In Afghanistan, where the withdrawal of international forces was followed by a Taliban advance, “the first phase of a civil war” is underway. And the country will end up being “split in two”, with the “provincial capitals that will be the last to fall”, with “the south and the east that will end up under Taliban control” and the rest of the territory that “could continue to represent nominally the Afghan state “, even if in fact” divided into feuds of power not directly connected and coordinated with each other “. This is the analysis of Claudio Bertolotti, Ispi associate researcher and director of Start InSight, according to which this would however be “sufficient to guarantee”, also from a formal point of view, “the support of the international community”, of the United States first. . In the meantime, he says in an interview with Aki – Adnkronos International, “it would be appropriate for the United States and the international community to denounce the interference and presence in Afghanistan of elements associated with Pakistani forces, bringing everything back within the limits of international law. “. Because, continues the expert, recalling the complaints of the Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh, Pakistan “has shown not only that it has supported the Taliban for 20 years from a logistical point of view”, but “has also given direct support with the physical presence. of Pakistanis sent to support the Taliban “. ‘the defense minister in the sights of the attack in Kabul is the soul of the resistance’ In the meantime, Bertolotti says, Afghanistan” has entered the first phase of the civil war “and” the provincial capitals are holding, although it is not known how long they will be able to do so. ” Lashkar Gah, the main city of the turbulent southern province of Helmand, “resists – he observes – despite being under siege by the Taliban for weeks”. And today, he says, “we are fighting house by house” after an “advance by the Taliban that has been sudden in the last three months, but has stopped in the suburbs of the main cities where the resistance of the Afghan armed forces, with the contribution of the forces US-trained, motivated, well-equipped and well-salaried Afghan specialists created a barrier. ” In fact, he notes, “the Afghan security forces are resisting in a surprising way”, with the contribution of the US air support. The “civil war” of which Bertolotti speaks – which recalls the various missions on Afghan soil “between 2003 and the 2008 when he was head of the NATO counter-intelligence and security section “and was” one of the 500 Italians who took part in the US ‘Enduring Freedom’ operation “- he is the one who sees on the one hand” the security forces Afghans, who fight but are unable to keep “, and on the other hand” the tribal militias, which are headed by the mujahideen who fought against the Soviets, who have taken up arms “. Weapons, he notes, “given to them by the Afghan Defense Minister, Bismillah Mohammadi”, who ended up in the sights of yesterday’s attack in Kabul claimed by the Taliban. The minister, he explains, “is a bit of the soul of this resistance, which is not only of the Armed Forces, but by now of all the Afghans”. 20 years of operations of the international forces, Bertolotti focuses on the western part of the country, that of Herat, where the Italian soldiers have been deployed. Here “the Taliban conquered all districts more quickly than in the south and east of the country”, but “stopped on the outskirts” of the city. “The offensive – he says – clashed against this barrier made up of soldiers, special forces, militias under the command of Ismail Khan”, which “in the collective imagination is no longer a negative subject”, but “has returned to being ‘l ’emir of Herat’, the ‘lion of Herat’ “. And, he says, “maybe Herat will make it.” The rest of the country, he concludes, “a quarter” of Afghanistan, “could remain in the hands of a former Northern Alliance, which would gather both the militias and what remains of the government, government forces, but also other ethno groups -politicians who are armed and who could keep alive at least formally the Afghan state “that we have known in these 20 years.
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