A new composition at the Palais-Bourbon. For the first time since the reform of the five-year term and the inversion of the electoral calendar in 2000, the elected president obtained only a relative majority in the National Assembly, Sunday, June 19, after the legislative elections. The coalition around Emmanuel Macron, Together!, only won 245 seats, far from the absolute majority threshold set at 289 seats. >> Legislative 2022: follow the post-second round negotiations live The left-wing alliance around the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) has 133 deputies, according to calculations by franceinfo*, so that the National Rally (RN) signs a historic breakthrough with 89 elected. The legislative voting system – first past the post in two rounds – however traditionally favors the emergence of a clear presidential majority. Several parties, mainly in the opposition, have therefore been calling for a passage, at least partial, to proportional representation for years. Would this voting system have radically changed the composition of the newly elected Assembly? No, according to Stanislas Guerini. “The French have almost made the choice of proportional representation in anticipation”, commented on RTL, Monday June 20, the Minister of Transformation and the Public Service, narrowly re-elected deputy in Paris. Does the member of the government say true or false? “The French have almost made the choice of proportional representation in anticipation”, @StanGuerini in #RTLMatin with @VenturaAlba pic.twitter.com/CCBF85Biua – RTL France (@RTLFrance) June 20, 2022 To verify the minister’s remarks, franceinfo has simulated, based on the results of the last legislative elections, the election of an Assembly with more or less significant doses of proportional representation. These projections provide an overview of the effects of a change in the voting system on the composition of the hemicycle, but they remain theoretical. If the election had taken place with different rules, voters and political parties would probably have adapted their behavior and strategies. With integral proportional: Nupes et Ensemble! tied and reinforced RN Full proportional is simple in principle: seats are allocated according to the number of votes cast obtained. During the presidential campaign, Emmanuel Macron had also said he was ready to explore this avenue to “better represent the political forces in the Assembly”. To simulate this scenario, franceinfo distributed proportionally the 577 seats to be filled, according to the results in votes at the national level of each block in the first round of the legislative elections. The seats are distributed according to the “highest average” method, detailed by the Ministry of the Interior. The composition of the National Assembly would change radically. La Nupes and Ensemble!, which respectively collected 25.78% and 25.75% of the votes in the first round, would each collect 150 deputies. The RN would see its ranks increase from 89 to 109 elected officials. With 66 members, the Republicans and the UDI would lose two seats compared to the current configuration. Finally, Reconquest!, the party of Eric Zemmour, would enter the National Assembly with 24 seats. With a threshold of representativeness: small parties penalized Traditionally, proportional elections include a threshold of representativeness. This makes it possible to avoid the multiplication of small formations and the bursting of the hemicycle. In the European elections, for example, only the lists having won at least 5% of the votes cast can enter Parliament. Franceinfo applied this voting method to the last legislative elections. Here again, the hemicycle would have a completely different face. Only four shades would be represented in the new Assembly: the Nupes (183 deputies), Together! (182), the LR-UDI alliance (80) and the RN (132 deputies). The small parties would be penalized: the various left, various center, various right, sovereignists or regionalists would have no seats. With a proportional and a majority bonus: an absolute majority for Nupes During the inter-rounds of the presidential election, Marine Le Pen had pleaded for the application of another system: a partial proportional, as reported by Le Parisien . In this type of ballot, two thirds of the deputies are elected proportionally. The last third sees applying a majority bonus for the party that comes first in the election. The leader of the RN argued that this method would allow “representation of the sensitivities expressed in the country”, while avoiding the risk of parliamentary instability. By applying this scenario to the legislative elections, the Nupes would win an absolute majority with 314 deputies. By placing itself at the head of the votes, the alliance of the left would benefit from the 192 seats granted under the majority bonus, and 122 others allocated to the proportional system. The presidential coalition would be reduced to 122 elected officials, against 88 for the RN and 53 for LR-UDI. No other party would integrate the hemicycle. With a proportional dose of 15%: few changes During his first mandate, Emmanuel Macron had proposed to introduce a proportional dose. During the presentation of the reform of the institutions, finally buried, “the introduction of a dose of proportional representation in the legislative elections for 15% of the seats of deputies to be filled” had been mentioned by Matignon. To simulate such a voting method, franceinfo distributed 15% of all seats, or 86 deputies, proportionally, from the national scores of the first round. For the remaining 491 seats, a pro rata of the current distribution of seats has been applied. This representation, although schematic, makes it possible to observe that a low dose of proportional would change the composition of the hemicycle little. The presidential coalition would still obtain a relative majority of 235 seats, against 245 today. The Nupes and the RN would only win seven more seats each. In 2018, the left-wing think tank Terra Nova estimated that below 25% the effect of a proportional dose would be purely “tokenistic”. With a proportional in the most populated departments: a very weak impact Finally, it is possible to introduce a dose of proportional locally. In 2021, the former MoDem deputy Patrick Mignola had tabled a bill aimed at voting proportionally in the most populated departments, with more than twelve constituencies, and keeping the current voting system in the others. In this hypothesis, nine departments would be concerned by this reform: the North (which has 21 deputies), Paris (18), the Bouches-du-Rhône (16), the Rhône (14), the Hauts-de-Seine (13 ), Gironde (12), Pas-de-Calais (12), Yvelines (12) and Seine-Saint-Denis (12). In total, 130 of the 577 deputies would be elected proportionally. Once again, the composition of the Assembly would only be slightly modified. Together ! would retain a relative majority, lower by 14 deputies, ahead of the Nupes and the RN. On the other hand, Reconquest! would enter the Palais-Bourbon with four representatives. * Franceinfo carried out various checks and decided to integrate into the ranks of the Nupes two candidates labeled various left by the Ministry of the Interior. Contrary to the figures of the ministry, the projections in seats of the Nupes therefore count, in this hemicycle, the deputies Joël Aviragnet and Hervé Saulignac. All our explanations can be found in this article.
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