Ukraine-Russia, Biden in Brussels: today the EU and NATO Council

The President of the United States of America Joe Biden guest today at the European Council in Brussels at the end of the NATO summit and the meeting of G7 leaders. It has already been in the city yesterday: rue Ducale, the street on which the US embassy faces, is blocked by the Belgian police with the horses of Friesland. It is the first time ever that an American president physically participates in a European Council in the Belgian capital. But, if he pushes for Europe to hit Russia with energy sanctions, the democratic president will not find the ground level. The European heads of state and government await him for a discussion that a senior official goes so far as to define “frank”, however specifying that the “solid unity” between the two sides of the Atlantic in the face of the aggression of Russia will be emphasized. ‘Ukraine. Read also Others are horrified by hearing the adjective ‘frank’ associated with an exchange between the president of the United States of America and the heads of state and government of the EU, in the midst of a war of aggression by Russia against Ukraine, and they lean towards for less blunt words. It will be an open discussion, since a “frank” discussion, in diplomatic language, is equivalent to saying that you agree to disagree. NEW EU SANCTIONS, BAN ON RUSSIAN OIL ON THE TABLE – It will not happen tomorrow between Biden and the EU leaders. But, beyond the adjectives, it is almost certain that, if there is a new EU sanctions package, it will not affect energy. Not now, at least. The Union, explains a senior EU official, “is a reality with several member states, which have different visions” and it could be useful for the president of the United States to listen to the “different positions” of the leaders. The EU will insist on continuing with an international “strong coordination” on the sanctions to be adopted against Russia, taking into account the fact that the United States “is less energy dependent” on Russia than the EU is. The possibility of a freeze on oil imports from Russia “is on the table”, but “in function of the different interests of the member states”, which are not united on this issue. So, not now, but when eventually we decide to touch energy. Some countries, like the Baltics, are pushing for this to happen, but the capitals do not agree. It could not be otherwise, given the enormous difference in the energy mixes, and also in the production structures, of the 27: Hungary has explicitly said that it is against it, but it is not alone, even if others are less explicit. In any case, the senior official added, cooperation on sanctions with the US on sanctions has been “excellent”. FROM THE G7 NEW MEASURES AGAINST MOSCOW – If there is a new package of sanctions, the decision will emerge from the G7 meeting, which will be held in Evere, at the NATO headquarters, after the summit of the Atlantic Alliance, and before the European Council. It could include an expansion of the sanctioned subjects, perhaps a ban on the landing of Russian-flagged ships in EU ports, perhaps an extension of the ban on exports already approved, and a closure of the ‘loopholes’ of previous packages. But not energy, because some countries are determined to punish the aggressor of Ukraine, but possibly without killing their production system, already severely tested by the pandemic. And therefore, the wording contained in the draft conclusions (the EU “remains ready” to adopt new sanctions) should remain unchanged. If the desire to adopt new sanctions emerges from the G7, the Commission, as happened after the Versailles summit, will prepare the proposal, which will be examined by Coreper and then adopted by written procedure, probably the following Monday. Vladimir Putin, who announced that Europeans will have to pay for gas in rubles (and therefore will have to buy Russian currency in large quantities, supporting the exchange), does not seem to make much of an impression in Brussels for now: “A contract is a contract – observes a European diplomat – we will see what the practical consequences will be: for now we can only take note of “what Putin has said. With President Biden, the 27 will talk about the progress of the war in Ukraine and also about the” international dimension ” how to increase the pressure on Moscow to put an end to the aggression against Kiev. There is no lineup for the intervention of the US president, so the debate could focus on various issues, but it is already known that not all 27 leaders should intervene: the Council will give priority to heads of state and government who do not had the opportunity to exchange ideas with Biden in previous summits (NATO and G7). Surely, explains a senior EU official, the debate in attendance will also allow to address delicate issues such as the risks inherent in the conflict in Ukraine, of which the protagonist is the Russia, which is a nuclear power and which does not act according to the rules of international law, but on the basis of a geopolitical logic of power. FOCUS ON CHINA – It is likely that the role of China will also be discussed with the US president, which is in any case on the table of 27 in view of the next EU-China summit on 1 April, in which Prime Minister Li Keqiang should take part in Beijing. Relations between the EU and China could change if it were to emerge clearly that Beijing is with Moscow on the aggression against Ukraine. China, not alone, abstained on the condemnation resolution passed by the UN general assembly and Europe will now try to have greater clarity on the line of abstentions. ENERGY, DIVIDED LEADERS – The leaders will also talk about the situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina, a key country in the Western Balkans, also to convey the message that that area is not forgotten because it has been overtaken by the current war in Ukraine. The next day, Friday, the highlight will be the discussion on energy. It is an issue on which Member States are naturally divided, not because they are split, but more simply because they have different energy mixes, different production structures and different histories. On how to deal with the surge in gas prices, there are different lines, but, as happened with the Covid-19 pandemic, the positions seem to be heading towards a slow convergence: each country has its own public opinion and it takes time to ‘digest’ certain positions in countries that are loyal to the logic of the free market and are struggling to accept the fact that the war economy works with other logics. Meanwhile, the Commission has announced that it will create a task force for joint purchases of gas, to put the bargaining power of the 27 in front of the sellers, as happened with the anti-Covid vaccines. In addition, it presented a legislative proposal that will oblige those who have gas storage facilities to fill them at least to 80% by November 1, 2022 (to 90% in subsequent years). PRICE OF GAS AND ELECTRICITY – On the decoupling of the price of gas, now very high, from that of electricity, there is more caution, also because any intervention can have unwanted and unexpected effects. Therefore, in all likelihood, leaders will wait for ACER, the agency that brings together EU energy regulators, to present its technical report in April, to then discuss it in the European Council in May. now skyrocketing, some countries lean towards national solutions, others towards European solutions. Because, if national solutions prevail, then the divergence between the Member States is accentuated, since those who have budget space can help their citizens and their businesses, while those who do not have it cannot. already been used successfully during the pandemic, and which led to Next Generation Eu. It has its own intrinsic strength, but it takes time to make its way. The discussion on energy, which EU diplomatic sources predict as “lively” and “not easy”, could also end without conclusions, as happened in the last European Council, because it is better not to have conclusions than to have bad conclusions. The Eurosummit, which is usually held in March, has been postponed to a later Euchus due to lack of time. by order of the Kremlin, they are large producers of cereals and other basic foodstuffs. This is an issue that is destined to gain importance if the war lasts for a long time. Because, if Europe risks substantially higher prices, the consequences for the countries of North Africa, large importers of cereals, could be quite different. With all that it follows, even for countries bordering the Mediterranean such as Italy.