Analysis | A long war of attrition in Ukraine will have huge global consequences

Can the international community stop Putin? 2:07 (CNN) — The Russian invasion of Ukraine is morphing into a war of attrition that heralds months of more human carnage and will send the shock waves of Vladimir Putin’s onslaught to millions around the world. The rapid reassessment of the length, nature and costs of the war is due to Russia’s strategic shift from a bogged down attempt to seize Kyiv and overthrow the government to a reorientation of military force in the southern and the East. In the first days of the war, six weeks ago, it seemed possible that a Russian “blitzkrieg” could quickly storm the country and take the capital. But fierce Ukrainian resistance, backed by Western weapons, and heavy Russian casualties have caused Moscow to change its plan. However, the redeployment, which has revealed to the world a horrendous trail of atrocities, does not mean that a fierce war that Putin cannot afford to lose is far from over. In fact, it ensures that the economic, political and international forces unleashed by the conflict will last for months and will exact a higher price. Andrzej Duda – the president of Poland, a country bordering Ukraine – said in an interview with CNN on Wednesday that Putin’s objective was clear. What weapons would Ukraine need to win the war? 5:25 “The fact that civilians in the Ukraine are being killed is the best sign of what the goal of the Russian invasion is,” he told CNN’s Dana Bash through a translator. “The goal of that invasion is simply to extinguish the Ukrainian nation.” The consequences of Russia’s ruthless mission will not be limited to Europe. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, for example, warned Wednesday of the “enormous repercussions” of the invasion on world food supplies and energy supplies. This, in turn, will create a chain of political consequences in the United States and in Western capitals. In the United States, the jolt from the war on gas and grocery prices — already rising in a tide of high inflation — could have political implications, including for President Joe Biden’s Democrats in the looming midterm elections. mandate. A prolonged war will also have dire humanitarian consequences, given Putin’s strategy of razing cities and the apparent atrocities committed by his troops. While the world has reeled at images of dead civilians, some apparently executed in areas cleared by Russian troops, the horror unfolding in besieged cities to the south and east may be on an even more ruthless scale. but it will be more difficult for Ukrainians and foreign journalists to expose. This raises the prospect of impunity for some of the worst war crimes committed on the European continent, at least since the Bosnian war, and possibly since the Second World War. Putin would test NATO with a long war in Ukraine A long war would also be a grueling test of NATO’s unity, after the surprising firmness shown by the Western alliance. He would also enshrine a second protracted geopolitical joust between Moscow and the West. Putin will look for opportunities to drive new wedges between NATO partners as he looks to gain ground in the east to fuel a claim of victory at home. “The first part of the war is over and Putin has lost it, much to his chagrin,” Steve Hall, the former head of CIA Russia operations, said Wednesday on CNN. “I think we’re going to be in this for the long haul and I think it’s going to be a war of attrition. It’s going to be very tough on Ukraine.” Biden led warnings Wednesday that peace will be elusive for months. “This war could go on for a long time, but the United States will continue to stand with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people in the fight for freedom,” Biden told construction unions in Washington. Such was Zelensky’s forceful speech to the UN 0:52 His warning underscores that his entire presidency—born in a crisis, a once-in-a-century pandemic—is now likely to be defined by the West’s second major showdown with the Kremlin. The political fallout from the standoff is likely to reverberate beyond the November midterm elections and into the 2024 White House race. The fact that 63 Republican members of the House of Representatives, many of them top supporters of Donald Trump , have voted against a resolution supporting NATO this week will fuel fears that a return of the former president to the White House could fracture the alliance’s unity. Putin Still Wants “All of Ukraine” Warnings that the Ukraine war may now turn into a semi-permanent crisis looming over the West were amplified on Wednesday by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. The former Norwegian prime minister said Putin’s redeployment does not mean he has given up on his long-term goal of capturing Kyiv. “We have not seen any indication that President Putin has changed his ambition to control the whole of Ukraine and also to rewrite the international order, so we have to be prepared for the long term,” Stoltenberg said. “We have to be realistic and realize that this could go on for a long time, many months or even years.” The NATO chief was speaking ahead of a meeting in Brussels on Thursday in which the alliance’s ministers will discuss their next steps in arming Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for tanks and heavy weapons. So far, Western nations have mainly sent anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine, which have been effective in helping repel the Russian advance. But now the question is whether to send weapons that Ukraine could use to drive Russia out of the country, a decision that could drag the West further into war. Biden has already blocked a plan by Poland to send Soviet-era planes to the Ukrainian air force. “I think what NATO is doing is certainly insufficient,” retired Maj. Gen. Dana Pittard told CNN’s John King on “Inside Politics” on Wednesday. “The goal must be for the Ukrainian forces to actually win. To do that, they will need more than just tanks here, drones there and Javelin missiles. They need systems, they need training, they need help,” Pittard said. Then there are the broader questions allied leaders may grapple with about the need to further deter Putin in Eastern Europe, amid constant fears that the war could lead to a direct confrontation between the West and Russia. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called late on Wednesday for a rethink of the Western security posture. “The era of engagement with Russia is over. We need a new approach to security in Europe based on resistance, defense and deterrence,” Truss said in Brussels. Yellen warns of global economic fallout The world economy was already facing severe challenges before Putin invaded Ukraine. The pandemic severely disrupted global supply chains, helping to cause rising inflation. Now, the severe sanctions on the Russian economy are not only punishing Putin, but are also having a reaction in the countries that imposed them. First, gasoline prices soared as Russia was shut out of much of the world oil market. Biden lashed out at “Putin’s price gouging” in an effort to conjure up some political cover with voters already in a bad mood as the midterm elections approach. On Wednesday, Yellen raised the possibility of further global disruption from a protracted war in Ukraine. Tortilla price in Mexico hits record high 0:54″Russia’s actions represent an unacceptable affront to the rules-based world order, and will have enormous economic repercussions in Ukraine and beyond,” Yellen told a House of Representatives committee. Representatives. She also warned that developing countries, already facing heavy debt burdens and struggling to recover from Covid-19, could be especially vulnerable. Ultimately, however, the prospect of many more months of war – in a country divided by Putin’s brutal invasion – will test the courage, unity and resilience of the Ukrainians themselves. The barbarism brought to light in recent days could be just the beginning. For example, in Mariupol, where thousands of civilians remain trapped in a city that has been reduced to rubble after weeks of Russian bombardment. “The world has not seen the magnitude of a tragedy like the one in Mariupol since the Nazi concentration camps,” the city’s mayor, Vadym Boychenko, said in a statement. “The Russians (Russian fascists) turned our entire city into an extermination camp.” A war that drags on for months or years could condemn much of the country to the same inhuman fate.

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