In the separatist region of Moldova, Transnistria, a grenade launcher attacked the building of the so-called Ministry of Internal Security last week. The explosions allegedly also occurred at a military base near Tiraspol and two broadcasting stations were destroyed. While separatists blame Ukrainian “nationalists”, Moldovan President Maia Sandu blames the separatists on the conflict, and experts say it may be a fake flag attack by Russia trying to drag the region into war in Ukraine. Transnistria denies reports of mobilization. Russian and Ukrainian nationalists fought on the same side Transnistria, a region on the east bank of the Dniester River, broke away from Moldova during the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Former Soviet troops who joined their side helped the separatists win the war, and it has since been considered a satellite of Moscow. The justification for the intervention in favor of the separatists was to protect the Russians from “Moldovan nationalism and fascism.” Volunteers also took part in the fighting – nationalists from Russia and Ukraine on the side of Tiraspol, and on the side of Chisinau, volunteers from Romania. The intervention of the 14th Guards Army in favor of the separatists proved to be decisive. The separatists were able to control not only almost the entire territory on the east bank of the Dniester, but also the city of Tighina (known in Russian as Bendery) on the west bank. Therefore, in July 1992, Moldova had to accept a ceasefire and lose control of the eastern part of the republic. Since then, Transnistria’s “independence” has been guaranteed by the presence of Russian forces, currently a total of about two or three battalions. The child of Moscow imperialism Most of Moldova – with the exception of Transnistria – is located in historic Bessarabia. Until 1812, this region formed the eastern half of the Principality of Moldova, which was conquered and annexed by Russian troops during the southern expansion of the Russian Empire. The southern part of Bessarabia, the so-called Budžak, experienced a short Moldovan intermezzo after the Crimean War of 1857, when it returned to Moldova for two decades, but in 1878 it had to surrender it to Russia. The Principality of Moldova disappeared from the map shortly afterwards – it merged with the Principality of Wallachia into a new Romanian state. After the Russian defeat in 1918, Bessarabia declared its independence and united with Romania. This step was not without controversy. In particular, the Ukrainian and Jewish minorities, which together made up about a quarter of the population, were not enthusiastic about Romanian domination. Romanians initially tried to deny Jews in the newly acquired territories until Western diplomatic pressure led them to make concessions. Throughout the interwar period, Soviet maps showed Bessarabia as an “occupied” part of the Soviet Union, and after the conclusion of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in 1939, the Soviet Union forced the Romanians to surrender the disputed territory. How Transnistria was founded The history of Transnistria dates back to 1924, when the Autonomous SSR (Soviet Socialist Republic) was established on the territory of the Ukrainian SSR. It included the territory of Transnistria and part of today’s Ukraine with the city of the Baltics, and half of the population was made up of Ukrainians, Moldovans and Romanians only less than a third. The creation of an autonomous SSR right on the other bank of the Dniester was also supposed to be a signal to Bessarabia that the Soviet Union would not give up its claim to this territory. After the annexation of Bessarabia, the Soviet Union annexed most of the new territory to the (Transnistrian) Moldovan Autonomous SSR, which Moscow promoted to a separate SSR. The predominantly Ukrainian-inhabited part of the former Autonomous Republic returned Ukraine. During the post-war period, Transnistria gradually industrialized. Many Russians, whose share of the population has risen so significantly, have also moved to new industrial centers such as Tiraspol. During the collapse of the Soviet Union, a large part of the Russian population did not want to remain separated from Moscow, especially those who did not even know Romanian. Even before the official independence of Moldova, a separatist movement emerged. Its leader in 1990 was the Russian Igor Smirnov. He himself did not come from Transnistria at all, he was born in Kamchatka and after a long period of activity in Ukraine he moved to Transnistria only in 1987. The fears of many Russians and Ukrainians increased even more when the reunification with Romania began in Moldova. In a way, it suited Moscow, and with the support of Transnistria, it maintained a lever with which it could further influence Moldovan policy and prevent the country from Western integration. Bulgaria has officially called on its citizens to leave Moldova.Israel has called on its citizens to leave Transnistria. pic.twitter.com/WQZcVSF5f8 – Visegrad 24 (@ visegrad24) April 28, 2022 In the early years of Putin’s government, a Russian party’s proposal to resolve the conflict emerged. According to a proposal made in 2003 by Dmitry Kozak, a politician close to Putin, Transnistria would be, like Gagauz, part of Moldova with extensive autonomy, and the Russian army would remain in the region for about 20 years. Despite the possibility of uniting the country for a long time and getting rid of Russian forces, Chisinau did not accept the Russian offer at that time. Not only was the Russians’ offer to withdraw their troops in 20 years too far in the future for the Moldovans to take seriously, the main stumbling block was the division of power in the united state. Kozak’s plan proposed that he gain nine and four senators in the Moldovan Senate, Transnistria and Gagauz, respectively – compared to 13 Moldovans. Separatist regions, which together did not make up even a fifth of the population, would thus occupy exactly half of the senate. Crimean scenario Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and in Transnistria, voices have been heard calling for annexation by the Russian Federation. According to the 2015 census, for the first