At 8 p.m., the final abstention rate should stand at 26.5%, according to an Elabe projection for BFMTV. A level unseen for 20 years, but which does not beat the sad record of 2002. At the end of an unprecedented presidential campaign, more than a quarter of French people could have abstained from voting in the first round. The abstention rate will reach 26.5% at 8 p.m., according to our first Elabe estimate for BFMTV and L’Express carried out with our partner SFR. A figure up from the first round of the 2017 election: at the At the time, the final abstention rate was 22.23%. Such a level of abstention is very high for a presidential election, considered the queen election of the Fifth Republic. However, contrary to the most pessimistic forecasts, the 2002 record will therefore not be beaten. At the time, 28.40% of French people had abstained from voting in the first round of the ballot.”This figure is not a surprise”While our Elabe projection will necessarily be refined, it is likely to be more important “by four points than what we experienced in 2017”, also notes Bernard Sananès, president of the Elabe polling institute. “If the 2002 record would not then be beaten, we would not be very far from it,” he adds. our polls specialist. He also explains this low participation rate for several reasons: both structural and economic. First, he notes, “for several years we have seen a growing distrust of politics in the country: 58% of French people say they do not trust them, for example. And then we have to say that the campaign took a long time to start, it did not interest the French and turned out to be particularly volatile “.” The crystallization of a moment that did not interest “For Julie Graziani, BFMTV editorialist, “this abstention can crystallize at a given moment and represent the sanction of a political moment which did not interest the voters”. The editorialist considers that this electoral campaign was characterized by “a certain sluggishness”. “It was without real stake, with a very fragmented political landscape and the feeling of a certain powerlessness.” However, according to her, “this does not does not mean that politics will no longer be of interest in the future. We can quite imagine that if the candidates worked on a new program, launched themselves with a new dynamic, or if they proposed more mobilizing candidacies, the voters would be mobilized again”. Apart from 2002, the highest abstentions until then had been, for a first round, 1969 (22.4%) and 2017 (22.23%), i.e. 3 or 4 points of less than what is anticipated for this Sunday. After catastrophic rates in the municipal elections of 2020 and especially in the regional and departmental elections of 2021, where two-thirds of French people had shunned the ballot box, a rate of 25% to 26.5% would however sign a notable rebound in participation confirming that the he presidential election remains, despite everything, the favorite election of the French.Jeanne Bulant Journalist BFMTV
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