Races: “A very sharp rise in prices in the coming weeks, as never seen for 14 years” – Le Télégramme

Le Télégramme: Which products have increased the most in one year?Lionel Maugain: According to a study by the NielsenIQ Institute, it is the price of pasta (both dry and fresh) that has increased the most at the moment: +11.4% on average. But for the first prices, it goes up to + 42%! Cereal and oilseed products are also on the rise. This is the case for oils (sunflower, rapeseed, palm, etc.): +2.6% on average, but +11% for entry prices. This is a significant increase for this type of product. Finally, in number 3, there is coffee, with +12% on the first prices. In addition, we have produced a control basket with 31 basic necessities as part of our “Inflation Observatory”: compared to February 2021, the basket costs 2.4% more than in 2022. is a rather brutal increase compared to February.Lionel Maugain, journalist with the magazine 60 Millions of consumers. (Lionel Maugain/Document submitted) So it is the most precarious people who are the most impacted? To date, yes, because it is the entry-level products that are increasing the most. When we say that first-price pasta has increased by 40%, that’s an average: in some stores, it’s +60%. And it will continue: the average is expected to reach this higher range. This will also extend to other ranges – distributor brands and manufacturer brands – to an extent that we do not know today. How can such increases be explained? For pasta, there were harvesting problems, particularly in Canada. For coffee, like other products, it is linked to climate change: a late frost wave destroyed part of the harvest. We also have a worldwide demand that is increasingly high. Thirdly, there is the rise in energy prices. We only feel the beginning of the effects: they will increase in the coming months and impact all the other prices. Finally, we will have to add to all this the consequences of the war in Ukraine, in particular on the price of cereals. This will also have repercussions on many products. What makes you say that these increases are only just beginning? They are only in their infancy! Contrary to what we thought, for five years, prices have stagnated in supermarkets. This inflation is therefore really new. It will be very significant, unheard of compared to everything we experienced until the previous crisis, in 2008. Some time ago, we were told a 3-4% increase; it’s going to be more than that. Especially since the negotiations between the large distribution and the producers have been reopened. But how far will it go? We can’t estimate it. The only thing we can say is that we are going to have very, very sharp increases in the prices of mass consumption goods, particularly those based on cereals (such as meat or flour), dairy products, on sugar… The rise in raw material prices will have a snowball effect on the rest. With the rise in production costs, can we fear a reduction in the number of promotions in stores? There will always be promotions: it’s business and manufacturers and distributors will do everything to hide this period of inflation on their prices. On the other hand, it will be necessary to pay attention to “hidden inflation”: on more than 10% of the goods that we inspected, the product on promotion came out more expensive with the promotion than without. And it’s a safe bet that this way of doing things will multiply: they will reduce the quantities of the product, change the recipe of a product by using less noble ingredients to conceal the increase… Moreover, we could have delistings : the distributor could decide to withdraw certain brands from the shelves because he considers that the increase is too high for his brand and his customers. It’s not a shortage, because here, it’s voluntary. Since prices will increase even more in the coming weeks, should we stock up today? It pains me to say that, but yes. The savvy consumer can take advantage of attractive promotions on consumer products, such as toilet paper, to stock up. Three packets for the price of two, the second at half price… Do not hesitate: there, the distributors are liquidating the stocks. On the next delivery, the same products will be much more expensive.