ANALYSIS | Things are looking bad in Afghanistan, even with the presence of US air power. In 21 days, they could look a lot worse

(CNN) – Many thought this would happen. But seeing it happen so quickly, so starkly, does not comfort those who made the prediction. The past six days have put Afghanistan on the possibly most dangerous place of the last two decades.

At least six provincial capitals in Afghanistan have fallen to the Taliban, including the important Kunduz, while another, Ghazni, is in danger. The United States and its allies in Afghanistan have never seen territory fall into the hands of the Taliban so quickly.

But there has been another loss: The hope that the Taliban could wreak havoc in rural Afghanistan, where they have the most support, but stay out of the cities, has for the most part evaporated.

Irreversible changes in Afghanistan?

Are these changes irreversible? Normally, the answer would be a quick “no”, with the intervention of the US aviation and the expulsion of the insurgency through specific attacks from above and Afghan commandos on the ground. But it is more difficult to use air power when fighting through cities full of civilians. And the Afghan security forces – or at least their most trusted commandos – are a limited asset. It must be difficult for Afghan generals to know which fires to put out.

There is another urgent complication: The United States has made it clear that within 21 days, when withdrawal of all international troops has been completed, the airstrikes that usually slow down the insurgency will cease, and air power will be used in a limited way to strike terrorism-related targets. If there is no last minute change, this meager advantage will fade, although these attacks have not particularly changed the tide of the past five days.

Even critics of America’s lackluster and fickle enforcement during its longest war should find no comfort in the way the seemingly inevitable has come about. After 20 years, leaving was about the only thing the United States hadn’t tried; but it was foolish to think that something nice was hiding below, ripping off this bandage. There was strategic value in President Joe Biden’s acceptance that the United States should not apply enough force indefinitely to contain the Taliban. But that’s the only real consolation many hoped for from his swift and unconditional departure.

Hopes in the peace process

American diplomats continue to express their hope that the peace process will bear fruit. That the representatives of the Taliban you are speaking to in Doha – an older group of elders and perhaps softer from the outside point of view – intend to disrupt the furious march to victory of their younger fighters. Critics have dismissed this hope and called the negotiations a sham, while some point out that it remains prudent to keep the door to the talks open for any occasion later on.

Regardless of who is right, it is surprising to see the United States, after so long wielding extraordinary power on a daily basis in Afghanistan, reduced to begging for a peaceful settlement. The hope that the 2021 Taliban have learned – from their tenure as outcasts in the 1990s – that they need international help to keep the country afloat continues to underpin much of American diplomacy. This may only seem more wrong after Sunday’s rejection of any possible ceasefire by the Taliban.

They seem to want victory, and little else.

And now that?

This is already shaping up to be a terrifying summer for millions of Afghans. The less optimistic voices in Afghanistan that I heard during a trip in April admitted that they could, if the summer months go bad, lose parts of the country. They admitted that they could see the Taliban return to Afghanistan and then use this partial “emirate” – as the militants like to call the areas they control – to start negotiating with greater legitimacy. But the cities that are pushing, or have taken, are beginning to circle Kabul.

The capital – possibly home to as many as 6 million people, with all the money, weapons and security that 20 years worth of billions of US dollars can buy – does not appear vulnerable to a Taliban takeover, so far. It would be a great challenge for the insurgents to enter the city, trapped as it is on a hilltop, with the same ease with which the Northern Alliance drove them out in 2001. But the Taliban have shown how penetrable Kabul is to them. in the last week, assassinating government spokesmen, a local official and even prosecutors.

Similar attacks by the insurgents have already occurred in the past. It is also possible that the Afghan security forces will succeed in the key city of Lashkar Gah in Helmand province and find a line that they can maintain.

Confusion in the West and chaos in Afghanistan

But it is the wide gaze of consternation and confusion from Western officials about how to respond that should give the insurgency the greatest impetus. After more than a dozen years of repeating the same arguments that relied on what they believed to be an impeccable strategy, the West does not really know what to say. Demand peace, threaten more airstrikes, or insist that major cities hold out?

The kind of society that Western money bought for the Afghan allies was often corrupt, unjust, and sometimes undemocratic. However, what is coming now is markedly worse still. Caudillismo runs the risk of filling the gap between the collapse of the government and insurgent domination. The Taliban are showing their ugly old face.

Unicef drew attention, last week, about the flogging of a 12-year-old boy in Faryab by “a member of an anti-government element.” There have been several reports of insurgents killing officials loyal to the government. English-speaking Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen frequently denounces this brutality. But that does not prevent it from occurring.

At least 27 children died and 136 were injured in the last 72 hours in Afghanistan, according to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in a statement on Monday. “These atrocities highlight the brutal nature and scale of the violence in Afghanistan, which is targeting already vulnerable children,” he added.

The return of al Qaeda

Another threat, as security in the country collapses, is the return of the reason the United States went there in the first place: terrorism. Afghan officials have told me that al Qaeda he is doing well, and there are said to be thousands of foreign fighters with lax affiliations to different groups on the battlefield.

Rita Katz, head of the extremist watchdog group SITE, described al Qaeda’s channels on social media as a “24-hour-a-day hype and saucer party.” “In a way, it feels like the early days of the Syrian Civil War amid the victories of the Nusra Front, except now on a completely different scale, given the terrifying momentum of the Taliban,” tweeted Katz.

History has been repeated so many times for Afghans that they are now beyond sham. The permanent question for the next few months is whether the West – faced with the discomfort of the seemingly inevitable happening – decides to change course, if it is not too late.