10:55 p.m., May 28, 2022 This is a territory that could fall into the hands of the National Rally (RN) during the legislative elections of June 12 and 19: the 4th constituency of Loiret. And this, despite the candidacy of the former Macronist minister Jean-Michel Blanquer, who precisely came there to fight the far right: “I want to prevent radicalism from dominating our political field”, he assures. According to our Ifop-Fiducial survey for the JDD and Sud Radio, this desire could well be prevented: the representative of Marine Le Pen’s party, Thomas Ménagé, tops the voting intentions in the first round, at 28%. More worrying. again for the former Minister of National Education: with 23% of Loiretans ready to choose him, his qualification for the second round does not seem to be acquired. Because the candidate of the united left, Bruno Nottin, attracts 22% of the voters, a difference included in the margin of error… For the ex-rector without ties in the constituency of Montargis, “the transplant is difficult”, recognizes Frédéric Dabi, Director General of Ifop. Who wonders: “Does he pay for his parachuting or his balance sheet at the National Education? Part of the answer: the candidate for the presidential majority only appeals to 12% of 35-49 year olds, “the generation where there are the most parents of students”. Within this category, it is largely beaten by the RN, at 33%, and the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), which collects 32% of the voting intentions. Jean-Michel Blanquer would barely reach the low water mark of Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the presidential election (24.97%). He would also fail to bring together the voters of the 2017 En Marche candidate, Mélusine Harlé: only 55% of them would give their vote to the former minister, against 20% to Nupes and 13% to the RN .Read also – Legislative: in Essonne, Minister Amélie de Montchalin finds as opponent the former PS deputy Jérôme Guedj50-50Hence the uncertainty hovering around the outcome of the second round. The Ménagé-Blanquer duel is given at 50-50. Facing the left, the RN candidate would win, with 52% of the vote. The favorite of this poll could also benefit from vote reserves. Alexandre Cuignache, representative of Éric Zemmour whose identity was revealed after the survey, harvests 4% of the voting intentions. And Olivier Rohaut, ex-Yellow Vest who has become a figure in the health antipass movement and known to Cyril Hanouna viewers as Oliv Oliv, 2%. In this territory, Marine Le Pen came first in the first (32.65%) and second round (52%) of the presidential election. “It is the easternmost district of the department, the furthest from Orléans, describes Jean-Michel Blanquer. Residents may feel in the blind spot of public policies, abandoned. “For Thomas Ménagé, “people are proud of the score and of Marine Le Pen’s campaign”, in contrast to 2017, when the failed debate between the two rounds had demobilized his electorate, he believes. Read also – Before the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron adopts the low profile strategy The RN could therefore take away these lands, dominated for six decades by the right. Especially since the outgoing deputy of the Republicans, Jean-Pierre Door, has chosen not to stand again after twenty years of reign and that his successor, Ariel Lévy, does not seem able to perpetuate the tradition: his 12% of voting intentions place him far behind the top three. What can the Macronist candidate benefit from? For Frédéric Dabi, “Jean-Michel Blanquer’s lifeline can be the useful right-wing vote to avoid the RN and the left. »
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