By Regis CREPET, meteorologist
Published on 02/14/19, updated on 05/29/22 at 07:20 Every week, the one-month weather trend is updated. This lasts until June 26 and highlights the establishment of changing weather with contrasting temperatures between the north and the south in the coming days. Cold drops could bring a few showers in the first decade of June, but there are no active rainfall disturbances expected to stem the drought. The weather evolution for the end of May indicates the persistence of a certain freshness on the northern half while the heat would remain in the south. The 1st decade of June could unfold under the threat of “cold drops”, with approximately seasonal temperatures and scattered showers, which will not curb the drought. Then, after June 15th, a warmer trend could return, especially in the south, with a classic north-south gradient. Holidaymakers and the tourism sector should appreciate while water stress will continue for agriculture and gardens. To date, we do not see a real heat wave in forecast. The month of June will perhaps be more mixed and less hot than the month of May, but unfortunately still lacking in rain. Week of May 30 to June 5: mixed weather Temperatures could remain mixed across the country with cool air in the northern half and warm air in the south. Between these different influences, clouds could circulate, with a possible stormy degradation to the south. Week of June 6 to 12: temporarily unstable The period could take place under the influence of “cold drops”, these depressions overhung by cold air at altitude which have the effect of destabilizing the atmosphere, with fairly frequent stormy showers, but disorganized. The feeling would not be gloomy for all that, but more changeable with seasonal temperatures. The reliability of the forecast is quite limited in this type of configuration. On the other hand, what is more reliable is that the scattered showers linked to the cold drops will not resolve the drought. Week of June 13 to 19: return of warm weather in the south This period could be characterized by more unstable weather in the north, and becoming anticyclonic again in the south. This development will depend on the swelling of the Azores anticyclone towards our country and the possible persistence of cold drops. We would then find warm weather, especially in the south. Week of June 20 to 26: summery and dry Rather anticyclonic weather should prevail, but clouds could touch the northeast. Sunnier weather would continue in the west and south. Under these conditions, the temperatures would be quite high and the drought would persist. This month of May, which will be one of the hottest and driest in France since the beginning of the records, should therefore be followed by more changeable weather for the first ten days of June, with stormy showers and fluctuating temperatures. . It could be warmer than normal, with again a deficit of rain, but these excesses should be a notch below those of the month of May which is ending. Next update, Thursday, June 2 at 5 p.m. See also Drought: no improvement in sight in the coming weeks Seasonal forecasts: towards a hot and stormy summer
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