OPINION | A month after the start of the war, Zelensky has finished with the niceties

Zelensky at NATO: We ask for 1% of all tanks that have 0:43 Editor’s note: Michael Bociurkiw (@WorldAffairsPro) is a global affairs analyst. He is a senior member of the Atlantic Council and former spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. Lviv, Ukraine (CNN) — In a grueling war like the one in Ukraine, one learns to read the subtle shifts in the public’s mood. So it was on Thursday – a month after Russian forces invaded and just as NATO leaders were pledging continued support for Ukraine – that I saw outside the windows of my apartment on the outskirts of Lviv’s old city, construction workers in hi-vis jackets and tall yellow ladders scrambling up the magnificent stained-glass windows of the neighboring church. It’s a scene repeated in this UNESCO World Heritage-listed city, from schools to shops to government buildings. It is also a clear sign that the Ukrainians are digging in for the long haul. If Western leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday thought they had produced a hurricane of policy – including promises to bolster NATO’s defenses against chemical, biological and nuclear weapons of mass destruction – when the news reached Ukraine, it was little more than a distraction from the horror unfolding on her doorstep. Once again, Western leaders said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s use of such weapons would constitute a red line and trigger unspecified consequences. Talking to Ukrainians, I found that the overwhelming response was: “Haven’t we heard this before?” Indeed, there is an increasingly apparent shift in the tone of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appeal to the West. In a speech to the European Council summit on Thursday night in which he once again called for membership of the European Union, the wartime leader identified every country that was late or unwilling to provide assistance. to Ukraine. The targets were Ireland, Germany and Portugal, as well as Hungary for its neutral stance. The same day, after asking NATO to dedicate at least 1% of its military assets to Ukraine, Zelensky dramatically expanded his wish list of US military equipment, saying Kyiv needs 500 Javelin and 500 Stinger missiles per day. . That’s in addition to the jets, attack helicopters and advanced anti-aircraft systems already in demand. Zelensky’s relatively new strategy of publicly naming and shaming countries Kyiv believes are sitting on the diplomatic fence appears to be his way of cashing in on growing global popularity. (Some of my Ukrainian friends joke that the TV comedian-turned-politician is more popular abroad than in his own homeland.) But it is not certain whether he will push world leaders like US President Joe Biden to provide items such as planes, which could make it look like a belligerent act for Moscow. Increasingly, Ukrainians from many walks of life tell me they feel the country is running a proxy war for the West, pushing back a superpower to protect countries on NATO’s eastern flank. In various impassioned speeches before various parliaments, Zelensky has practically said the same thing. Even the West’s promised response to Putin’s use of weapons of mass destruction would depend on the situation, Biden said. That brought back memories here of his pre-war slip in January when he said the scale of sanctions in response to a Russian incursion into Ukraine would be proportional to the type of invasion (the White House quickly retracted the comment). Now, even though dozens of countries are supplying large quantities of weapons, Ukraine says its stocks are running out at a faster rate than resupply. Realizing the lack of appetite in European capitals to confront Putin directly, Kyiv is likely to step up efforts to secure microalliances with like-minded officials from former Soviet states who also fear ending up in Putin’s crosshairs. The courageous visit two weeks ago by the Polish, Czech and Slovenian Prime Ministers was a sign of this growing closeness and solidarity. Over the last month, the number of victims in Ukraine has been immense: more than 10 million people have been displaced, several thousand dead and wounded, and cities like Mariupol completely leveled. It is Mariupol that has become ground zero of the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe that has not only shocked the world, but also crossed red lines that should have been set by the West, such as the attack earlier in this month in a maternity ward that killed a pregnant mother and her unborn child. Death of a pregnant woman shows the cruelty of war 1:39The red lines must be based on international humanitarian law that no belligerent must cross. That includes deliberately targeting non-military sites such as schools, kindergartens, hospitals, water treatment plants, and fields used for agriculture. These violations should be considered war crimes and treated as such. Beaten almost beyond recognition, the southern port city of Mariupol has become the site of the war’s most horrific images. At the gates of Europe, people in the besieged city report scenes resembling “hell on earth”: killing stray dogs for food, melting snow for water to drink, and digging mass graves to accommodate the mass of corpses. Some 300 people are believed to have been killed in a Russian attack on the Mariupol Theater nine days ago, where Ukrainian authorities say as many as 1,300 had sought refuge. Painted on the ground outside the building, in giant Russian letters, was the word “CHILDREN.” A month after the invasion, the road ahead is likely to be just as bloody. In the worst case scenario, the Russian side, seeking regime change in Kyiv and more territory, could choose to maintain a simmering conflict just as it has in occupied Donbas by using Russian-backed rebels (not are separatists). Successive eight-year peace talks failed to achieve a lasting ceasefire. Seeking to avoid more humiliating losses on the battlefield (by some estimates, the number of Russian soldiers killed is 15,000), Russian commanders will likely switch to using longer-range missiles and even hypersonic missiles to hit Ukrainian cities and strategic targets such as airfields and ammunition storage depots. The Russians have already used long-range missiles in western Ukraine, where there is no physical presence. And in the past eight years, cities and towns in and around the Donbas region, including Mariupol in 2015, have been hit by Russian unguided projectiles. Furthermore, bombings that cause civilians to flee fit well into the Russian playbook of armed migration. The introduction of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons of mass destruction cannot be ruled out. In the coming days and weeks, Ukrainians will watch nervously as their president begins high-level peace negotiations with Russia proposed by Zelensky. It can be safely assumed that the Kremlin, in the final phase of the negotiations, will demand concessions that no Ukrainian president could ever agree to: give up the territory seized by Russia, formally recognize the occupied Donbass and Crimea as part of the Russian Federation, for example, and forgo membership offers for alliances like NATO. Although Zelensky and his ambassador to the UK have floated the idea of ​​NATO neutrality for Ukraine, it is unclear whether it would generate broad popular support. To take on Putin at the negotiating table, the comedian-turned-politician who morphed into a wartime president literally overnight will need extraordinary skill and dexterity. With so much bloodshed, wanton destruction and large-scale displacement, the Ukrainians will not be in the mood to give Zelensky much room for concessions. And even if they did, the Russians have a deserved reputation for not keeping their promises. So, with so much at stake, what is the West to do? Meeting Kyiv’s requests for more weaponry and assets, such as sophisticated surface-to-air missiles — including more US-made kamikaze drones — should be a no-brainer. The concept of a no-fly zone imposed by NATO planes is a failure, but if the Russians step up their aggression by targeting Lviv, for example, that should trigger urgent discussions in NATO about protecting Ukrainian skies by technological means. . At the end of the day, the West has the option now to intervene in the Ukraine war in a revolutionary way by eliminating Russian advantages in the air, cutting off supply lines and continuing to squeeze the Russian economy. Better to act now on the West’s own terms, and avoid the destruction of the Ukrainian nation, or be forced to do so later on Putin’s terms after thousands of innocent Ukrainian men, women and children have been massacred. What Ukrainian refugees take with them as they flee war 1:59