The tanks of discord: soon Leopard 2 in Ukraine?

Published on: 06/07/2022 – 16:55Modified on: 06/07/2022 – 16:58 Spain would like to send German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, according to the Spanish daily El Pais. It would be a first for a NATO country: to provide modern tanks to kyiv. Tanks that could have an influence on the outcome of the fighting in the Donbass, but whose export to the Ukrainian front depends on Berlin. “Our solidarity [avec l’Ukraine] is total”. This is the only comment that Margarita Robles, Spanish Defense Minister, was kind enough to provide on Monday, June 7, about the possible sending of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Difficult to see in this a denial or a confirmation of the information published two days earlier in the Spanish daily El Pais. “The Spanish government is ready to deliver to Ukraine the Leopard 2 battle tanks which have been hibernating for a decade in the Spanish army’s logistics base in Zaragoza,” said the influential Madrid newspaper. Third-generation tanksSpain had indeed bought 108 of these German-made tanks in Berlin in 1995 and would have decided to send about forty of them to the Ukrainians soon to help them defend themselves in the war which opposes them to Russia since February 24. The reluctance of the Spanish authorities to confirm this shipment can be understood. Bringing Leopard 2 tanks to kyiv would represent a big leap forward in Western military support for the Ukrainian war effort. “It would be the first time that a NATO country would supply modern western battle tanks”, underlines almost all of the German press in unison. A supply of “modern” military equipment which would probably also be perceived by Moscow as an escalation of tensions with the West. Russia could even use it as a pretext to consider NATO as a “co-belligerent” in the conflict. So far, Ukraine has been defending against Russia mostly with Soviet-era tanks from the late 1970s. Equipment that has two drawbacks. First of all, “this type of vehicles from the USSR era is starting to run out and we don’t control the whole value chain, so some components are only available through Russia. This is far from ideal in the current context. There are solutions to circumvent this problem, but it is time for Ukraine to switch to Western equipment”, underlines Gustav Gressel, specialist in Russian military issues at the European Council on International Relations based in Berlin. The T-64 and T -72 which constitute the bulk of the Ukrainian arsenal are, moreover, far from the latest equipment. “These are what are called second generation tanks, manufactured until the 1970s, while the Leopard 2s are third generation”, underlines Alexandre Vautravers, expert in security and armament and editor-in-chief of the Military Review Switzerland (RMS). This tank therefore belongs to the same family as those still used by Western armies…. even if it is about ten years older than the French Leclerc tank. Capable of making a difference in the Donbass This switch to third-generation equipment would have very concrete implications for the Ukrainian army. “The armor of third generation tanks – especially at the front – is twice as effective as on previous generation vehicles”, notes Alexandre Vautravers. The firepower of these tanks is also much higher. The rate is faster and the ammunition used is much more piercing than on the second generation tanks, specifies the Swiss expert. They are also much more mobile tanks. The difference is not so much in the top speed – 70 km/h against 60 km/h – as in the acceleration. “These are vehicles that can accelerate more easily and quickly on difficult terrain,” summarizes Alexandre Vautravers. He adds that “on-board electronics have made considerable progress”. There are now advanced sight stabilization and dynamic target motion prediction systems. Features that allow “a tank in motion to fire with almost as much precision as if it were stationary”, concludes Alexandre Vautravers. And it is probably this combination of improved mobility and advanced electronics that could make the difference in the Donbass if the Leopard 2s were to be sent to Ukraine. Especially since the tanks used by the Russians are also, in their vast majority, second generation vehicles, improved to have performances worthy of more modern tanks. The Leopard 2s “would be the only ones capable of fighting effectively on the move and they are also much faster in delivering the first shot, which is often decisive in a tank-to-tank confrontation”, summarizes Alexandre Vautravers. Ukrainians can use these tanks. Spain would have offered to send trainers, assures El Pais. And it’s not just about control behind the wheel. A third generation tank is not used like a second generation tank. “If it is to use it in the same way – that is to say essentially for self-defense – we will not see a big difference”, assures Alexandre Vautravers. For him, the Ukrainian doctrine should be adapted in order to take maximum advantage of the offensive capabilities of these vehicles. Berlin in trouble Training is not the only obstacle to the possible use of these tanks by the Ukrainians. The other is called Berlin. As the Leopard 2 is of German manufacture, export to Ukraine would require a green light from the German authorities, recalls the Süddeutsche Zeitung. It is far from certain. For the moment Berlin is sweeping the question aside, assuring that Madrid had not confirmed anything. But the debate over sending main battle tanks to kyiv has been raging for weeks among German officials anyway. “Chancellor Olaf Scholz is very afraid for historical reasons of the political effect of images of German tanks firing on Russians”, emphasizes Gustav Gressel. The government has, admittedly, suggested that the German army could send tanks of fight. But for the time being, there is only question of old second-generation tanks, and the authorities are dragging their feet to put the export machine in motion, recalls the German expert Gustav Gressel. in the ranks of the Ukrainian army thanks to the Spanish military “solidarity” adds a thorn in the German side. Until now, Berlin could claim that even if Germany was reluctant to send tanks, other European countries could do so. Except that the Spanish example recalls “that Germany builds and supplies tanks to almost half of the European countries”, emphasizes Gustav Gressel. The potential European support for kyiv with “modern” military equipment depends more on Germany than on any other state.