Variant of England, declining infections: the hypotheses

“As we know, the summer waves of Sars-CoV-2 in the UK and the Netherlands have been in a phase of sharp decline for about 10 days, despite the total absence of ‘closures’ and the fact that the Delta variant is not only very infectious. , but also manages to puncture vaccines (which instead protect 95% from severe disease and death) “. To explain “this ‘epidemiological mystery'” the virologist Guido Silvestri, professor in the US at Emory University in Atlanta and founder of the social page ‘Pills of optimism’, puts forward 5 hypotheses. Here are the possibilities suggested by the expert: “1) Summer season effect; 2) People become more cautious when they read that there is a wave going on, even without restrictions; 3) The Delta is ‘controlled’ by some genetic factor and / or immunological which limits the availability of susceptible individuals; 4) A highly transmissible virus rapidly burns susceptibles (and runs short of them) in a given epidemiological ‘habitat’; 5) The protection of vaccines against Delta infection has been underestimated due to a sort of temporal bias in the analysis “.