Presidential 2022: what does Marine Le Pen’s economic program contain and who would benefit from it? – franceinfo

She assures him: she has changed. Marked by the debate between the failed rounds of 2017, where she appeared unsure of her calculations, Marine Le Pen reviewed her copy in 2022. Exit leaving the European Union or retiring at 60 for everyone. This time, the National Rally candidate in the presidential election is betting everything on her proposals on purchasing power… and on a program that she claims to be in balance. What is it really ? Franceinfo has deciphered its proposals. >> Presidential 2022: follow the last days of the campaign in our live The principle of economic patriotism The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have reminded us that the flaws of globalization, with shortages, delays, increases price… Marine Le Pen therefore proposes to set up “economic patriotism” and “localism” to “reindustrialize and produce wealth in France”. Questioned by franceinfo, his chief of staff, Renaud Labaye, recognizes that “we cannot relocate everything”. He assures that a focus will be put on “industry”, the products necessary for “sovereignty” and sectors with “high added value”. A project very similar … to that of “France Relance”, set up by Emmanuel Macron in 2020. “We cannot deny that wanting to relocate the strategic sectors was a good idea”, recognizes Renaud Labaye. However, he judges that the amount of one billion euros allocated by the government to encourage relocation is “too low”. Will Lepenist relocation only take place within our borders, without taking into account our European neighbours? Impossible, according to Anne-Sophie Alsif, chief economist at BDO France, an economic consulting firm. On the one hand, because “France is a very small market, less attractive for companies than the European Union”. On the other hand, because “value chains already exist at European level”, with a distribution of the different stages of production, according to the economic efficiency of each country and the skills available there. Producing entirely on our territory would generate much higher costs, and therefore a higher price for the consumer. “Links with other EU countries will be possible,” tempers the adviser to the RN candidate, who nevertheless believes that by “breaking the vicious circle of relocations-loss of jobs-lower purchasing power, the French will find the margin to buy products whose price will have been a little higher”. The RN candidate also wants to reduce the French contribution to the European Union budget by “five billion euros”. Problem: the contribution of each member country is fixed according to identical rules, for seven years. In theory, France is committed until 2027. This would not prevent the candidate, if elected, from starting negotiations before this date, assures her team. Some countries, such as the United Kingdom or the Netherlands, have already succeeded in obtaining rebates: the probability of a rebate is therefore considered “completely possible” by certain economists, such as Eulalia Rubio, researcher at the Institute Jacques-Delors, requested by TF1. On the other hand, it seems to him “impossible” that it is of the magnitude hoped for by the RN. But if France does not pay the full contribution due, it will face prosecution and sanctions, including the end of the generous Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies, from which French farmers largely benefit. >> Presidential: what the election of Marine Le Pen would change internationally Marine Le Pen’s economic patriotism does not stop there. The far-right candidate wants to establish a “national priority” in access to public contracts. But this measure would violate European competition law, believes the Terra Nova Foundation, labeled as close to the center-left. This decision would result “in higher prices for the public authorities first, and then for the taxpayer or the user”, according to the think tank. Measures for purchasing power Marine Le Pen’s campaign largely revolved around her promise to restore purchasing power to the “forgotten” of Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term. However, his program multiplies the proposals that benefit the portfolio of the wealthiest, at least as much as that of the working classes. >> Presidential 2022: we have scrutinized the proposals for the purchasing power of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen The candidate thus promises to “lower VAT from 20% to 5.5%” on energy products, in particular the fuels. This would be equivalent to “subsidizing well-to-do households who are high fuel consumers because they have large vehicles”, explains Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). Similarly, the 15% reduction in toll rates would benefit all motorists. “The motorway is usually used for long journeys (…) and more rarely for daily journeys of the home-work type”, further underlines Terra Nova. Unlike many of