the renewed tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali.France 24: Why this renewed tension between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda? Filip Reyntjens: Post-genocide Rwanda invaded Zaire (which has since become the Democratic Republic of Congo) and Congo (Brazzaville) twice, in 1996 and 1998. This second war officially ended in 2003 but since then the Rwandan army has been present on Congolese territory through interposed rebel movements (the CNDP, then the M23 since 2012). therefore understandable, knowing that ‘It’s not only about military operations, but also about economic exploitation and political influence. the authorization of the Kinshasa government (even at its request) – of the Ugandan army in Ituri and North Kivu. The deployment of the Ugandan People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) has angered Rwanda, which considers North Kivu to be part of its natural zone of influence. no doubt, but does he also support it militarily? This is not established, there is no evidence confirmed by independent sources yet. It would also be surprising, at a time when relations between the two countries were beginning to improve: the Democratic Republic of Congo has just joined the East African Community, just before the organization of the Commonwealth summit in Kigali. For its part, Uganda, where some M23 leaders took refuge after their defeat in 2013 [face à la Monusco, NDLR], was not singled out because the Democratic Republic of Congo is also conducting joint military operations with the Ugandan army. Is the M23 really the cornerstone of this conflict? Isn’t it imperative for Kigali to maintain its presence in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo for the exploitation of natural resources? This is even the main issue for Rwanda. Moreover, the report of the UN group of experts mentions the involvement of Rwanda (but also of Uganda) in the exploitation of Congolese resources. constant and considerable Congolese resources [principalement l’or, le coltan, mais aussi les diamants du Kasaï, NDLR] to Rwanda, then from Rwanda to international markets, especially Dubai. In any case, the situation is in constant limbo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo-Uganda-Rwanda triangle, which will only be lifted when where we will have verified, independent and external information. Who can provide this information and act in the direction of a resolution of the conflict? The group of UN experts, initially. Furthermore, within the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), the Expanded Joint Verification Mechanism is responsible for monitoring the security and humanitarian situation in the 12 countries of the region. However, I have not seen, since November 2021, a position or report emanating from this body of the ICGLR. All that remains is therefore the UN group of experts, and the NGOs, in particular in with regard to the exploitation of Congolese natural resources by Rwanda, a subject which is regularly the subject of reports. The East African Community, for its part, cannot do much. Of the seven states that make it up (Burundi, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of the Congo), three are involved in this conflict, Burundi is involved in South Kivu, where rebels are also evolving Burundians, and South Sudan already has a lot to do on its soil. The only thing the East African Community can do, therefore, is to deploy a Kenyan-Tanzanian force, with the only two states having the advantage of being independent and having the military capability to intervene.Tanzania did so within the UN Intervention Brigade, in support of MONUSCO in 2013 to fight the M23, alongside South Africa and Malawi. armed conflict is possible? I don’t think so, because the Democratic Republic of the Congo does not have an army [opérationnelle, NDLR] and already fails to control its own territory. It cannot wage an offensive war against Rwanda, which has a good army, a real army like the Rwandan state is a real state. The Congolese army, on the other hand, is the mirror image of the Congolese state – a failing state that does not fulfill, empirically, most of the functions that a state should fulfill, such as territorial control. Some politicians (like Martin Fayulu) and civil society in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have a desire to attack Rwanda, but they won’t do it because they are unable to do so. While Rwanda can, and has already done so in the past by invading the Congo and occupying half of its territory. The fact remains that the destabilization of the entire region remains total, as is the case since the genocide in Rwanda, in 1994. Before, Rwanda was not a factor of instability in the region, it had never attacked or destabilized a neighboring country, had never been engaged in the exploitation illegal resources… It is only since the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) is there that it has become a practice, the RPF having revived an old pre-colonial Rwandan tradition of territorial expansion and military force.
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