Covid: should we be concerned about the increase in the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants among the new cases detected? – Free lunch

Covid cases are starting to increase again in France and Public Health France observes an increase in the sub-lineages of Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 in the contaminations analyzed. The number of new Covid cases is on the rise again. This Monday, June 6, if the figures are low because of Sunday, they are however 32.3% higher than those of last week. The incidence rate is also increasing again. It is 8.4% higher than seven days ago. More and more cases linked to BA.4 and BA.5 A trend that contrasts with the constant decline in indicators, observed for several weeks. On Friday June 3, the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, which spread faster than BA.2, represented 20%, whereas they only represented 12% a few days earlier, reported Nicolas Berrod from Le Parisien. Read also: Covid: the number of positive cases is on the rise again for the first time in France for weeks Sunday June 5, the journalist observed on Twitter an exponential growth in the “number of daily cases corresponding to the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5”. Given this rapid spread, this sub-variant could become the majority in June, projects the Parisian. A moderate impact… In its latest weekly epidemiological bulletin, Public Health France notes this increase in cases and indicates that these sub-variants are closely observed. “The Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sub-lineages are subject to increased surveillance, and have been detected in France since Flash S13 for BA.5 and Flash S16 for BA.4. The detection of BA. 4 and BA.5 during the Flash surveys is on the rise: 0.8% for BA.4 and 5% for BA.5″ compared to 0.5% and 1.5% the previous week”, the report indicates. If these sub-lineages could therefore well lead to a further increase in cases, the scientists want to be reassuring about the impact of this, in particular on the health services.By way of comparison, SPF indicates that in South Africa , where BA.4 and BA.5 were initially detected, “the peak of the epidemic wave associated with these two sub-lineages passed mid-May and its impact was very moderate.” For his part, Arnaud Fontanet, questioned by Le Parisien, predicts “a resumption of cases, without a strong resumption of hospitalizations”….But unknowns to watch out for In the conclusions of its risk analysis of the variants, published in May, Public Health France nevertheless remained cautious. Notably because the situation is not entirely comparable with that observed in South Africa or Portugal, where the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants have been observed. Why ? Because in these two countries, “the previous wave was carried by BA.1 and BA.2 circulated relatively little. However, BA.4 and BA.5 are genetically closer to BA.2 than to BA.1, and BA.2 could therefore confer better protection against BA.4 and BA.5 The impact of BA.4 and BA.5 in countries which, like France, have experienced a sustained circulation of BA.2, could therefore be very different from what is currently observed in South Africa and Portugal”. If today, the situation in France in terms of circulation of variants is stable, Public Health France called on the other hand to maintain vigilance: “The hypothesis of a future dominant variant more pathogenic than Omicron, intrinsically or by an escape more important to the immune response, cannot be ruled out either”.