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Under pressure from the ruling junta in Bamako, Paris and its European partners are preparing to announce their withdrawal from maliwhile preparing the contours of the future French regional military system, while jihadist groups retain their power of nuisance in the Sahel and threaten the countries of the Gulf of Guinea.
According to several concordant sources, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, must announce Wednesday evening February 16 or Thursday February 17 a withdrawal from Mali of the French forces of the operation “Barkhane” on the sidelines of a European Union – African Union summit scheduled for Brussels. Symbol of a Europe of defense dear to the French president, the European grouping of special forces, Takuba, created by Paris in 2020 to share the security burden, should also leave the country and dissolve.
A mini-summit in Paris with the heads of state of Sahelian countries (Niger, Chad and Mauritania) and several West African countries must take place before announcements, insisted on Tuesday the spokesperson for the French government. , Gabriel Attal.
The status quo is not “not possible in a very degraded context in Mali, with the seizure of power by a junta, the refusal to apply a timetable for the return to democratic order, which had nevertheless been announced, and the use of a private Russian militia”Wagner, deemed close to the Kremlin, he argued. “It’s impossible to continue under these conditions, all the other allies think the same”Estonian Defense Minister Kalle Laanet told the press on Saturday.
About 4,300 French soldiers in the Sahel
Some 25,000 men are currently deployed in the Sahel, including around 4,300 French (2,400 in Mali as part of the anti-jihadist operation “Barkhane”), according to the Elysée.
Hampered and reviled for several weeks by the Bamako junta, which came to power after two coups, France has consulted its allies intensely to decide on the future of its action in Mali, after nine years of uninterrupted anti-jihadist struggle. in which it ended up succeeding in involving European partners.
Today, the Europeans of Takuba, like the British and American partners, who contribute to the effort in Mali, seem to have overcome certain disagreements, in particular on the risk of leaving the field open to Russian influence in Mali, according to several sources familiar with the matter interviewed by Agence France-Presse (AFP).
This united front was a political imperative for the Elysée, with a double concern: to reduce the exposure of France, a former colonial power, against a backdrop of growing anti-French sentiment in the Sahel, and to avoid an unflattering comparison with the unilateral departure and chaos of the United States in Afghanistan in August 2021.
Continuing the fight against jihadist
According to a French source close to the Elysée, France has promised to coordinate its withdrawal with the United Nations (UN) mission in Mali and the European Union Training Mission in Mali (EUTM), which will continue to benefit from French air and medical support on the spot, before the subsequent transfer of these means.
In contrast, ” the truth game changer [“changement de cap”]is that overnight the Malian armed forces will be deprived of our air support, which poses a risk of a security vacuum”insists this source to AFP.
In the midst of the French presidency of the European Union and two months before the French presidential election, in which Mr. Macron will undoubtedly stand again, a forced withdrawal from Mali, where 48 French soldiers were killed (53 in the Sahel), is a painful setback.
Paris, however, intends to continue the anti-jihadist fight in the region, where movements affiliated with Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State group have retained a strong power of nuisance despite the elimination of many leaders. “We need to reinvent our military partnership with these countriesaccording to the French presidency. It is not a question of moving what is being done in Mali elsewhere, but of reinforcing what is being done in Niger and providing more support to the southern flank. »
To other West African countries
Armed Forces Minister Florence Parly traveled to Niamey in early February for talks with Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum, as Niger already hosts a French air base.
Paris also aims to offer its services to other West African countries (Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Benin, etc.) to help them counter the spread of jihadism towards the Gulf of Guinea.
Three homemade bomb attacks last week killed at least nine people, including a Frenchman, in northern Benin. On Saturday, France announced that it had eliminated in neighboring Burkina Faso forty jihadists involved in these attacks. The challenge for the coming months will be to make the French presence less visible through “cooperations” strengthened, without replacing local forces.
Paris will also have to draw the consequences of its disappointed strategic ambitions in Mali, despite undeniable tactical victories against armed groups. The Malian political power has never really deployed the means necessary to deploy its authority and services in the semi-desert areas raked by the soldiers of the “Barkhane” force. And the Malian army remains very fragile, despite the efforts made for years to train and harden it.
In the Gulf countries, “it would be important to learn from the mistakes of the Sahel, where counter-productive solutions have led to a disavowal of state security policies and the intervention of their international partners”believes Bakary Sambé, regional director of the Timbuktu Institute.