The battle of the Ukrainian sky does not necessarily pass through a “no-fly zone”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday called on the United States to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. It is not the first time that he has called on the West to obstruct Russia’s war by targeting the air force. But Washington always refused. And there are less drastic ways to win the air war. He asks for it at every opportunity and in every tone. After having challenged NATO on the question, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, reiterated his request to the Western powers to establish a “no-fly zone” above Ukraine during his speech before the Congress of States. -Unis, Wednesday, March 16. And Washington has, again, addressed an end of inadmissibility. For US President Joe Biden, the establishment of a no-fly zone – which would prevent Russian planes from using Ukrainian airspace to support the invasion of the country – seems to be the red line to be avoided. not cross. Imposing such a measure must come from the United Nations Security Council, otherwise it is considered an “act of war”, according to the UN charter. Risk of World War III Volodymyr Zelensky’s insistence is understandable. “A no-fly zone would be the best option to protect civilian populations, especially now that the Russians are starting to run out of guided missiles,” said Jeff Hawn, a specialist in Russian military issues at the London School of Economics, contacted by France 24. Indeed, Russian planes will have to arm themselves with “unguided” bombs, which are much more likely to cause collateral damage among civilian populations. But the West’s refusal to satisfy the Ukrainian president on this point is not surprising either. “It’s geopolitically impossible for Joe Biden. Such a ‘no-fly zone’ would mean that NATO fighters would be allowed to destroy Russian planes to enforce the exclusion zone, while the Russians would be tempted to destroy them. to aim to protect their aviation. It would be the door open to the third world war”, summarizes Jeff Hawn.There would therefore be nothing to do to prevent “the Russians transforming the Ukrainian sky into a tool of death for thousands of civilians “, as Volodymyr Zelenski declared before North American elected officials? In the era of ultra-sophisticated radars, satellite images and other anti-aircraft defense systems, such as the Israeli Iron Dome, the no-fly is no longer the only solution to control the skies in times of war. In the case of the war in Ukraine, “Western countries must already share their satellite images or radar data with kyiv”, estimates Gustav Gressel, specialist in military issues. Russian ires to the European Council on International Relations, contacted by France 24. “As the Ukrainian radars were probably destroyed by the Russians at the start of the offensive, the Western countries which have very long-range radars can provide the ukrainian army a picture from the sky [en temps réel] which warns when a Russian missile is approaching, in order to better use the defense devices”, adds Frank Ledwidge, specialist in air warfare issues at the University of Portsmouth, contacted by France 24. rangeBut it is far from offering the same protection as a stricto sensu no-fly zone, if only because “the data shared is probably not the most precise that Washington could provide”, believes Gustav Gressel. For the expert, the United States fears that Russia intercepts communications and the Pentagon has no desire for Moscow to discover the sources of their most precise satellite images. Especially the information provided by radars, as complete as it is – it, is not enough to prevent the bombs from falling from the sky. “We must provide the Ukrainians with all the tools to protect their airspace”, underlines Jeff Hawn. “Necessary equipment and which the United States has already comm What we need to deliver is the ammunition to arm the Ukrainian fighters who continue to challenge the Russian air force for air superiority and to be able to continue to use the anti-aircraft missiles”, affirms Gustav Gressel. The Ukrainians also need much more of these surface-to-air missiles. For the moment, “they have mainly received American Stingers or British Starstreaks, missiles which are very effective at short range”, notes Frank Ledwidge. “We need more defense devices that can reach aircraft at high altitudes [au-dessus de 4 000 mètres], from where the Russian fighter bombers can drop their bombs”, specifies Gustav Gressel. continues the specialist of the European Council for International Relations. The Ukrainians already have it and already know how to use it. “It is also a mobile device that is easy to hide against Russian air strikes and can be quickly deployed according to the needs”, enumerates Jeff Hawn. But it is not the Americans who will deliver Soviet weapons to the Ukrainians. At least not directly. these Cold War weapons”, explains Frank Ledwidge. Poland, Slovakia or even Hungary could quickly supply them to Ukraine. Helping Ukrainians to defend themselves The West could do even more s. Some media have mentioned, across the Atlantic, the possibility of providing the Ukrainians with more elaborate anti-aircraft defense systems such as the American Patriot system. But in this case, the best would be the enemy of the good here, according to the various experts interviewed by France 24. “These are complex systems to handle, which are, moreover, not mobile and would be easy to target for the Russian bombings”, underlines Gustav Gressel. All these efforts will not completely prevent “Russian planes from flying in Ukrainian airspace”, recognizes Jeff Hawn. In this sense, the “no-fly zone” would be a more effective solution. But they have several advantages over the no-fly zone. First, by supplying arms to the Ukrainians, “the West provides them with what better to defend themselves against the Russian threat. It is important for this war, but also to be better equipped in the future”, says Jeff Hawn. And then, above all, “this aid is much less likely to trigger a third world war”, concludes this expert. It’s not nothing.