BFMTV SURVEY. Presidential: Emmanuel Macron widens the gap slightly with Marine Le Pen

According to our latest Opinion 2022 poll carried out by the Elabe institute, the outgoing president would win on the evening of the second round, and gain 1.5 points compared to our last survey. The favorable dynamic enjoyed by Marine Le Pen in the polls carried out before the first round is it crumbling? According to our latest Opinion 2022 survey, carried out by the Elabe institute for BFMTV, L’Express and SFR, Emmanuel Macron is declared the winner with 53.5% of the votes on the evening of the second round. This is 1.5 points more per compared to the last Elabe survey carried out on Sunday evening, after the announcement of the results of the first round. Marine Le Pen is on her losing side, with 46.5% of the vote. This is 1.5 points less than during our last survey. On the left, a report of votes favorable to Emmanuel Macron According to the Elabe Institute, the lead currently enjoyed by Emmanuel Macron in the polls is explained by several factors. First, his best performance in the first round – 4.7 points more than his opponent – but also by a phenomenon of vote carryover being favorable to him. 35% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters indicate that they want to vote for Emmanuel Macron in the second round, against 27% for Marine Le Pen. Among the voters of Valérie Pécresse, they are 42% to want to vote for Emmanuel Macron, and 29% for Marine Le Pen. But it is among the voters of Yannick Jadot that the carryover of votes is the most favorable for the outgoing president. 63% of them say they want to vote for him on April 24, compared to 18% for Marine Le Pen. Infographics showing the dynamics of vote transfer for the second round. © Elabe Institute screenshot The importance of the debate between the two candidates Our survey illustrates the great indecision that lives in some voters 12 days before the second round. 3 out of 10 registrants ensure that the debate between the two rounds will have an influence on their decision on April 24. Among these undecided, there is a greater proportion of potential Marine Le Pen voters. They are 32% to ensure that the debate will influence their decision, against 26% among the voters of Emmanuel Macron. Concerning the intention of the respondents to go to the polls on April 24, they are 63% to say to themselves “totally certain to vote”, 10% “are seriously considering voting” and 27% “probably will not vote”. Our survey shows, however, that the momentum in favor of Emmanuel Macron is less favorable than it seems. was five years ago. Before the second round of the 2017 election, Emmanuel Macron could boast of 64% voting intentions, against 36% for Marine Le Pen. The reason for this narrowing of the gap between the two candidates? The fact that Marine Le Pen has a large reserve of votes this year among Éric Zemmour’s voters, who obtained 7.1% in the first round. 76% of its voters let it be known that they will vote for Marine Le Pen on April 24. Sample of 1,627 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,518 registered on the electoral lists. Questioning by Internet from April 12 to 13, 2022. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age, socio-professional category, region of residence and category of agglomeration. For questions intention to vote, only people registered on the electoral lists and intending to vote are taken into account. For questions of opinion, the entire sample is taken into account. Margin of error between 1.1 and 3.1 percentage points.