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Towards a more intense heat wave next week – The Weather Channel

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By Cyril BONNEFOY, meteorologist
Published on 05/12/22, updated on 05/14/22 at 07:20 After some respite in the heat this weekend, especially in the north, the thermometer will soar again on Sunday. Your feeling will become more painful due to the humidity coming from the Atlantic. The heat will be widespread in our country, with nights remaining warm. We can locally approach the heat records on Tuesday and Wednesday in the south. The anticyclone will reinflate over the country this weekend, shifting to the east. This will cause a southerly flow from Sunday, bringing subtropical air up over the country. At the same time, a few thunderstorms will break out in a scattered way, making this heat heavy and humid, especially during the nights. The two hottest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday, with a risk of approaching some records in the south. Sunday: Up to 28°C in the north and 33°C in the south If you don’t like the heat, the respite will have been short-lived in the north since the mercury will rise again this Sunday afternoon. If the minimums promise to be quite breathable at first, the maximums will often show 25 to 30°C with a feeling that will become heavy in the west, ahead of the storms. In the south, we will even speak of high temperatures, because 30°C will already be exceeded in Aquitaine. The feeling will reach 37°C in the interior of the Landes. In the south-east, it will be warm, but to a lesser extent with 26 to 29°C except on the Mediterranean coast, where you will breathe a little more thanks to the south wind and the breezes. Tuesday and Wednesday, the hottest days In the same vein as Sunday, the heat will be widespread on Monday, but will mark a plateau. A fairly marked north-south gradient will be observed, with 23° to 27° north of the Loire, and 27° to 30° south, in particular in Aquitaine and in the lower Rhône valley. Your feeling will often be between 30 and 35°C. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the hottest days with up to 33°C in the southwest and between 25° and 30° locally going towards the northeast. These temperatures will be 5° to 10°C, locally, above seasonal averages. In the northwest, these temperatures will be lower, changing with thunderstorms. If thunderstorms break out, they will have the advantage of temporarily lowering temperatures. But they will remain too rare to bring any real respite. The humidity level remaining high, the heat will be difficult to bear and the feeling will locally reach 39°C in Aquitaine. Also expect very mild nights with often 13 to 17°C in the countryside and up to 18-19°C minimum in large cities. These minimum temperatures are remarkably high for the month of May, worthy of high summer. In this context, we could approach some heat records for the month of May, particularly in the Midi-Pyrénées region (record of 33.4°C in Toulouse), and towards the central regions (record of 32°C in Bourges and 33 .7°C in Saint-Etienne). Overall, we will be within 2°C of the main records, but some could be approached. The forecast national thermal indicator, that is to say the averages for a whole day, could be around 22°C over France during these two days, which is very high. We will still remain well below the heat wave threshold, which is determined at 25.3°C for at least 3 consecutive days. Uncertainties for the future A stormy deterioration should slightly lower temperatures in the northwest on Wednesday, but reliability remains quite limited on this development. Indeed, uncertainties persist on the evolution of the Atlantic low pressure systems to date. If France were to remain rather under the anticyclonic influence, the weather would be drier and still very hot on Wednesday. But conversely, if the storms manage to cross a northern part of our country, the high temperatures would then recede towards the east. Our forecasts rather opt for this outlook, which will have to be confirmed. On the other hand, it seems fairly certain that the heat and the drought will last a long time between Midi-Pyrénées, the south-east and the center-east until the end of next week, before a possible temporary change in weather for the weekend. of May 20. Get ready for a new heat wave that is more extensive and intense than the previous one. If any doubt remains from Wednesday, it seems that the storms will eventually gain ground from the west at the end of the week, which would be good both to lower the thermometer and bring some water to nature. thirsty.

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