How will the war develop in Ukraine? THIS are possible scenarios! The fighting can last for years, Putin underestimated the population – Topky.sk

They are therefore preparing for the possibility of a Ukrainian government in exile in Poland and the conflict moving into a phase of long and bloody insurgent struggles, The Washington Post (WP) wrote, referring to statements by Western government sources and experts. If the United States and other Western countries decided to support the Ukrainians in the insurgent fighting against the Russian occupying army, the key figure would probably be Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

According to the WP, he has already discussed with the Americans the possibility of moving his government from Kiev, on which the Russian offensive will now focus, to Lviv in the west of the country, which is closer to the Polish border. It is in Poland that the Ukrainian government in exile could probably settle. However, Zelensky and other constitutional officials are not, according to their statements, currently planning to leave the capital and want to continue the fighting.

“We can only say that Ukraine is preparing to defend Kiev as purposefully as Russia is preparing to attack Kiev,” said WP Deputy Chancellor of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podoljak. Many lawmakers remain in the Ukrainian capital. However, Western officials are already preparing for a situation where Kiev would fall and Russia would occupy the whole of Ukraine. For example, there is a discussion that the UN General Assembly resolution in support of Ukraine, adopted this week, could serve as a basis for international recognition of the Green Government in exile after the Russians set up their own puppet cabinet in Kiev.

NATO attack

The question remains how the West could support the insurgent struggles against the Russian occupying forces without getting into a direct dispute with Moscow. In the eyes of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the support of the exiled Ukrainian government in Poland could represent a NATO attack on Russia. However, Western officials agree that the Ukrainians are unlikely to stop fighting the Russian army even if Moscow manages to take control of the country.

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Vladimir Putin
Source: SITA / Yuri Kochetkov / Pool Photo via AP, File

Mask “Grossly underestimated the capabilities of the Ukrainian resistance,” said the WP, an unnamed Western intelligence official, that the fighting could last for months or years. According to former US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) official Jack Devin, the basis for successful defiance of a stronger occupying force is whether the country’s people want to fight.

So far, the Ukrainians are proving it safely. So far, Putin’s intentions in Ukraine and what he will be able to accept as final remain largely unknown. The possibility of being “satisfied” with the part of the country east of the Dnieper that he would either join Russia or recognize its independence, as he did in the Luhansk and Donbask regions, is often mentioned.

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However, according to Rita Konaev of Georgetown University, it is very unlikely that Moscow will be able to keep these territories under control due to the anger of the local population, which it caused by its invasion and shelling of civilian objects. “The Kremlin can try to implement its strategy. But I think we always forget a small obstacle in our strategic calculations, and that is the will of the people. Putin has forgotten how to be elected democratically.” she said.