The Covid-19 epidemic, an “armed peace which always requires constant vigilance”

For several months, tourism has been picking up again, and Western countries such as the United States and European countries are easing the restrictions on entry to their territory put in place during the Covid-19 pandemic. What consequences can this intense resumption of tourist exchanges have on the pandemic? Should we fear a resurgence of the epidemic? The answers of Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute of Global Health at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva. After two years of strict travel restrictions and regulations (closed borders, mandatory quarantines, wearing a mask during flights, presentation of negative Covid tests and vaccination certificates…), many Western countries are reducing or eliminating the measures of protection as the summer season approaches. Last May, the European Union removed the obligation to wear the mask for passengers on flights, citing “levels of vaccination and naturally acquired immunity”. France has reopened its borders to anyone, vaccinated or unvaccinated, provided they present a negative Covid test, while Italy has removed all its entry restrictions for international travelers. Across the Atlantic, Sunday last, the United States lifted the requirement to present a negative Covid test before boarding a plane bound for the country, citing the widespread adoption of vaccines. Some wonder if these decisions are not premature, given the unpredictability of the pandemic. Because two new sub-variants of Omicron – BA.4 and BA.5 – first identified in South Africa in early 2022, are spreading rapidly in Europe. The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) warns that while they do not appear to pose a higher risk of serious illness than other forms of Omicron, higher rates of transmission could lead to more hospitalizations and deaths. Portugal has recently experienced an upsurge in infections and deaths caused by these new strains. France also reported an increase in infections and hospitalizations over the past week, also due to the subvariants. The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 has accelerated throughout metropolitan France, indicates Public Health France. The incidence rate has risen sharply in all age groups, as has the positivity rate. So what consequences could international summer travel have on the trajectory of the pandemic? France 24: What effects can we expect on the pandemic after a summer that will be marked by an increase in international travel and the easing or even the abolition of travel restrictions and protective measures? Antoine Flahault: The scientific literature clearly shows that travel and population movements increase the spread of highly transmissible viruses like SARS-CoV-2. Prior to Omicron, countries that had adopted strict border control policies were quite successful in limiting the spread of the virus within their territory. However, with the exception of China, most countries have now lifted these measures, which which likely led to an increase in the speed and intensity of the waves of Covid-19 around the world. As for vaccines, they prove to be ineffective in slowing transmission, but they manage to reduce the burden of Covid-19 in terms of hospitalizations and deaths. Are we heading towards a new wave of Covid in Europe this summer, while borders are open again and restrictions on travel, negative tests and vaccines are lifted? We are clearly seeing the first signs of a new pandemic wave in Western Europe, which seems to be mainly fueled by BA.5, l one of the new Omicron sub-variants, and BA.4, which has already sparked waves in South Africa and Portugal. 4/9 – Is Europe anticipating today that it is on the eve of a summer which could be even more tragic than the heatwave episode of summer 2003 (it claimed 70,000 people elderly, including 15,000 in France)?
Or does she believe that what is happening in Portugal will not reach her?— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) June 15, 2022 Another subvariant, BA.2.12.1, is currently spreading in the United States and is also circulating in Europe, especially in the United Kingdom. The high mobility expected in the coming summer season will not help slow the circulation of these virus strains across the continent. In your opinion, are there any measures that governments should continue to apply to international travel to reduce the risk of spreading Covid-19? Most democracies have moved away from harsh restrictions, choosing more liberal approaches that allow people to protect themselves when they feel the need. It would be difficult to reimplement these past measures without convincing arguments. Of course, if a highly transmissible and virulent strain emerges, there will not be as much debate about whether to take strict measures. But with the existing strains circulating, governments see no reason to continue to apply most of the old measures, even if they have proven useful in the recent past. At this point, where are we overall in our ambition to end the pandemic? The easing of government policies, especially in the United States and Europe, gives the impression that the pandemic is over, but is it really? Vaccines and treatments have made all the difference in this pandemic. Before vaccines were widely distributed, we experienced a form of “medieval” response to the pandemic, with lockdowns and curfews. Today, with the notable exceptions of China and North Korea , we have entered a much more modern phase of the pandemic, which allows people to resume most of their previous activities. However, this “armed peace” is fragile and requires constant vigilance by health authorities in terms of maintaining immunity within the community, as well as more targeted approaches to limit the spread among at-risk populations. We hope we won’t go back to “medieval” style restrictions, but we can’t continue to live with high death rates. 2/8 – The reassuranceists believe that Omicron has changed the situation so much that the situation no longer justifies any mandatory health measures.
The cautious believe that the “armed peace” obtained at the cost of high vaccination coverage remains precarious and justifies wearing a mask— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) June 12, 2022 What are the best ways to protect yourself during this season?For for most people, that means getting fully vaccinated with a booster or two and wearing FFP2 masks indoors and on public transport while avoiding eating and drinking. People should also favor outdoor activities and avoid social interactions. Vulnerable people, over the age of 80, immunocompromised or unvaccinated suffering from pathologies, should provide easy access to Covid tests in the event of symptoms, and to effective antiviral drugs in the event of a positive test. Article adapted from English by Pauline Rouquette. Find the original version here.