Is the top of the wave coming? Mathematician Kollár is clear: Finally GOOD news! However, there is a catch – Topky

Several measures have been relaxed since Tuesday, and the unvaccinated after the new one can go to all stores. However, the situation is not favorable and several districts continue to rise and many of them have a positivity of 70 percent. However, many experts have begun to claim that the omicron wave is already in decline and the situation will reportedly return to normal in a short time. What’s more, Prime Minister Eduard Heger and Health Minister Vladimir Lengvarsky have announced their intention to lift several restrictions altogether.

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Mathematician Richard Kollár pointed out that we have been fighting omicron wool here for almost two months and the pandemic has been with us for two years. He therefore wondered whether the current numbers and the epidemic situation marked the peak of the omicron wave. “Mathematics would certainly include the answer to the question of whether we are already at the top of the omikron wave in Slovakia among the undecidable ones. There are a lot of reasons for that. One is the uncertainty in the data, last week the numbers of hospitalized were revised back to April 2021, the peak of the autumn delta wave in hospitals was thus shifted by a week. Antigen test statistics change week-twoand back even on a daily basis. Significantly in recent days“ stated on the social network.

We are still growing

He added that although the number of positive antigen or PCR tests decreased, so did the number of tests performed. For this reason too, Kollár thinks that the positivity of the tests is growing, however, we are already close to change and all indicators will start to decline. And while it is not clear whether or not we have the peak of the pandemic, mathematics say it is good news. This is because exactly a week ago, the same question was clearly answered – that we are still rising. “That is why I have been saying for a long time that the peak (incidence) will be with us sometime between February 10 and 20, and I am not talking about a specific day. We still won’t be able to determine him. Today we are halfway through this interval and I think that this estimate will really come true” stated.

However, Kollár pointed out that we are currently seeing a decrease in cases among children and young people under the age of 20. In particular, young children under the age of 9 and older than the age of 14 are currently one tenth less positive than they were a week ago. Nevertheless, every 27 children had a positive PCR test in the last week. The numbers of positive ones in their twenties, thirties and forties should also stagnate slowly but surely. However, the problem occurs with seniors. “The number of infected 50s (about 20% per week), 60s (more than 20% per week) and even faster 70s (almost 25% per week), 80s (33% per week) and 90s ( more than 50% per week). The older, the faster the growth. So even if we start to decline in the overall balance sheet soon (or we may already be declining in real terms), the vulnerable groups are still growing and will grow for a while. That’s where the most variables come into play – vaccination and also the number of infections in the delta wave, ” Kollár warned that these aspects will determine what onslaught on hospitals we will experience in the near future.

Another mini-wave?

However, according to Kollár, it may still happen that with the full opening of schools and classrooms, the number of infected children will increase slightly again. This is mainly due to the fact that the quarantine rules were much stricter in our country than abroad. According to mathematicians, the good news is that the increase in test positivity is slowing down, but remains at 55 percent. This also proves that the wave has not yet said its last word. This is evidenced by the fact that every eight antigen tests are positive. And that’s supposed to be something Kollár couldn’t even imagine until recently.

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Source: FB / Richard Kollar

“So positive is still dead, in general, the chances of infection in Slovakia are probably highest during the whole pandemic this week (or it was already last week). However, evaluate your own situation, if the number of infections in your area starts to decrease rapidly, this is great news for you, this wave may already be behind you for your bubble.“ said the number of those infected in the omikron wave is likely to exceed 2 million. And according to the mathematician, these are crazy numbers at which we should be glad that the new variant causes only minor health problems, and thus the predictions from abroad have been confirmed.

A mystery called hospitalization

However, the mystery is the number of hospitalized patients, which changes daily – tens increase one day, then decrease again, then increase slightly again, and so on. According to published data, which Kollár would not rely on, the number of patients has increased by about a quarter in recent weeks. And if such an increase continued for another two weeks, we would reach roughly the same values ​​in the number of hospitalized as at the peak of the delta wave. Nevertheless, according to Kollár, the decline in the percentage of artificial lung ventilation is excellent news, and we allegedly did not experience such a low ratio to total hospitalizations during the entire pandemic.

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Source: FB / Richard Kollar

“Overall, there are likely to be far fewer COVID deaths reported during the omicron than in the delta wave. However, there will probably be more with COVID, as COVID is very often accompanied by other health complications today. So, in the end, I’m not that optimistic about excessive mortality. However, until there is more data, it is difficult to estimate the extent,“He said that the good news was that we did not finally have to deal with an important issue in this wave – why we did not prepare for it. We are said to have been helped by vaccination, but also by the high underdevelopment of the population. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how much we have learned from the last four waves. We also found that several restrictions and measures did not make sense and had virtually minimal impact on the epidemic.

“The decisive factors at that time are the behavior of the population and its immunization by the current wave. Therefore, today we can say that e.g. The reduction in the capacity of music festivals last summer in our country, to a much stricter extent than elsewhere, had a negligible effect on the further course of the epidemic. We actually confirmed this later by suddenly allowing large mass events during the Pope’s visit to Slovakia. Even stricter summer limits could have contributed to higher delta wave peaks with higher wave concentrations. Therefore, the coming weeks will show what we have learned about the pandemic so far. If we really learn from our own past or from other countries, it is possible that we will soon be able to shift our attention completely from the pandemic and its action to the longer-term problems that have threatened us terribly during it. ” concluded.