War in Ukraine: the Donbass, Vladimir Putin’s strategic lever

On Monday February 21, Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of the two pro-Russian separatist provinces in eastern Ukraine, the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. The decision taken by the Russian president buried the Minsk agreements which, since 2015, had tried to end the conflict in the Donbass and aimed precisely at reintegrating these territories under Ukrainian control. Above all, it opened the door to a Russian military deployment in these regions and to a military offensive, which was confirmed on Thursday 24 February.

The vagueness remains however on a crucial question: the borders in which Moscow recognizes the two separatist entities. Do they concern the area controlled by the separatists – i.e. a third of the region – or all of Donbass, including, therefore, the areas controlled by Kiev? According to Mr Putin, these are the borders inscribed in the “Constitutions” of the two self-proclaimed republics, that is to say the entire administrative regions (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk, i.e. a territory three times larger larger than the one they currently control.

“Keep Up the Pressure” Russian

In the text ratified by the Duma, the lower house of the Russian Parliament, the perimeter is however more restricted: it is about the “existing” borders of the two republics, which stop at the front line. “But who says that tomorrow there won’t be another text? We do not know Putin’s intentions. For him, it’s a way to keep the pressure on.” explains political scientist Alexandra Goujon, author of Ukraine, from independence to war (The Blue Rider, 2021). ” Russia, she continuescould take any pretext to advance behind the line of contact”, in the area controlled by the Ukrainian government, forcing Kiev to retaliate.

The conflict in the Donbass, a mining, industrial and Russian-speaking basin located on the border with Russia, broke out in 2014, after the pro-European Maidan revolution. At the time, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych betrayed his promise to sign an association agreement with the European Union, triggering protests for several months.

The revolution, then the dismissal of the Head of State, in February 2014are then particularly badly lived in the Donbass, where the deposed president had been governor in Donetsk, between 1997 and 2002. “There is a kind of scepticism, even aversion towards Maidan. Yanukovych is seen as the victim of a nationalist revolution, even though he got rich on the backs of Donbass,” resumes the researcher.

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