War in Ukraine: India trapped by its proximity to Russia

Preserving its economic interests, India, a historic ally of Russia, still refuses to condemn the invasion of Ukraine. A month after the start of the war, the country finds itself at odds, torn between growing Western pressure, particularly from the United States, a strategic partner in the Pacific, and the fear of seeing Moscow get closer to its enemies, China and Pakistan. For the past month, the war in Ukraine has dominated diplomatic agendas. United States, European Union, Japan… Every day brings its share of sanctions and new convictions against Russia. In this diplomatic ballet, however, India seems determined to remain in the background and avoid the subject at all costs. Last example to date: during a bilateral summit organized between India and Australia on Monday March 21, the Prime Australian Minister Scott Morrison opened the meeting by referring to “the very disturbing backdrop of war in Europe” and denouncing “Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine”. Narendra Modi, for his part, confined himself to considerations relating to trade, technologies or even cricket, without ever mentioning the Ukrainian file. India also abstained during the five votes organized at the UN aimed at condemn Moscow’s attitude, particularly in the context of a Human Rights Council resolution demanding an independent investigation into the violations committed by Russia in Ukraine. Thus, if the war in Ukraine has brought certain countries like the Germany to upset their diplomatic and defense policies, India seems to want to maintain its course at all costs by sparing its Western partners as well as its Russian ally. With the conflict getting bogged down, its position could quickly become untenable. to officially align with the United States or the USSR. Today, this movement still strives to maintain this posture. For India, this means not turning away from any country but also not engaging in any military alliance or interfering in foreign conflicts. Since the end of the Cold War, New Delhi has maintained close trade relations with Russia. But that hasn’t stopped him from getting closer to the United States too in recent years. invasion of Ukraine, all countries – with the exception of China – are members of the NAM.”We are facing one of the most serious cases of aggression by a country since the end of the Second World War “, denounces to France 24 Michael Kugelman, expert on South Asia at the Wilson Center, in the United States. “Why did some thirty countries refuse to condemn the Russian invasion? The answer is simple: because it was not in their interest to vote in favor of this resolution. In the end, it is the interests, and not morality, which guides foreign policy decisions.”Oil and armsRetreating during the first days of the Russian invasion, New Delhi took a further step on March 9. As Western economic sanctions began to be felt in Moscow, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced to several media that Russia had made an “open offer” to India for the sale of crude oil. at a reduced price. An attractive offer which ended, ten days later, with the purchase of 5 million barrels of crude oil at a knockdown price. The transaction was made in rupees converted into rubles to circumvent Western sanctions. But it is above all in the field of defense that India is dependent on Russia. “Moscow is historically New Delhi’s leading arms supplier, with whom it also conducts numerous technology exchanges”, explains to France 24 Avinash Paliwal, professor of international relations at the School of Oriental and African Studies (Soas) from the University of London. And to insist: “The Indian armed forces are mainly equipped with Russian armaments.” Russia is the first arms exporter in the world after the United States: it represents nearly 20% of world exports between 2017 and 2021 According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). And India alone receives 28% of these Russian exports. And if, for several years, India has been trying to diversify its supply, turning in particular to France, Israel and the United States, it remains highly dependent on Moscow. In total, according to data collected by the American NGO Stimson, around 85% of India’s current arsenal thus comes from the former Soviet Union or Russia. “Russia provides arms at favorable prices. Take for example the S-400 missile defense system which New Delhi considers essential for its national security. No other country is willing to come up with a better deal,” says Michael Kugelman. India is currently facing a double threat, that of China and that of Pakistan”, continues the specialist. “It therefore has a strong demand for military equipment to deter Beijing and cannot afford to refuse Russian imports.” Especially since the war in Ukraine has given rise to new concerns, that of seeing Moscow, reinforced in Afghanistan since the takeover by the Taliban in August 2021, strengthen its ties with Pakistan. On February 24, the first day of the invasion of Ukraine, the Pakistani Prime Minister was also visiting the Kremlin. And while the condemnations of the international community followed one another before the vision of Russian troops crossing the border, Imran Khan assured that it was “exciting” to be in the Russian capital. India also fears that Russia, isolated because of the economic sanctions, does not get closer to its Chinese enemy. “Seeing an important ally, Russia, become economically and diplomatically dependent on an adversary – China – is not to New Delhi’s advantage”, analyzes Avinash Paliwal. “With the war in Ukraine, Sino-Russian ties have taken a new turn, and this is to China’s benefit.”Losing an ally in the Indo-PacificIf India is militarily dependent on Russia in its fight against the threat Chinese, it is also this which had pushed her to get closer to the United States and to become a member of the informal alliance of the Quad. This group, which also includes Australia, Japan and the United States, focuses on the Indo-Pacific region and aims to be a counterweight to Beijing. And if the war in Ukraine risks throwing Moscow into the arms from Beijing, it also risks distracting the United States from the Indo-Pacific theater, according to Michael Kugelman. “It could make Washington downgrade the Chinese threat and focus on Europe. India doesn’t want that,” he says. To date, India is the only member of the Quad that doesn’t did not condemn the Russian invasion. The four countries “have very different points of view on the Russian question and this is one of the rare political disagreements within the group”, he specifies. By maintaining its relations with Russia, New Delhi thus risks to offend its American ally. “History will remember which side India is on in this war,” warned Jen Psaki, White House spokeswoman, after the announcement of the purchase of barrels of oil. mediator? For Michael Kugelman, India could get out of this diplomatic trap by adopting the path of mediation. “I think India is well placed to play the role of negotiator. None of the other countries that have offered to mediate – Israel, France or Turkey – have the kind of deep relationship that New Delhi has with Moscow.” “India is sensitive to criticism that it does not weigh heavily enough on the international scene. If it agrees to play the role of mediator, and can help end the war, it would show his ability to do important and meaningful things in the world.” But there again, taking on this role of mediator would mean deviating from its policy of non-alignment and non-interference in foreign conflicts. .