Why did Russia finally invade Ukraine?

(CNN Spanish) — After months of tension and escalation between Russia and Ukraine, with more than 150,000 soldiersequipped with armored vehicles deployed on the border, and reports of exchanges of fire between Ukrainians and pro-Russian rebels in the Donbas region, Moscow finally invaded: it announced on Thursday the start of special military operations in Ukraine.

On Monday Vladimir Putin, Russian President, had recognized the separatist territories in Ukraine – Donetsk and Lugansk, controlled by pro-Russian rebels since 2014 – and announced the sending of soldiers to Donbas, further fueling tensions.

But why did Russia decide to invade Ukraine?

The situation has political, historical and strategic edges. This is a look at each of them.

The tense history between Ukraine and Russia

The history of Ukraine and Russia is intertwined and goes back at least to the middle ages, in the context of the Kievan Rus, an East Slavic state. But both evolved separately, each having a language and culture, starting from a common root.

Beginning in the 17th century, large portions of the Ukraine became part of the growing Russian Empire. While in the 20th century, with the exception of a brief period of independence in 1917, Ukraine was incorporated into the Soviet Union.

Lasting independence finally came in 1991, after the dissolution of the USSR, and from then on, Ukraine looked to Europe and its interest in belonging to NATO, the US-led military alliance that had clashed during the war. Cold to the Warsaw Pact, led by the USSR.

Meanwhile, many in Moscow see Ukraine’s history as still intertwined with Russia.

In July 2021, Putin himself said, in a long essay, that Russians and Ukrainians were “one people”, in a test. He also pointed out that the West had corrupted Ukraine and had taken it out of Russia’s orbit through a “forced change of identity”.

Crimea and Donbas, centers of the crisis

In 2013 a historic political and commercial agreement between Ukraine and the European Union strained relations with Russia. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych suspended negotiations — apparently under pressure from Moscow — and violent protests erupted for weeks in Kyiv.

The escalation culminated in the most direct antecedent of the current crisis: the annexation of crimeaa peninsula that is part of the Ukraine that became independent in 1991, by Russia in 2014. To justify this, Russia claimed that it was defending its interests and those of Russian-speaking citizens in Crimea, a region with strong loyalties to Russia.

Months later, pro-Russian rebels rose up in the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine, sparking a civil war in the region that continues to this day and pits the Ukrainian government against the self-proclaimed Russian-backed people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, which on Monday recognized their independence eight years later.

The expansion of NATO after the fall of the USSR

Moscow insists that it is not seeking a war and that the responsibility for the crisis rests with NATO, although the United States and its allies have said that the authorship of the crisis belongs to Russia.

“They have blatantly deceived us. Five waves of NATO expansion. And there it is: now they are in Romania and Poland, with weapons systems,” said Putin in December, assuring that Russia “does not want military action.” “We ask directly that there be no further moves by NATO to the east. The ball is in their court.”

Former Warsaw Pact members Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania and Albania entered in NATO between the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st. While East Germany also became part of the alliance after reunification in 1990.

On the other hand, the Baltic countries Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, independent from the USSR in 1991, joined NATO in 2004.

Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, said at the end of January, countries have “the right to choose their own security arrangements”, referring to NATO membership in recent years, and that “Russia must refrain from adopting positions based on coercive force, aggressive rhetoric “.

What do Russia and NATO accuse each other of?

Putin accuses NATO of violating the Founding Act of Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and Russiasigned in 1997 as a reference framework between both parties after the fall of the USSR, by deploying “systems weapons offensives on the borders of Russia,” specifically in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.

On the other hand, NATO points out that it has complied with the Founding Act, committing itself not to deploy permanent military forces in the new members without nuclear weapons, two of the pillars of the agreement, and instead accuses Mocú of non-compliance.

The 4,500 soldiers deployed in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland are “rotating and defensive forces”, according to the NATOand arrived as a reaction to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.

“By signing the NATO-Russia Founding Act, Russia undertook not to threaten or use force against NATO Allies or against any other State. It has broken this commitment, with the illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea, territory of a State sovereign. Russia also continues to support militants in eastern Ukraine,” express the Alliance in an official statement.

Political changes in Ukraine

After gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine has had strained relations with Russia, which began to worsen in the early 2000s.

In 2004 the candidate and former prime minister Viktor Yanukovych, supported by Russia, prevailed over the opposition Viktor Yushchenko -pro-Western- and he won the presidential election amid accusations of fraud.

A wave of demonstrations advanced throughout the country. The so-called “Orange Revolution”, because of the color used by the protesters and that of Yushchenko’s campaign, shook the country, and the Supreme Court ordered repeat elections, in which this time Yushchenko won.

Yanukovych was finally elected president in 2010 -Yushchenko obtained only 5% of the vote-, and in 2013 he abandoned plans to carry out Ukraine to the European Union under pressure from Russia, after which he began a new wave of protests.

In February 2014 the Parliament of Ukraine voted to remove Yanukovych from the presidency, and acting president Oleksandr Turchynov took over. Soon after, Russia annexed Crimea and the conflict in Donbas began.

Petro Poroshenko was elected president in 2014 and ruled until 2019, when he took over the acurrent president Volodymyr Zelensky. Both are considered pro-Western and anti-Moscow.

In this context, a regime change in Ukraine is seen as one of the potential Kremlin targets.

With information from Luke McGee, Anna Chernova, Zachary B. Wolf, and Eliza Mackintosh.