Presidential: 5 days before the first round, can the campaign still switch? – Yahoo News

If the duel Emmanuel Macron – Marine Le Pen is announced by all the polls, the electoral experts do not rule out the possibility of a surprise. News item that would fold the cards, strong abstention, significant mobilization of the left for Jean-Luc Mélenchon… Several options could upset the first round. Will we witness a dramatic turn of events in the first round? If opinion studies have systematically given Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen qualified in the second round for weeks, the games are far from over, assured the president-candidate during his first meeting last weekend. While some observers consider it highly improbable that the cards will be reshuffled a few days before the deadline, other politicians do not rule out any hypothesis. Here are 4 scenarios that could still upset the forecasts. • Scenario 1: an unexpected event derailed the campaign “I’m confident … If we don’t get a Grandpa Voise by then”, confides to BFTMTV.com a pillar of the majority. The swollen face of this septuagenarian, violently attacked by two burglars, had made the front page of television news four days before the 2002 presidential election. This affair, which had become the symbol of insecurity, would have rocked the election and contributed to the accession to the second round of Jean-Marie Le Pen, yet given behind Lionel Jospin and Jacques Chirac in the polls. This excitement in the macronie camp, seen by some as an element of language to mobilize supporters of Emmanuel Macron, is shared by Gaspard Gantzer. “When you have a very tight campaign, in a very short space-time with a president who has declared himself on the deadline day and who you see very little on the ground, that makes the last days particularly decisive”, estimates the former communicator of François Hollande at the Élysée.Read more “Making a campaign of great caution, makes you at the mercy of a news item or an exploit of your opponent”, he summarizes. On the benches of the Republic on the move, we are thus following very closely the case of Jérémy Cohen, this young man of the Jewish faith crushed by a tram in Bobigny while trying to flee from attackers – certain candidates for the presidential election. wondering about a possible anti-Semitic motive, which has not yet been mentioned by the prosecution. Emmanuel Macron’s cabinet has also called his family.• Scenario 2: strong abstention causes Marine Le Pen to stumble”Emmanuel Macron has a chance. It’s because he has an electorate that is not very sensitive to abstention. So it allows him to have relative confidence in his score in the first round. But for Marine Le Pen, it is very different”, analyzes the constitutionalist Benjamin Morel. The electorate of the representative of the RN is indeed the one who has the more likely to abstain. To explain the poor results of her party in the regional elections in 2021, which only came out on top in the Sud-Paca region in the first round while the polls put it in the lead in 6 regions out of 13, the candidate herself had pointed to record abstention (66.72%). For now, however, Marine Le Pen voters are among the most decided: 84% say they are sure of their choice, compared to 79% for Eric Zemmour. or 74% for Valérie Pécresse, according to our latest Elabe poll conducted for BFMTV and L’Express with our partner SFR. • Scenario 3: Eric Zemmour is “underestimated” and creates a surprise If the boss of Reconquête is struggling in the opinion studies, (only 9% in our latest Elabe poll), we always believe in it. “When you see all the rooms filled, our TV audiences… We are underestimated in the polls , that’s for sure. And it will end up being seen”, ignited a few days ago Philippe Izraelewicz, coordinator regional nator of the campaign, with BFMTV.com.”Éric Zemmour is so far from the first round in the second round polls that I do not see them accessing it, even if his voters are overmobilized”, judges Bruno Cautrès, researcher at Cevipof. • Scenario 4: left-wing voters over-mobilize for Jean-Luc MélenchonSeeking to present himself as the “useful vote”, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has slowly but surely gained points on the left, until reaching 15.5 % in our latest Elabe survey. Enough to give hope to rebellious France, which constantly calls on its voters to vote for “a program” more than for a “personality”. “I don’t really see where its reservations are still of votes to access the second round”, tempers the political scientist Benjamin Morel. “He is already filling up on the left with the supporters of Yannick Jadot, Fabien Roussel and Anne Hidalgo at the moment T… But it is possible that these voters will finally say to themselves at the last moment that they are going to slip a ballot in the ballot box for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “While the scores of the socialist, the ecologist and the communist combined represent between 9 and 10% of the voting intentions, the news is enough to give a smile to the rebellious. Especially since the base of Yannick Jadot’s voters appears very fragile – 49% of them say they could change their minds by the first round, according to our latest Elabe poll. “Me, I wanted to return to politics in 2002 after the surprise Jean-Marie Le Pen. I believe that all people of my generation are aware that anything is possible for this second round and that we are not immune to a scenario that no one will have seen coming”, swears for his part the deputy LREM Sacha Houlié. What to give a little relief to this funny campaign. Original article published on BFMTV.com VIDEO – Frédéric Dabi (director of Ifop): “Not to vote is to leave the democratic game, to be a second-class citizen”