NewsWorldThe situation in the coalition is serious: SCENARIOS of...

The situation in the coalition is serious: SCENARIOS of development! Heger talks about Matovič replacement, SaS is one foot away –


It is not for nothing that it is said that once trust is broken, it will never be the same again. The leaders of the coalition parties SaS and OĽaNO have been in a permanent dispute practically since the formation of the coalition. So far, the biggest conflict has resulted in the resignation of Igor Matovič as prime minister. Although ministers say the debate is only in front of the cameras, the events of recent days do not suggest this. Archive VIDEO The SaS will decide on the next steps in the coalition at the Republican Council: We are witnessing a breach of the coalition agreement Let’s fight together and forgive ourselves In addition to being willing to forgive the Sulík family for all attacks, he asked them to do the same. 365 to one. According to the head of the finance department, it was also a score. “Let’s fight together for people and not against each other,” Matovic said. Archive VIDEO Great reconciliation? SaS attacked us 365 times in four days: Let’s forgive each other, Matovič calls. The link sounded clear, let’s forgive each other. The Liberals, led by Richard Sulík, did not see it in the pink. SaS has previously announced that it will once again cease participating in coalition councils. What’s more, Sulík also left the virtual coalition group. “If Igor Matovič cared about settling relations, he would appreciate our Monday’s decision to return to the coalition council and stop attacking. On the contrary, after all our warnings, he broke the veto of the president with the fascists against the will of two coalition partners and repeatedly attacked us, “Sulík responded to Matovič’s call. The SaS does not see it as rosy, liberals and OĽaNO have convened extraordinary presidencies. After Tuesday’s government meeting, Richard Sulík announced that the SaS would convene an extraordinary enlarged Republican Council on July 6, where they would be present, where MPs and ministers for the SaS would be present. They have to make another decision, or the conditions under which they are willing to continue to function. Liberals are practically one foot away from the coalition. Archive VIDEO OĽaNO has serious reservations about SaS’s behavior: However, they decided to lend a hand to this party for cooperation “We are witnessing a gross violation of the legislative process. Also repeated violations of the coalition agreement. We were also the targets of attacks, lies, it just doesn’t make sense to pretend that there are no problems in the coalition, “said Sulík. OĽaNO didn’t linger long either. Matovic also announced after the government meeting that his movement was also convening an extraordinary presidency. “It can’t continue to work like this when a coalition partner sabotages your decisions by not going to the coalition councils,” he said, adding that he had apologized and was now waiting for the same gesture from SaS. Both leaders only agreed that the situation was serious. Scenarios for the development of the government crisis After previous shootings, this has been the most serious crisis since the change of prime minister, which was demanded by the SaS. Therefore, even in this dispute, several possible scenarios arise, which could theoretically occur. We evaluated them together with political scientists. 1. SaS will leave the government as soon as I can tell in the minority The fact that the Liberals are one foot away from the coalition has been said for several weeks. From the beginning, they did not agree with the anti-inflation package, which they did not veto in the end, but voted. Voting has become a problem for liberals. Matovic’s package passed with the voices of the Kotleb family, the Kuff family or Tomáš Taraba, in which SaS saw an association with the fascists. The accusations and the first thoughts about leaving followed.
The SaS carts also admitted to leave the coalition at the time, although they claimed that they still had the will to continue in government, even though the situation was difficult. Over the weekend, Anna Zemanová, head of the SaS parliamentary group, confirmed that the Liberals were not considering leaving the coalition. On June 22, Sulík said that the liberals would probably take time to think over the summer. “If we make a decision, we will announce it sooner than after the summer,” he said, adding that they would consider whether and how they would remain in the coalition. Photo gallery (5) Source: Topky / Vlado Anjel According to him, their departure would please Matovič. “Perhaps the fascists will be a more suitable partner,” he suggested, what could happen after their departure. The decision will probably be made sooner, as the decision on the next step should be taken at the Republican Council next Wednesday. Therefore, one of the possible alternatives is the departure of the Liberals from the coalition and control in the minority. However, it would be really difficult, as the coalition currently has, even with the For People party, whose parliamentary group disbanded, with SaS votes of 88 votes, which is a comfortable parliamentary majority. With the votes of some non-attached Members, they even needed the necessary constitutional majority, for which they lack two votes. However, after the departure of the SaS, the coalition of the three parties would have only 69 votes without votes. So he would have to rely on their voices. As we already know, the votes of non-attached Members, even those who are accustomed to supporting the coalition, cannot be relied on. “It will depend on the negotiations. If neither side of the dispute withdraws and no compromise is reached, then this scenario is likely, “political scientist Michal Cirner told Topky. “This is an unlikely scenario. SaS is not just Sulík and a few people around him. Many SaS nominees would have to leave their posts at once, who may be beneficial to the party, for example in the pre-election period. He probably won’t want to leave his warm places. The conflict with Matovič is not pulling SaS preferences down any quickly, “said political scientist Radoslav Štefančík for Topky, adding that the Sulíkovs would be more harmed if they left the government. According to political scientist Juraj Marušiak, such a possibility is theoretically here, as Slovakia already has experience with minority governments. “It simply came to our notice then. However, if it ended up as a minority government with the support of SaS, it would be an absurd theater, “he said. 2. SaS will leave the government, the government will fall, there will be early elections There could be a scenario in which the will of the coalition will not continue after the departure of the SaS. The government would