Three weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, former Colonel Mikhail Chodarenok wrote about the prospects of Putin’s army. He presented six theses, the veracity of which can be checked after the first phase of the war. The result is surprising: Chodarenok was right in all his predictions, writes focus.de. 1. No flowers for “liberators” Before the war, Russian analysts claimed that the Ukrainians would call Putin’s soldiers liberators. They were to stand in the streets with bouquets of flowers. “In practice, this means complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the general population in the neighboring country,” Chodarenok said. Events in eastern Ukraine since 2014 have shown that in many large cities, even many Russian-speaking Ukrainians do not want to be part of the so-called. New Russia. “No one will welcome the Russian army in Ukraine with bread, salt and flowers.” The Russian offensive war brought the Ukrainians and their government closer together. The army and many volunteers put up strong resistance to the invaders. Attempts by the Russian army to shoot propaganda videos in some cities, where flowers were delivered to the “liberator”, sabotaged the population. 2. Ukraine cannot be destroyed with a single blow Some political experts in Russia assumed that “heavy fire will destroy almost all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and armored formations.” One devastating blow could be enough to end the war. In his text, Chodarenok explained how such massive fire would work, and concluded: “Of course, massive fire will inflict heavy losses on a potential enemy. operations. ” Russia would also simply lack a huge number of high-precision weapons. “Russia’s arsenal is absolutely insufficient to wipe such a state off the face of the earth.” Photo gallery (6) Ukraine destroyed by war
Source: SITA / AP Photo / Alexei Alexandrov Such a radical strike with the effect of ending the war never took place. Among other things, Russia used hypersonic missiles, which did not bring any success. On the contrary: parts of the Russian military have proved so old and dilapidated that it has caused and continues to cause great problems for Putin’s army. 3. Russia’s air superiority will not decide the war quickly According to Chodarenko, Russian experts assume that the war will end quickly, because Russia will have an air superiority. Chodarenok replied that it is sometimes forgotten that Afghan and Chechen fighters do not have a single plane in their conflicts. Nevertheless, they caused serious damage to the Russians and the wars dragged on for years. And Ukraine has fighters and air defense. “It should not be forgotten that Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile crews caused shocking losses to the Russian Air Force in the war in Georgia in 2008.” Photo gallery (6) Footage from the destroyed Mariupol.
Source: SITA / AP Photo / Alexei Alexandrov Contrary to reports to the contrary, shortly after the start of the war, Russia never succeeded in completely taking over air supremacy. Of course, there have been many raids on Ukrainian cities and military targets. But Ukraine’s air defenses are still intact – from the ground and from the air. It caused heavy losses to the Russians. In addition, Russia has failed to support ground forces, for example around Kiev, from the air so that breakthroughs can be achieved. As a result, the war did not end quickly. 4. The Ukrainian army is not bad before the offensive war in Russia, the presumption prevailed that the Ukrainian army was in a deplorable state. Chodarenok strongly opposed it. “Over the last seven years, a qualitatively different army has emerged in Ukraine on a completely different ideological basis and largely by NATO standards.” It has very modern weapons and equipment, supplied from many NATO countries. In addition, the colonel assumed that the West would not supply Ukraine with troops in the event of war, but with even more weapons. “Of course, today the Armed Forces of Ukraine are significantly worse than the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in terms of their combat and operational capabilities. But even this army does not need to be taken lightly.” Photo gallery (6) Current images from Mariupol
Source: SITA / AP Photo / Alexei Alexandrov While the Russian army was evidently overestimated, the Ukrainian was underestimated. In large numbers, the Ukrainians managed to stop or even push the Russians in many places. Chodarenok was also right about the supply of weapons from the West. 5. Defense will be successful especially in large cities Before the war, Russian experts assumed that even large cities could be conquered with air support in a matter of hours. In his speech, Chodarenok recalled the strength of the partisans. “Armed struggle in major Ukrainian cities is generally unpredictable.” According to him, a big city is the best battlefield for a weak and technically less developed party. A large number of fighters could concentrate and hide in large cities. And you could supply them with material resources for a long time. “The urban environment helps defenders and slows down attackers,” says the analyst. Ukraine, with many large cities, could thus replace the gap in the armed forces and technology. “During the war with Ukraine, the Russian army may encounter much more than Grozny.” We know that Russia has so far failed to conquer any of the great Ukrainian cities; Kiev, Kharkov, Dnipro, Odessa are still in the hands of Ukraine. Only in Cherson (almost 300,000 inhabitants) did the Russians succeed. Chodarenko’s thesis is most likely valid in the strategically important port city of Mariupol. The city has been under siege for weeks. However, Russia still failed to conquer the city. Eight weeks after the start of the war, Ukrainian resistance fighters are still defending themselves. 6. There will be no blitzkrieg in Ukraine Many estimates have circulated in Russia about a possible aggressive war against Ukraine. Some experts assumed that it would only take a few hours. Others lied to themselves when they said that you could defeat most units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30 to 40 minutes. Photo gallery (6) Ukrainian soldier in Mariupol
Source: SITA / AP Photo / Mstyslav Chernov Chodarenok, based on his previous theses, formulates a clear conclusion: “There will be no blitzkrieg in Ukraine. Too excited Russian experts should forget about their hateful fantasies.” There was no blitzkrieg. The expectations of Western experts that Kiev may fall in a matter of hours or days have also not been fulfilled. Russia is now embarking on its second major offensive, the outcome of which is uncertain.