Presidential: where does this poll come from which announces Marine Le Pen winning against Macron in the second round? – Liberation

Presidential Election 2022 file An opinion poll carried out by the Brazilian institute Atlas Intel and giving the victorious RN candidate, was published Thursday, without prior discussion with the polls commission in France. In a message published on April 7 on its Twitter account, the Europe Elect organization delivers the predictions of several possible second-round configurations for the French presidential election. Among the scenarios studied, the Macron/Le Pen duel gives the winning far-right candidate, with 50.5% of the vote. On its site, Europe Elect, which claims to act “like a watchdog of democracy in authoritarian countries”, presents itself as “a market leader in the analysis of polls and electoral data in Europe”. Based in Germany, this start-up says it “contextualizes data for free for 204,000 followers on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Telegram and YouTube”, and provides “analysis to Al Jazeera, Euronews, the Heinrich-Boell Foundation, the university of Georgia and other major international players in the past.” A Brazilian institute Where do these numbers come from giving Le Pen the winner in the second round? The question arises all the more since no French pollster has ever communicated, for the moment, on a victory for the far right in the presidential election, even if the very latest surveys show a tightening of voting intentions, like this Elabe poll for BFMTV, which reports 51% for Macron and 49% for Le Pen? Contacted by CheckNews, Europe Elect, explains that this is a survey carried out by a Brazilian organization, Atlas Intel, based in Sao Paulo. Carried out online from April 4 to 6 with 1,946 people, it gives, for the 1st round, 27.8% for Macron, 21.3% for Le Pen, 18.6% for Mélenchon, 12% for Zemmour, 5 .3% for Pécresse and 5% for Jadot. Screenshot of the Atlas Intel polling institute And for the second round Macron-Le Pen, therefore, 50.5% in favor of the candidate of RN.Macron / Le Pen, the only scenario identified by the Brazilian institute Atlas Intel which would see the outgoing president beaten. “The classic methodology criteria respected” What to think of this survey, carried out by a foreign institute? “It is common, before major elections, to see institutes publish a survey in a country where they are not usually active, reminds CheckNews Adèle Stebach, of Europe Elect. Kantar, whom we know well in France, does it regularly and in almost all of Europe. In this case, it is therefore a survey by Atlas Intel / Atlas Político, one of the main Brazilian institutes. They have been publishing polls for a few years now in countries where they are not usually active before major elections.” And to assure: “Europe Elect tries to be as careful as possible with the polls conducted” abroad”: firstly, because surveying a country without being active there full time is always delicate… Also, because many institutes that do this do not respect the French methodological criteria. But for once, Atlas respects all the classic methodological criteria.” According to Adèle Stebach, this organization has also proven itself in this area: “No institute was closer to the final result than them during the 2020 US elections, including the North American institutes. 538, which is a sounding Bible, even praised it last year. In this context, we considered that we had no objective reason not to share this survey, although clearly specifying in response to the publication that it should be read with caution. “The polls commission, for its part, shows more measured. In a press release published this Friday on its site, it warns that “this organization, which has never published electoral polls in France, has not sent the polls commission a prior declaration, in accordance with article 7 of the law of 19 July 1977”. Therefore, and “in view of the elements communicated to it, the commission is not in a position to verify the panel used, the quality of the sample and the filters used to carry out this study. It therefore invites everyone to consider it with the greatest reserve.” Macron re-elected, a probability of 92% Joined by CheckNews, the commission confirms that “when we do an electoral survey on France, we must first address to the polling committee. This is not a legal obligation but it allows us to agree on the criteria for the opinion poll. Now, they only showed up last night [le 7 avril, ndlr], so after the survey has been carried out.” “That does not mean that this survey is without value, specifies the commission. But we are missing a lot of elements, such as the composition of the panel and the way the sample was drawn from it, or the order in which the questions were asked.” Europe Elect, for its part, recalls that ‘it also carries out the aggregation of polls. And in its latest update, carried out on Thursday evening, the average stands at 52.1% in favor of Emmanuel Macron in the second round against Marine Le Pen. With “a probability for him to be elected of 92% if such a second round took place today”, adds the start-up.

1 thought on “Presidential: where does this poll come from which announces Marine Le Pen winning against Macron in the second round? – Liberation”

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