its competitors, who had chosen to increase the minimum wage to improve the purchasing power of the most precarious workers, Marine Le Pen wishes to encourage companies to increase by 10% wages below three times the amount minimum wage (4,947 euros gross, i.e. more than 1,760 euros above the median salary) by exempting this increase in employer contributions. But the Institut Montaigne, a liberal think tank, considers that this exemption would above all create a windfall effect: it would benefit companies that had already planned to increase wages without leading to new increases. What about the abolition of VAT on a “hundred of basic necessities (…) as long as inflation is one point higher than growth”? It could in theory relieve the budget of the most modest as well as the wealthiest, but it is complicated to assess the gain for consumers, because the list of products concerned is not finalized. Marine Le Pen listed on BFMTV “salt, pepper, oil, pasta, sanitary napkins, diapers”. However, most of these items already benefit from 5.5% VAT. The effectiveness of this measure would also depend on “the behavior of producers” and distributors, who could take advantage of the abolition of the tax to increase their prices, explains Brice Fabre, economist at the Institute of Public Policy. In which case, Marine Le Pen could resort to price blocking, assures her chief of staff. Taxation in favor of the wealthiest Here again, the tax policy of Marine Le Pen’s program would above all benefit the wealthiest and businesses. The candidate thus proposes exemption from income tax for all young workers up to the age of 30, so that they “stay in France and start their family with us”. In fact, this measure would mainly concern the wealthiest young people. With an average income of 7,490 euros per year, the vast majority of 18-25 year olds are not subject to income tax. As for 26-30 year olds, their income (16,220 euros on average) “exposes them to a tax burden itself very low in the majority of cases”, underlines the think tank Terra Nova. “Where the precarious young person will earn almost nothing, the young graduate executive will pocket a few thousand euros and the State will lose a few additional billions.” The gifts to the wealthiest would also concern taxation on heritage. Marine Le Pen wants to replace the property wealth tax (IFI) with a financial wealth tax, from which the main residence will be exempt. A measure that “will protect the middle classes who sometimes entered the ISF [prédécesseur de l’IFI] because of the simple valuation of a family real estate heritage”, assured the candidate to the Parisian. Currently, the IFI concerns real estate heritage greater than 1.3 million euros, from which the existing debts must be deducted as well as a 30% reduction on the principal residence. In other words, a French person whose real estate assets consist of a principal residence worth 1.7 million euros does not pay tax on the latter. The candidate also plans to reduce inheritance tax, a “textbook case of the empty gift”, according to Terra Nova, and for good reason: like any inheritance tax reform, it mainly concerns the wealthiest French people. “85 to 90% of direct line inheritances (from parent to child) are tax exempt,” economist Clément Dherbécourt explained to franceinfo. , Marine Le Pen published a documentary costing to detail how it will balance its budget. But his explanations are far from having convinced the economists, who consider for many that the cost of the planned measures is largely underestimated. The Institut Montaigne thus assesses the amount of expenditure at 119.6 billion euros, far from the 68.3 billion forecast. Several of the measures identified as “without budgetary consequence” would also have a real cost for the State, according to economists. “It is not a finance bill, it is an order of magnitude of the measures”, justifies the director of cabinet of Marine Le Pen. The revenues that would offset the expenses identified by the candidate are also unclear. The fight against fraud is thus supposed to bring in 15 billion euros. But “wanting to fully recover the amount linked to the fraud is illusory”, recalls Xavier Timbeau, certain parameters being difficult to control (payments in cash, overtime, etc.). “We can hope to recover seven billion euros from social fraud, but not before 2027. (…) As for tax evasion, going beyond 5 billion euros seems complicated to me,” said lobbyist Agnès Verdier. -Molinie in Le Parisien. At the National Rally, Renaud Labaye relies on “a dedicated ministry” and a “political will” to achieve the objective. Some recipes, such as the forecast that “the sharp drop in immigration will make it possible to lower many expenses linked to insecurity”, estimated at two billion euros, seem even more vague. “It is an estimate of what the drop in crime will bring, there will be savings on the budget of translators in the courts or on the damage to police cars for example”, details Renaud Labaye.