ANALYSIS | Even if Boris Johnson survives the vote of confidence, his position as prime minister is far from certain.

Boris Johnson fined for partying during lockdown 0:49 London (CNN) — Boris Johnson will face the darkest moment of his term on Monday night, after a confidence vote against him was finally announced after days of speculation that lawmakers from his own Conservative Party had submitted enough letters for this process. The letters come after months of Johnson being dogged by the so-called Partygate scandal and after he was booed in public during the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations. Despite the obvious stress of facing a vote that could end his time in office, Johnson will be somewhat relieved for more than one reason. First, the rebels who had been secretly plotting to get rid of him were finally forced to show their hand. For him to lose the vote, 180 (50% plus one) of Johnson’s Conservative MPs would have to vote against him. That is a difficult task. Any MP who is currently considered to be on the Government payroll is expected to support the Government’s position, and it is obviously the position of the Johnson Government that he remain in power. There are believed to be around 180 parliamentarians on the government payroll, including ministers, parliamentary private secretaries and party vice presidents, although due to the murky disposition of those in non-public jobs, an exact figure is difficult to come by. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his wife Carrie Symonds arrive for a service of thanksgiving at St. Paul’s Cathedral in London on June 3, as part of Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations. . Second, this is much sooner than many expected the vote to take place. The Conservatives are contesting two key by-elections later this month and, unpopular as Johnson may be, using the party’s resources to find a replacement rather than campaign for those seats is clearly far from ideal. Third, none of his rivals are ready. There is no single clear established candidate with political or financial backing to make the transition as smooth as possible. This would make any leadership competition a total disaster, as the party is divided along ideological lines in multiple political areas, including Brexit and economic policy. For all of these reasons, Johnson is likely to survive the vote. That, however, does not mean that his nightmare is over. Clinging to power because of the perceived cowardice of his own MPs will not change Johnson’s dire public approval ratings. He will make you an easy target for attacks from all sides of the political divide. The rebels in his party are unlikely to suddenly shut up. Conventionally, winning a vote of confidence as a Conservative leader means you are immune to another vote for 12 months. However, it is possible that these rules could be rewritten by the Conservative Party. If the party appears to be moving in this direction, then Johnson could call a snap election to bolster support for him among MPs. It would be a drastic and risky move, but it could be the only card left for him to play.