Six questions to understand the Russian offensive in Ukraine – BFMTV

The events of recent hours on Ukrainian territory are the culmination of several months of tension between the two countries.

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are not new. For nearly ten years now, the two nations from the former Soviet bloc have been waging a war of positions punctuated by diplomatic provocations. In 2014, Moscow invaded Crimea, a region in southern Ukraine which will later be attached to Russia after a referendum whose results have not been recognized internationally.

A few weeks later, the Donbass war began, in which pro-Russian separatists clashed with the Ukrainian army, against the backdrop of the fantasy of seceding from Kiev and joining Russia. After several years of stagnation in the region, where trench warfare has taken hold, events have accelerated in recent weeks.

• Why did Russia attack Ukraine?

At the end of 2021, Vladimir Putin had decided to put pressure on his Ukrainian neighbor by moving several hundred thousand of his soldiers to its border. According to Moscow, these maneuvers were necessary to ensure Russian security, Vladimir Putin believing that Ukraine had the objective of joining NATO.

Monday, when the tension had risen still further, Vladimir Putin had planted his first bandilla and announced, during a televised speech in which he had described Ukraine as a “puppet” country, to support the independence of the two Donbass republics, Donetsk and Lugansk.

To everyone’s surprise and despite the sanctions announced in the meantime by the West, the Russian president announced on the night of Wednesday to Thursday the launch of a “military operation” in Ukraine to defend these separatist regions in the east of the country.

“I made the decision for a military operation,” he said in a surprise statement on television shortly before 4 a.m. (French time).

• What military forces are involved?

It is still difficult to estimate the number of soldiers involved in the operations. However, the balance of power already seems more than unbalanced in favor of Russia, the second armed power in the world.

First of all for geographical reasons. By its kilometers of borders, but also those of its Belarusian ally, Russia can surround its Ukrainian opponent. To the west, in Transnistria, the Russian army has also placed troops in the small Russian-speaking enclave in Moldova, whose independence is only recognized by the Kremlin. To the south, on the Black Sea, the Russians have the advantage over the water.

As for the troops, there would be nearly 190,000 men on the Russian side gathered at the borders of Ukraine and ready to intervene, from Russia, Belarus but also in Crimea.

On the Ukrainian side, the army is significantly larger in number, but with much less modern equipment. The arming of President Zelensky’s men dates in part from the end of the Cold War, when the country was still part of the Soviet Union.

Further west, the United States also has military forces present in NATO allied countries, including 9,200 in Poland, 34,300 in Germany and 1,900 in Romania.

• What is France’s position?

After having played the intermediary with Vladimir Putin in recent weeks and tried to avoid the escalation of the crisis, Emmanuel Macron now has no other choice but to abandon the diplomatic track.

The Head of State promised this Thursday, during an address to the Nation, that France and its allies will decide on sanctions “without weakness” against Russia, both “on the military and economic level as much as in the field of energy”.

“The events of this night are a turning point in the history of Europe and our country. They will have lasting, profound consequences on our lives” and “on the geopolitics of our continent”, warned the French president with gravity. , following an emergency Defense Council meeting. “We will support Ukraine without hesitation, and we will take all our responsibilities to protect the sovereignty and security of our European allies,” he added.

The Elysée pointed out that the “military” measures mentioned by the Head of State meant the sending of additional troops to Romania under the aegis of NATO, which will be the subject of discussions at a summit in NATO on Friday.

• What can Westerners do?

If international condemnations are unanimous in the face of the Russian offensive, the room for maneuver of Western countries remains relatively limited.

“Our room for maneuver is quite narrow. We can only be indignant for the moment, because Joe Biden said that it was out of the question to send American soldiers on Ukrainian soil”, explained on the set of BFMTV Patrick Martin-Grenier, teacher at Sciences Po and specialist in European and international issues.

If in fact the military solution seems excluded, Poland, a member of NATO and which shares its eastern border with Ukraine, has nevertheless announced that it is asking for the activation of article 4 of the NATO treaty. , which provides for consultations in the event of a threat to the security of one of the parties.

On the subject of economic sanctions, the G7, which includes France, but also the United States and the United Kingdom, is also due to meet this Thursday, as is the European Council, which brings together the various heads of States of the European Union.

On the table will appear in particular the exclusion of Russia from the Swift financial system, qualified as a “nuclear weapon” because of the consequences it would have on the Russian economy.

• What consequences in France?

Inevitably, the tensions between the two countries will have an impact on the daily lives of the French. This Thursday, the invasion of Ukraine propelled the barrel to more than 100 dollars, Russia being one of the world’s leading producers of gas and oil, panicking investors over possible disruptions in energy supplies .

“Moscow’s intentions to launch a military attack on its neighbor had been announced in recent weeks,” which, “amid wider supply shortages, helped support the rally in oil prices,” Ricardo commented. Evangelista, analyst at ActivTrades, with AFP. “If a full military assault is launched, confirming the most feared scenario,” he continues, “oil supply shortages are likely to worsen and further price increases are expected.”

This Thursday again, prices for wheat reached record levels on Thursday morning in the European market, with a completely unprecedented peak for wheat at 344 euros per tonne on Euronext, analysts and brokers told AFP.

In addition, many French companies are established in Russia, including Total, Auchan, Renault and Decathlon, and risk seeing their business threatened by the Ukrainian crisis.

The Russian invasion also had a direct impact on European stock markets which collapsed on Thursday. At midday, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange fell by 5.17%, Milan by 5.10%, Paris by 5.02%. The Eurostoxx 50, European benchmark index tumbled 5.20%.

• What possible sanctions?

The European Union on Thursday condemned Russia’s “intolerable” behavior and warned that the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin would have to face “unprecedented isolation.”

These will be in addition to those taken earlier in the week. Several first sanctions had indeed been adopted by the EU following Moscow’s recognition of the pro-Russian separatist entities of Lugansk and Donetsk, including individual sanctions. Persons sanctioned are deprived of access to EU territory, their assets are frozen there and it is forbidden to finance them. The 351 members of the Russian Duma are targeted who voted on February 15 to appeal to President Vladimir Putin in favor of recognition of the two self-proclaimed “republics”.

The EU has also introduced a “restriction” of the financing capacities of the Russian state, its government and the Central Bank. By limiting “access to European financial and capital markets”, this measure will penalize the refinancing of Russian debt.