This Wednesday, our new Opinion 2022 poll carried out by the Elabe Institute explores voting intentions, less than two months before the presidential election. Emmanuel Macron’s lead is shrinking slightly but remains comfortable in front of a right torn by three candidates with equivalent forces. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s rating is still climbing to the left.
Emmanuel Macron still leads the voting intentions less than two months before the first round of the presidential election, ahead of a right whose representatives stand in a pocket handkerchief, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon confirms his progress on the left. Here are the key lessons from our Opinion 2022 survey, conducted by Elabe for BFMTV and The Express with our partner SFR this Wednesday.
Macron maintains but settles down
The outgoing President of the Republic seems unstoppable at the top of the voting intentions for the first round of the presidential election. However, 53 days before the election, his rating is settling slightly within the electorate. Pointed at 24% in these projections, it lost two points in the space of a week.
Still driven by the assent of French people aged 65 and over – of whom he seduces a share estimated at 32%, the highest proportion of the candidate set – and executives (24%), Emmanuel Macron still wins thirteen points among the latter, and slipped eight notches among the intermediate professions.
Everything remains to be done on the right and on the far right
But the mattress of his advance remains comfortable. Because behind him, Marine Le Pen, in second position, only brings together 15% of the panel around her, down 0.5 points. A score that it owes a lot to young people – convincing 22% of the 25-34 age group – and the working classes (26%).
She can be reassured, however: Valérie Pécresse, crowned by the right to represent her in the supreme election, falls by one point, to collect 14% of these intentions. Between a meeting at the Zénith de Paris on Sunday harshly judged by her camp and observers, and her use of a widely criticized rhetoric on immigration, Valérie Pécresse is definitely going through difficult times. Because with this survey, it falls below 15% for the first time since its designation by Les Républicains and their allies.
And Eric Zemmour in all this? While his entourage is strengthened by the rallying gleaned from the political family of his rival Marine Le Pen, he resumes his surveying ascent. It appears here at 13.5% in the hypothetical votes cast by the Elabe Institute panel, gaining 0.5 points.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon registers its momentum in the long term
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, for his part, continues his momentum within a left whose landscape he dominates each week a little more. Its curve is estimated at 10.5% this Wednesday. Admittedly, this is a modest weekly increase of 0.5 points, but the standard bearer of the Insoumis has climbed 1.5 points in three weeks.
He is ahead of Yannick Jadot and his 5.5%. The ecologist is also performing a great operation if we consider his trajectory over the last month: a gain of one point.
While the communist Fabien Roussel and Christiane Taubira, whom the Radical Left Party has just let go, have mixed fortunes with elected officials granting their sponsorship for access to the first round – the first approaching 500 tickets, the second reduced to launch an appeal to relaunch its fundraising – they are neck and neck here. Both indeed manage to accumulate 4.5% of the intentions of the panel.
61% of French people sure of their vote
Still just as volatile: the share of French people claiming to be sure of their vote remains unchanged since a previous measurement made on December 21. Thus, 61% say they are certain of the identity of the beneficiary of their future vote, while 39% admit that they could still turn to a different option.
It should be noted that these figures were established by Elabe with the group of our fellow citizens who confirmed their intention to participate in the elections next April.
Le Pen, Pécresse, Zemmour: Macron serene in the second round
The institute also took a look at the level above, trying to see clearly as to a possible second round. He explored three different scenarios, each time opposing Emmanuel Macron to one of the three candidates from the right or the far right. And the prospects are good for him in all three cases.
Faced with Marine Le Pen, he is up one point, with 57% against 43% for the representative of the National Rally.
In this scheme, things get particularly tough for Valérie Pécresse. She loses four points with a view to a second round against the head of state, and this in one week. The balance of power between the two rivals is now 58% against 42%.
The most favorable configuration for Emmanuel Macron is still a duel pitting him against Eric Zemmour, whom he would easily beat with 64% of the voting intentions against 36% of the votes going to his opponent, according to this snapshot.
Study carried out by the Elabe Institute for BFMTV, The Express and SFR. The questioning took place by Internet on a sample of 1449 people representative of the residents of metropolitan France. 1339 of them are registered on the electoral lists.
The quota method was applied to carry out the survey. The polling took place from February 14 to February 16, 2022. The margin of error is between 1.1 and 3.1 percentage points.
