Minute by minute: Richard Branson goes into space

If all goes according to plan, billionaire Richard Branson will head into space today with the help of his company, Virgin Galactic.

After working to perfect the spacecraft for more than two decades, Branson will be the first billionaire to travel into space aboard a vehicle he helped finance, beating out Amazon founder Jeff Bezos by just nine days.

So how risky is this flight into space?

Here’s a breakdown of the risks Branson and his team will face:

The possibilities are endless when it comes to potential hazards – the rocket motor might not start. The cabin could lose pressure and threaten the lives of the passengers. And the intense physics involved in leaving and returning to Earth’s atmosphere could wreck the vehicle.

However, the spacecraft that Branson will board, also known as VSS Unity, has had three successful test flights. In May 2021, Virgin Galactic received approval from the Federal Aviation Administration to begin flying passengers. However, it is important to note that the FAA is primarily focused on ensuring the safety of people and property on the ground. Therefore, this approval does not necessarily guarantee that the spacecraft is safe.

In the years leading up to FAA approval, several test flights had trouble, including one in 2014 that left a pilot dead and another seriously injured. In 2019, a seal on the space plane’s wing came apart during a test flight, and on a December 2020 test flight, the rocket engine computer onboard VSS Unity lost connection.

Markus Guerster, an aerospace industry professional who co-authored a 2018 paper on the risks of suborbital space tourism, told us that there is never a perfect time for a company to consider its spacecraft safe enough to fly members of the public.

“It’s a bit of a difficult decision to make, if he’s ready, or if he’s not, because there is still some risk left. But if he doesn’t try, he’s not going to learn either.” Guerster said. “I think the first group of people to fly in this recognizes the risk. There are a lot of people who climb Mount Everest.”

From the moment the mothership leaves the ground to the moment the spacecraft lands back on it, Branson’s journey should only take about an hour. Unlike traditional space travel, in which astronauts circle Earth and float in space for days, Virgin Galactic flights are short round trips. But the spacecraft will soar more than 80 kilometers above Earth, which the US government considers to be the limit of outer space.