fall apart and the opposition would face the coveted early elections. However, this scenario is currently the least likely of all, as there is no will in the coalition to end the government prematurely, despite the controversy. Over the weekend, however, the head of Sme rodina Boris Kollár sowed a grain of doubt. He entered the game with a statement in Sunday’s discussion session, in which he stated that he wanted to submit a draft constitutional law by the end of August, which would allow the election period to be shortened. According to him, we are a family would support such a law even if it was introduced by the opposition. “If there is such a proposal, I will support it, even if I have to lay down a coalition agreement,” he said. Photo gallery (5) Source: Topky / Vlado Anjel The coalition reacted almost unanimously that such a proposal was already here and they do not assume that it would pass. It is not clear what Kollár is watching. But even in the case of the We Are the Family movement, there has long been whispering in the corridors about post-election cooperation with Petr Pellegrini’s Hlas-SD party. As in the case of SaS, it rejects any agreement on cooperation with clones of the Direction. “It will also depend on We are a family or whether it will want to be part of a minority government. It is more complicated with early elections, but we are the family working to make it not so complicated, “said Cirner. According to Štefančík, this scenario is the least probable if we are talking about two politicians who have already learned from the fall of their own government. And we cannot say for sure. “However, it cannot be ruled out that the symptoms of the liquidation of their own governments may still persist, and they will make an irrational decision again. But early elections will also have to be approved by parliament, and there I see a path that has been cut. If SaS left the government, Matovič would do everything to prolong the existence of the government, although it would be very unusual. At least the hidden help of the far right would be expected there, “he said. According to Marušiak, the implementation of such an intention could be a technical problem. “The question is whether the coalition parties are ready for this, because there is a high probability that they would not be in the new government after the elections,” he said. So whether SaS and OĽaNO will hang another failed government around their necks is certainly one of the reasons why they should look for solutions. 3. Matovič will leave the post of Minister of Finance, the government will continue After the weekend statement of Prime Minister Eduard Heger, however, another unexpected possibility came into play. “All scenarios are in play,” the prime minister responded briefly to SMEs after the government’s meeting when asked if he admits Matovic’s departure. As we have already mentioned, one conflict ended in a partial reconstruction. SaS’s request was a change to the post of prime minister, in which Matovič was replaced by Heger. And it is Matovič’s departure from the post of Minister of Finance that could still be a request that SaS would submit to the Prime Minister. Photo gallery (5) Source: Topky / Vlado Anjel The words are nice, but so far it does not seem that Heger would recall Matovič against his will. It does not seem very likely that the head of the OĽaNO movement would leave alone. “It is possible that SaS will impose some conditions, but it will probably not be Matovič’s departure,” thinks Štefančík, according to whom it could be the opening of a coalition agreement, the redefining of relations in the coalition or power exchanges. “It would help the SaS to enter the elections as a coalition party, because in the opposition, in addition to radical populists from Smer and the Republic or the LSN, its voice will not be heard enough,” he said. “SaS will definitely have to give way as well. Maybe OĽaNO will demand that if Matovič ends up in the government, then let Sulík end up in it too, that would be a compromise, “commented Cirner. Matovič’s resignation from the government means his work in parliament. “He is already in opposition to his own government, I wonder what he would do as a member of parliament. It is therefore questionable to continue such a government, depending on the whims of MP Matovič and his loyal deputies. Two centers would be established in OĽANO in this way. However, I perceive as a shift that Heger began to admit such a possibility, “Marušiak stated. That something will change and whether SaS or OĽaNO will come with some conditions for change is the most likely scenario at the moment. Especially since this dispute cannot be sustained due to the huge tension. 4. Nothing will change, SaS will have no requirements, the government will continue The last option, which is most likely without any official output of the parties to the dispute, most likely, is that everything will remain the same. Nothing will change, there will be silence for a while, things will not be resolved, the coalition will continue, tensions will rise and we will once again see a status or press shootout. “Something is sure to change,” Cirner thinks. Photo gallery (5) Source: Topky / Vlado Anjel “It looks like SaS already has its teeth full. They cannot be surprised, the voter already has his teeth full of this governing coalition. However, there are still many factors to ensure that this coalition not only survives but makes the country better. However, the election promises cannot be fulfilled from the opposition seats, “Štefančík stated. According to Marušiak, however, this is a highly probable variant. The dispute that must culminate Whether the SaS really has enough and will risk preferences and reputation, or try to find a solution, we will find out after both the extraordinary presidency of OĽaNO and the extraordinary Republican Council of the SaS. It should be remembered, however, that while SaS is in the position of the one who is “constantly leaving,” OĽaNO is in the position of the one who “digs up and then plays the sweet.” The dispute in the coalition escalated again after members of parliament last Wednesday broke the veto of President Zuzana Čaputová during the so-called anti-inflation package from the workshop of the Minister of Finance Igor Matovič. SaS and Matovic were subsequently accused of collaborating with the opposition and fascists. The SaS again refused to go to coalition councils due to Matovic’s attacks, while OĽaNO accused the liberals of breaking the government. SaS took the time to think about what to do next. One dispute has already culminated in a partial reconstruction of the government and the replacement of the prime minister. Whether Matovič will lose his post again this time is still questionable.


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