time in history, Russians make up the largest ethnic group in the region, about 33 percent of the population. Even before the outbreak of the conflict, in 1989, their share reached only 25.5 percent of the population, and the largest group with almost 40 percent were Moldovans, followed by Ukrainians (28.3 percent). Since then, the share of Moldovans has fallen to 33 percent, the share of Ukrainians has fallen slightly to 26.7 percent. At the same time, however, the region has seen a dramatic decline in population. Of the 730,000 in 1989, according to current estimates, less than 350,000 remained. Many left Transnistria and went to work, Transnistrians earn mainly in Moscow and other parts of Russia. As Transnistria does not recognize any country in the world as independent, the population needs other documents, Russian, Moldovan or Ukrainian, to travel abroad. About two hundred Transnistians therefore have a Russian passport. More than just Transnistria? As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Moldova, fears have risen in recent weeks that Russian tanks would not stop in the event of a victory in Ukraine, but continued on to Chisinau. The reason is that Moldovan-Russian relations are going through a crisis. Since Russia’s intervention in the Transnistrian war, pro-European and pro-Russian governments have alternated in Moldova, with pro-Western ones wanting deeper EU integration and close cooperation with Romania, while pro-Russian forces have hoped that Moscow would appreciate their loyalty on the Transnistrian issue. The current Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, has been on knives with the Kremlin for a long time. After her election, the Russians raised gas prices by the Moldovans, and Sandu called on the Russians to withdraw their troops from Transnistria. Gagauzia, mentioned above, could be a pretext for Moscow. The autonomous region of southern Moldova has a population of about 130,000, of which more than 80 percent are Gagauz. The Gagauzi is a Turkish-speaking nation, but it is characterized by being almost exclusively Orthodox Christian. Their origin is unclear, according to some hypotheses, they are descendants of the Seljuks, who lost the power struggle in Anatolia and fled to the Byzantine Empire before their rivals. According to other sources, they are remnants of the nomadic tribes Kumanov (Polovcov), Jasov or Pečenehov, who inhabited the southern Ukrainian steppes before the arrival of the Mongols and Tatars. Today, Gagauz is one of the strongholds of pro-Russian post-communists, many Gagauz migrating to Moscow or Istanbul for economic reasons. Invasion If Russia really wants to change the government in Chisinau, forces in Transnistria will be insufficient for such an operation. They would therefore have to be supported by additional troops that would either break through the Ukrainian defenses at Mykolaiv or land in the vicinity of Odessa and Budzak (southern Bessarabia). According to the English Times, Ukraine fears such a scenario in which the Russians would take power in Moldova and open a second front in the west of the country. However, according to Western estimates, Russian forces are currently insufficient to capture Chisinau. Journalist Louise Callaghan, who recently visited Moldova for the Sunday Times, writes: “The people in Transnistria I spoke to are really afraid that Ukraine will attack them. This is the line that is being promoted in the pro-Russian local media: scary ultra-nationalist Ukrainians, armed with the United States, are rolling across the border. Men are afraid that they will be called to battle. Some have already left for other regions of Moldova. But they feel very little apparent hostility to Chisinau. Every young person I spoke to said that he wanted to join Moldova as part of the federation. ”Even Russian forces, whose number in Transnistria is estimated at 1,500, are not a real threat. The majority are local boys, for whom service in the Russian army is an opportunity for better earnings, no elite units. Callaghan continues: “In Chisinau, the government is preparing for a number of scenarios. He believes that the biggest risk at the moment is not the Russian invasion of Moldova (they would have to take Odessa for that, and that seems unlikely at the moment). But the point is that pro-Kremlin actors in Moldova (including the Transnistria region) will (…) destabilize the country through mysterious explosions, gas price manipulations, misinformation and inciting social unrest at events such as the 9 May celebrations. ” Matej R. Riško says about the events in Transnistria for the Attitude: “It is an almost exemplary version of a fake flag, there are also several pictorial and video recordings. Russia is undoubtedly trying to drag Transnistria into the war, but its contribution would only lie in building up part of Ukraine’s defense. In Transnistria, there appear to be three mechanized battalions of Russian forces and a total of about 12,000 troops, which is not a particularly significant military force. In addition, it is very poorly armed and outdated, morally as well as technically. ”In the current configuration, the Russian army clearly lacks the strength to conquer all of southern Ukraine. According to analyst Michael Kofman, the Russian army remains the last offensive before it is so exhausted that it will not be able to carry out further successful offensives. The problem is not that the Russians are unable to replace the lost tanks or planes, even though these losses are considerable, but especially that they are unable to compensate for the loss of personnel. However, the mobilization and official declaration of war could solve this problem. On the other hand, it would increase the bets on the Kremlin – while only a “special operation” is officially underway, almost anything can declare victory. However, if it declares a state of war, Moscow will have to pursue maximalist goals. This would mean that the war would last for several more months or even years. It therefore remains to be seen whether Russia will actually begin preparing for a mass mobilization of reservists. If the Kremlin actually declares a state of war, it does not have to stop only in Ukraine.