Meeting of energy ministers on Monday 2 May, ambassadors from the 27 Member States on Wednesday in Brussels… Telephones and videoconference screens are heating up in all the capitals of the Union. Objective: to reach an agreement, which must be unanimous on this issue, to impose a gradual cessation of purchases of Russian petroleum products by the end of the year. If the Commission’s draft, which is to be presented on Wednesday, is validated by the States, this sixth set of sanctions since the start of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 would be the most serious for Russia. Most likely to retaliate too. This is why Brussels is also working on a Russian response. On April 27, Putin cut off the gas tap to Poland and Bulgaria, on the grounds that they were not paying in rubles as he demands. However, companies from several countries, notably Germany, have payments to make to Gazprom in the weeks to come. Why is this embargo so important? Quite simply because the European Union is putting billions of euros on the table (12.3 so far, combining military, economic and humanitarian aid) to help Ukraine defend itself against an aggressor it has financed in 2021 to the tune of… 100 billion by buying its hydrocarbons (!), according to the International Energy Agency [Ici, en anglais]. An embargo on Russian oil, which brings Moscow much more (80 billion in 2021) than gas (20 billion), would be a very severe blow. It also has the advantage of being less complicated to manage, and therefore less painful, for Europeans who are less dependent on gas than on Russian oil. Of course, Russia will have the opportunity to sell its oil to other customers. This is in theory easier than for gas, delivered via expensive pipes or LNG terminals. But in reality, the operation is complex and not applicable to all of the production sold today in Europe. Why is this embargo so complicated? It implies the unanimity of the 27 European States. However, they are not all equal in the face of Russian oil. Two countries in particular pose a problem: Slovakia and above all the Hungary of Viktor Orban, the last of Putin’s friends in the EU. These two landlocked countries are supplied almost exclusively by Russian pipelines. They have no ports and will only say yes if their EU partners offer them alternatives. Which will have a cost. The other pitfall is the risk, by seeking supplies elsewhere and given the weight of the European economy, of causing a surge in world prices, or even an oil shock and a global recession. What is the Commission’s strategy? Go gradually! The plan is to reduce imports by the end of the year to allow time for the alternatives to be put in place and avoid weighing on the world market. Brussels has also begun to apply this strategy by unveiling it several days ago. The 6th package of measures, which intends to sanction Russia’s entire oil ecosystem, according to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, includes other levers. By the end of the year, but also for the residual quantities that the EU could not do without, it plans to tax the transport of Russian oil by tanker. And to embarrass Russia, Sberbank, the institution which represents 37% of the Russian oil market, should be excluded from the Swift interbank transaction system. War in Ukraine. Three questions about the embargo on Russian oil, the heaviest sanctionEXPAND