Covid-19 in France: lifting of the last restrictions, but fear of a 4th wave at the start of the school year

Published on : 06/30/2021 – 18:07

In France, the last restrictions related to Covid-19 were lifted on Wednesday June 30: end of gauges in cinemas, restaurants or stores. And this despite concerns about the Delta variant. The country risks indeed experiencing a fourth wave of Covid-19 at the start of the school year, even if it will be more “nuanced” than the first three thanks to vaccination, estimated the president of the Scientific Council, Jean-François Delfraissy.

This is the last stage of deconfinement, which began on May 19 in France, the gauges in enclosed spaces are lifted, to the delight of traders, who begin four weeks of summer sales on Wednesday. Restrictions are also lifted in company canteens and places of worship.

The dark rooms, which have attracted 8.5 million spectators in one month of recovery, will be able to refuel during the film festival (from June 30 to July 4). Standing concerts are again possible, with a 75% gauge for those indoors.

For all events bringing together more than 1,000 people, including trade fairs or congresses now without gauge, the health pass (vaccination or negative test) will be required. And from Thursday, we will no longer be able to travel in Europe without the European pass.

Caution remains in effect and the Landes department, where the Delta appeared first in France, will maintain the limitations for one more week, until July 6, unlike the rest of the country.

The incidence rate of the virus does not “seem to be falling any further”

The lifting of the last restrictions was made possible by the continued decline of the epidemic: the number of hospitalized Covid patients fell again on Tuesday, to 8,627 patients, including only 1,250 in critical care and 2,314 new infections. . Compare this to peaks of 6,000 patients in critical care (which includes resuscitation) at the end of April and around 35,000 new daily cases at the beginning of April.

However, the incidence rate of the virus (number of cases in one week per 100,000 inhabitants) “does not seem to drop” in recent days, government spokesman Gabriel Attal warned on Wednesday, while stressing its “very high level. low of 18.5 on average “as in” August 2020 “.

This may be due to the low number of cases, but “there is one part that concerns us, it is from the perspective of the Delta variant,” he added.

Appeared in India at the beginning of April, it “is 60% more contagious than the British variant, itself twice as contagious than the initial strain”, worried Gabriel Attal. In France, it already represents 20% of new cases against 9 to 10% a week earlier.

>> To see: Covid-19 around the world: The progression of the Delta variant gives rise to new restrictions

A fourth wave that seems inevitable

The Institut Pasteur published new studies on Tuesday which predict, in the worst-case scenario, “a significant peak in hospitalization” similar to the fall of 2020, in the absence of control measures such as intensive screening and a strengthening of barrier measures, which could be targeted at certain populations.

For his part, the President of the Scientific Council, Jean-François Delfraissy expects a “fourth wave” of the Covid-19 epidemic at the start of the school year, which seems inevitable but should be lower than the first three.

“I believe that we will have a fourth wave but that it will be much more nuanced than the first three, because there is the level of vaccination (of the population) which is not at all the same”, declared Jean -François Delfraissy on France Inter Wednesday, qualifying as “falsely reassuring” the recent good figures on the incidence of the virus, because of the presence of the Delta variant, extremely contagious.

>> To see, our debate: “Variant Delta: new threat, new restrictions?”

Jean-François Delfraissy said he was especially concerned about the over 60s (about 20% of unvaccinated) and people with co-morbidities (a third of unvaccinated), in particular those suffering from obesity, who are “little vaccinated. “.

“We have to remember what happened during the summer of last year. We were at roughly comparable figures at the end of June 2020 and we saw the second wave arrive in September. this Delta variant which has a level of transmission which is much higher “, he decrypted, calling for” realistic and conscious “.

For Professor Delfraissy, the vaccine is effective “when you have had two injections” (for vaccines which require two injections), “hence the message: you must be vaccinated” and “have had two injections for the start of the school year. “, he added.

Some 33.7 million French people have received at least a first dose (i.e. 50% of the population), and the government’s objective is to increase to 40 million by the end of August and to 35 million people completely protected, i.e. 66% of adults.

Good news, according to the government spokesperson, “after having slowed down”, the number of appointments made for a first injection “has started to rise again between over 10% and over 20%”. “Each vaccination is a protection against the fourth wave,” added Gabriel Attal.

With AFP