While all health measures have been lifted for several weeks, we have witnessed a rebound in the epidemic in recent days. What should we expect for the next few months? Are we heading for a seventh wave of contamination, with a return of government restrictions? For several days, the number of positive Covid cases has been on the rise again and is starting to cause concern. Especially since staff shortages are already threatening the hospital for this summer. Is the increase in cases worrying? More than 50,000 cases per day on average during the last week 76,666 cases detected on Wednesday June 22. That same day, ARS Occitanie reported a +36% increase in the number of cases in one week in the region.
[#Covid19] Signs of epidemic resumption: + 36% in one week. In order to counter this epidemic recovery, we have no choice: barrier gestures and vaccination reminder for those over 60 are essential!
\ud83d\udccc Check out the bulletin @ARS_OC pic.twitter.com/3SeZGayHVC— ARS Occitanie (@ARS_OC) June 21, 2022 This situation, described as “measured epidemic recovery” by the Ministry of Health, is to be attributed to the arrival of a new sub-variant of Omicron, the BA.5, which tends to become the majority. And this trend may well last. “The increase in incidence is very, very clear”, emphasizes to Ouest-France Yves Buisson, president of the Covid-19 cell of the Academy of Medicine. “The reproduction rate is between 1.4 and 1.5. There is an obvious epidemic resurgence, with an increase in hospitalizations. We will undoubtedly also observe an increase in the number of patients in intensive care and intensive care. Vaccination which is no longer advancing However, the second booster dose that the over 60s have been invited to do for several months is not advancing. The vaccination rate for people over 75 is around 20%. It drops to 9.55% for the population aged between 65 and 75, according to data collected by Covid Tracker, figures which seem to alarm the government. “It’s not going fast enough, there are not enough people coming to be vaccinated”, worried the Ministry of Health during a press briefing on Tuesday June 21, 2022, relayed by Ouest-France . “There is weariness, we can see very well that this fourth dose does not take”, abounded, in fact, at the beginning of May the epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet on the set of the program C à Vous. For its part, the High Authority for Health proposed at the end of May three scenarios for this fall. The most optimistic, which envisaged a net slowdown in the circulation of the virus, loses credit, the other two foresee a need to vaccinate all or part of the population again. Everything will depend on the immunity retained by the latter, and the level of exposure to serious forms. The second scenario, towards which we seem to be heading currently, provides for “the periodic administration of a vaccine booster dose for those most at risk of severe form”. The most pessimistic hypothesis, which envisages a loss of effectiveness of current vaccines, would require “significant modification of existing vaccines and the administration of booster doses of vaccination to the entire population in order to limit viral circulation and avoid congestion in the healthcare system. Towards a return of the mask? Already, several scientists have called for a return of the mask in closed places, and in particular transport. This is the case of Alain Fischer, who indicated to Télématin that this measure would be “certainly for fragile people, and probably for the whole population, because it is a measure of collective protection and by doing the small effort to wear the mask we contribute to protect the fragile people “. What will be the government strategy? On the government side, we prefer to remain measured for the moment. Olivier Véran, the former Minister of Health now in charge of Relations with Parliament, illustrated this position on BFMTV. “We are vaccinated, we have strong collective protection, we know the variant that is in circulation, we know the means of protecting ourselves from an epidemic outbreak – the mask, the barrier gestures – so I do not have a excessive worry.” A position criticized by part of the opposition, like the environmental senator from Paris (related PS), Bernard Jomier who pointed to Public-Sénat the government’s inaction since January. “I think the reasons are political, he said. We wanted to keep the Covid out of the electoral period and the debates between candidates, especially during the presidential election, but in reality the virus does not disappear. We are paying for it. the consequences today. Towards the end of the vaccination pass? While the state of health emergency, which allows the government to take new measures to limit travel or access to certain establishments via the vaccine or health pass, is due to end on July 31, we still do not know what the situation will look like. future law. According to TF1, “the executive seeks not to be taken aback and to keep a range of measures that can be reintroduced eventually, such as wearing a mask or restricting movement” but “the vaccine pass should not appear” in this new text. Our colleagues rely on the statements of Olivia Grégoire, the government spokesperson: “What matters to us is that we are able to intervene if necessary with braking measures, if the health situation was set to change post July 31.” The question must be studied on June 28 in the Council of Ministers. We should know a little more then.